BadKittens Just For Fun Christmas forecast thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: This is for fun, any accuracy, especially this far out is entirely coincidental! I'm an amateur forecaster. Things will change between now and Christmas day

Christmas Eve just squeezes into GFS model range so here we go :) as other models come into range, I'll be using those too.

23rd December High pressure looks to dominate. Cold - temps close to freezing. A little potential for snow, even in the south. Ensembles almost all show cold, so confidence is more reasonable than usual at this time frame.

Christmas Eve Cold weather with a low potential for snow continues.

23rd

Cool-Cold and Dull. Cold in central Scotland

Christmas eve

Cool/cold and damp to start but then gales with either rain. Much milder air associated with the warm sector of this storm.

Christmas day

cool/cold in the northern half, cool in the southern half. Showers possible. However ECMWF keeps the storm over Scotland through Christmas day, giving potentially a very wet and windy Christmas.

boxing day

Mild air knocking on the door in the SW, potentially a lot of rain and fairly strong winds for nw scotland.

27th

The further west you go, the milder it is.

28th

ditto.

After that there seems to be a distinct warming trend, in the exact opposite of yesterdays models. I'm not convinced.... Think it might have had a works do last night.

LOL ~ not for nothing is it nicknamed 'the pub run'

Whats your prediction for thursday?

Im flying

sorry, got up too late this morning to do anything and I've just remembered the thread Now I don't need to get up at the crack of dawn for a couple of weeks, I may be a little erratic.

Thursday looks very benign, calm winds, cool - cold, maybe a bit of snow over Scottish hills? Fog or mist I suppose could be a bit of an issue early on.

Actually, the whole run through next weekend looks cool-cold with Christmas eve looking rather wet and windy, especially further north. Some of that could fall as snow over northern and welsh hills. Walk to Midnight Mass looking decidedly unpleasant in the south!

So more of a wintry feel, not a deep cold, nor snowy for most, but this model run shows something that would at least not feel mild.

Cold and wet is still better than warm and wet!

absolutely! last year we absolutely roasted ourselves by insisting we needed our wood burner on. It was ridiculous, sitting there in short sleeves with the doors through the house open to try and spread the heat.

Wooo cold! I'll pack
More
Jumpers

The blackbirds this weekend are attacking the holly berries with gusto - usually they so this in November so they are quite late this year - guess that's a sign of cold to come!

or that the worms have been easy so far

Fog. Fog fog fog fog fog fog fog fog... This is getting boring now. Is it going to lift anytime soon?

Thursday afternoon after the rain clears through should see the murk lifting. Perhaps for a time earlier in the week too. It is rather dank out there!

Unfortunately gfs looks set to bring milder air in next weekend now. and more unsettled with gales and rain. Sorry folk

Thursday?! 😭

Milder with wind and rain? Not at all Christmassy!

Not looking like a white Christmas even in the CairnGorm mountains, though there is yet time for the models to change.

For all you weather fans... Channel4 tonight at 7.30pm has Britain's Wildest Weather 2016. www.channel4.com/tv-guide/2016/12/18/C4/29344139

Sorry oybbk, you're just gonna have to do something to change it. Offerings to weather gods?

I'll try again tomorrow. Perhaps it will be better then

Thanks nannynick

Ballater (where I was last Dec) was shown - brought back memories. I do hope we don't see a repeat this year, though I doubt we will as the snow has not been so much and it does not seem as wet as it was last Dec.

The fog is getting me down now (Hampshire). No breeze or sun so the laundry won't dry outside so I'm tripping over the airers all the time.

don't wish this away too hard. Looks like gales and rain will replace it.

Just found this thread! Hurrah!

Ok, I'm actually a bit worried about Christmas eve and Christmas day. Two storms showing, tracks and strength obviously uncertain at this point, but at least one of them perhaps rather nasty for the NW, and across much of Scotland. Right across the UK gales are now looking likely over the 23rd/Christmas eve/Christmas day period.

I think that it would be sensible, if you have time this week, just to wander around your garden if you have one, and consider what might need putting away or fixing - especially if you are in the north. So that you aren't having nightmares on Christmas day trying to rescue stuff.

I'll be keeping a close eye on these, gfs sometimes overcooks storms, but ECMWF and UKMO both also develop storms over the same time period.

Gales? Just heard a similar warning on the weather on the radio. Totally miserable.

yeah the worst possible weather in terms of safety and being able to relax.
What is it about Christmas that seems to bring out the wind?