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Weather

Badkittens and Gloria Will it snow at Christmas Thread

179 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 01/12/2018 11:00

Just realised it's the 1st December!

It's a just for fun thread at this point as it's going to be highly inaccurate until we get much closer to the date.

Just a reminder that I'm only an amateur. I do this as a hobby. Please don't rely on my forecasts for decisions that matter - use the met office for those.

Also, I'm on my phone today without access to weather models, so it's a bit of a teaser start to the thread Wink

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 18/12/2018 12:36

thanks Gloria, I'm back now :)

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 18/12/2018 20:59

It generally looks rather benign over the christmas period.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/12/2018 07:25

Friday evening Rainy/showers in southern scotland and northern England.

Saturday

Drying off, mild in the south, temps close to 0 in parts of Scotland

Sunday
Showery/rainy very mild in the south.

Christmas Eve
The odd shower but mostly dry, but a lot of standing water in the south after another wet night.

Christmas Day

Very mild in the south, colder the further north you go. Maybe the odd rogue shower, other than that no weather!

Boxing Day

ditto, with maybe a higher chance of rain in north of Scotland. Cooling off in the south.

NYE

Mild, I'm just watching around Scotland a bit as the atlantic seems to wake up and looks like it might start winning again.

NYE
Mild!

oh dear. oh well! The ensembles do show the operational run being on the mild side of the spread.

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GloriaSmud · 19/12/2018 07:36

Yay, you're back!

GloriaSmud · 19/12/2018 07:50

And some Christmas/New Year thoughts here.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/12/2018 07:58

That is a yay :) (though with a couple of Jan trips planned I'm hoping for weekday only snow Grin )

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/12/2018 08:02

From a political and planning point of view, a SSW could trash our economy further if it leads to disruption.

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GloriaSmud · 19/12/2018 10:26

We'll book snow to arrive mid-week, mild disruption, not lasting too long, mid-January sort-of-time.

Xmas Grin
magimedi · 19/12/2018 11:35

You will be pleased to know that The Times Weather Eye agrees with you about an SSW:

Or maybe they've just been reading this thread - you beat them to it with the news of it! Grin

"There could be a shock on the way sometime in the new year. This winter has been largely mild, although wet and windy in what has been typical Atlantic winter weather. However, trouble is brewing in the stratosphere over the Arctic. This is where the polar vortex — a whirling mass of frigid air in the stratosphere — is becoming weaker. Everything is in place for a sudden stratospheric warming, a dramatic convulsion when the temperature of the stratosphere soars by about 50C in one of the world’s most dramatic meteorological phenomena.

That is likely to set in progress a return of the Beast from the East in the next few weeks, with biting easterly winds from Siberia or Scandinavia, similar to the big freeze of late February and early March this year, which was set off by another stratospheric warming event.

“We are very confident of a sudden stratospheric warming, and the signal is getting stronger day by day,” explained Adam Scaife, the head of long-range predictions at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre. “The impact on our weather normally comes one to three weeks later as easterly winds bring cold and snow.”

Exactly when the easterlies will hit the UK remains uncertain — possibly as soon as late December, although more likely in mid to late January. How long the freeze will last is also unknown, but it could run through to February, with hard frosts, ice and snow.

There is an outside chance that the sudden stratospheric warming may pass off without upsetting the UK’s normal weather patterns. However, another factor is raising the likelihood of a freeze. All through the Equator a belt of thunderstorms circles the globe in a regular cycle, and by February that band of storms will be in the western Pacific — where it can influence the cold easterlies that invade the UK.

In summary, it looks increasingly like winter is going to turn very cold."

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/12/2018 11:48

Interesting report. Thanks Magi :) I'm not sure what the paragraph re the equatorial belt is talking about at all though! Confused

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Delatron · 19/12/2018 12:30

If we have a similar winter to last year (I remember the polar vortex issue and a blocked pattern) then is there more of a chance of another hot summer? Just musing!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/12/2018 12:48

I don't know if there is any correlation I'm afraid.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/12/2018 12:49

There's a lot I don't know today Grin

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magimedi · 19/12/2018 12:56

Ooooooo Delatron You are making me all excited. I loved last summer.

GloriaSmud · 19/12/2018 14:17

Delatron ~ I don't think it's a certainty but Brian Gaze (at TheWeatherOutlook) had some thoughts here a few months ago, about the strange weather we've had this year, possibly as a result of the SSW.

Interesting article, Magi

Delatron · 19/12/2018 17:51

I think last year was so unusual both the multiple beasts from the East and the the hot summer that followed. All due to our usual SW weather patterns being blocked.

Thanks Gloria that article is interesting. I guess we’ll see how this forecasted cold spell pans out and if these ‘abnormal’ patterns stick around.

Apart from my scorched lawn that still hasn’t recovered I’d love another hot one!
Back to snow watch ❄️

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/12/2018 21:11
Shock
Badkittens and Gloria Will it snow at Christmas Thread
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Delatron · 19/12/2018 21:57

What does it mean OYBBK? Is it a cold/snowy area?

OhYouBadBadKitten · 20/12/2018 07:59

It's a polar vortex split which could if it comes off give.us very cold weather fromid or late Jan on.

Forgot to charge my phone, I'll say more later :)

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BiddyPop · 20/12/2018 09:26

Squeeel!!! Grin Really???!!!!!

OMG, ok don't go getting too excited....it might not happen, forecasts can change.....

But I am getting the ski gear from the storage unit this weekend, just in case!!! (It closes over Christmas, so it's better to have the gear at home, to get it clean and ready, just in case.....)

bounces off to annoy someone else at work being way too cheerful and Christmassy and ready for snow....

Delatron · 20/12/2018 09:54

Oh yay to the polar vortex spilt! I see they are getting excited/ nervous about it in the eastern US too. Is this what happened last year?
I just ordered some lovely Sorel snow boots. Should be able to put them to some use (fingers crossed).

Though I’d quite like the snow to be done by February and spring to come early! Can’t be doing with snow in March like we had last year.

GloriaSmud · 20/12/2018 10:27

Ooo a possible vortex split. I think (with my limited knowledge) the warming (yellow colours) is good as well?

GloriaSmud · 20/12/2018 10:40

Could a snowier second half of winter be on the way? ~ nice explanation on BBCNews.

tapdancingmum · 21/12/2018 00:13

Looking ok(ish) for Boxing Day. I think I'll get the tickets booked for Whipsnade. We'll be the ones getting blown around in the game that's bound to be blowing but I'll be wearing my posh ring I will be getting for my birthday Grin

OhYouBadBadKitten · 21/12/2018 09:12

lol tap dancing! You can use the ring to tie a bit of string onto and tether yourself down. Actually, it doesn't look too windy there for once. I know it has its own special microclimate though! Happy upcoming birthday!

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