Will Hurricane Ophelia manage to hit the UK?

[RamblingFar]

Not been much in the news about it yet, other than a few small articles. Anyone else notice it's due to be getting very close to the UK?

www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/084704.shtml?cone#contents

Looks like it's still meant to be hurricane strength when it hits Ireland early next week, before taking a swipe at Scotland. I thought the water was meant to be too cold and they normally fizzle out into winter storms.

First British hurricane since Debbie in 1961?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I think there is potential for gusts to be higher than the met office are currently forecasting, at the moment NOAA have 85mph max winds at 72 hours. Depends how much of that is bought on shore.

[SusannahL]

Interestingly it's the 30th anniversary of the 1987 hurricane which I remember very well, in particular how much the temperature rose in the evening before the storm itself arrived, over a very short period.

We are in the south east which I think was particularly badly affected .

[Makinglists]

Gosh I Remember it well.... I was 18 and doing a first aid course that evening. A friend gave me a lift home came in for a coffee then noticing the very alarming sounds comeing from outside and swiftly went home. I was on the south coast Poole/Bournemouth area. Love a good storm with the caveat that nobody gets hurt etc.

[FlowerPotMum]

I'm in South York's, went outside this morning and the air feels almost muggy and thick. Very strange. I would see if we will see much up here?
Stay safe everyone!

[weebarra]

East coast Scotland here and it's been unseasonably warm here today. Bit damp and windy but not too bad.

[PigletJohn]

Might be like the 1987 storm

They say that despite the wind speeds, it's not correct to call it a hurricane because the wind pattern was different.

Some people say there was only a fuss because it happened to affect the soft shandy-swilling southerners.

I can still see gaps in the big trees today.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It won’t be like the 87 storm, that was very different. We know how this one is going to behave, we just don’t know it’s exact track.

[Justaboy]

Here you are see the winds and where they are:)

earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-0.73,50.04,1792

Run the run the animation and see where she blows!.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1507852800

[Maudlinmaud]

OYBBK I saw a clip of Michael Fish saying the UK and Ireland can never actually have hurricanes, is that true?
This is being described as an ex hurricane with emphasis on the ex.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I'm away for the day, so I don't have any links to show you, but, it's not impossible for us. In 1961 Hurricane Debbie may still have been a tropical cyclone when it hit Ireland.

[Maudlinmaud]

Thank you, didn't think so.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Ophelia is now Cat 3 and has broken records for the strongest Hurricane this far east. Still looks to transition to an extra tropical storm, but will have a look at the models when I'm home.

[DamsonGin]

I'm quite amazed it's that strong, I have family in SW Ireland getting a little nervous.

And there are the odd bits of temperate rainforest in Ireland, StepAwayFromCake. Wales too.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I actually think it may possibly just about end up still being classified as a Hurricane as it hits Ireland.
Very close thing...

[Maudlinmaud]

I'm enjoying the mild spell at the moment. We have the fire lit and the heat would put you out. I've noticed it's very still outside, calm before the storm?

[CalmanOnSpeeddial]

Here’s the NHC’s current guess on hurricane-speed wind probability. A coin-toss basically.

[Maudlinmaud]

What does it all mean? In layman's terms.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Maud basically the storm probably won't be an actual Hurricane (though it may just about be) but it will have Hurricane strength winds associated with it. That in itself isn't unusual.
How much those winds affect Ireland and then on into Scotland eventually will depend on the exact path of the storm. You will have seen with Maria how difficult it was to forecast exact path even the day before.
Along with the high winds there will be heavy rain. Also surge, but fortunately it coincides with a very low neap tide I think, so that won't be much of an issue.

I think worst case, isolated spots in Ireland could see gusts of 80-90 mph, but most places seeing less than that. Unfortunately with trees still in leaf there could be a fair amount of tree damage.

Caveat: I'm only an amateur, this is my hobby. Please refer to the met office and met eiran for official forecasts.

[L0quacious]

I've just been reading on journal.ie that you're not to bother sending your children to school on Monday. Is it going to be this bad??

They always OVER warn us with these storm alerts. There never that bad.

[CalmanOnSpeeddial]

In practical terms, if you’re in Ireland, especially the bottom left hand corner, don’t be on the road on Sunday evening, make sure all your phones etc are fully charged, you’ve got candles in and you’re otherwise prepared for potential power cuts. Go round the outside of your house and look out for anything that might cause problems if it went flying - bins, furniture, washing lines, BBQs. Keep the cats in. I’m sure there’s loads of other stuff I’m forgetting.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Not just southwest Ireland Calman, some models are showing the strongest winds further east. I’m starting to get a bit concerned for for those in the path, every update seems to be an upgrade.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Loquacious - possibly might not be over egging it this time. Don’t tell the kids, just be prepared.

[Maudlinmaud]

Again thank you OYBBK. I will put blocks on top of the trampoline pegs just to be extra safe. My trees always take a hammering, and I've a few that are potentially vulnerable

[DamsonGin]

Just been reading that the school buses are cancelled for Monday for most of the south west.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Damson is that south west Ireland or England?