BadKittens Just For Fun Christmas forecast thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: This is for fun, any accuracy, especially this far out is entirely coincidental! I'm an amateur forecaster. Things will change between now and Christmas day

Christmas Eve just squeezes into GFS model range so here we go :) as other models come into range, I'll be using those too.

23rd December High pressure looks to dominate. Cold - temps close to freezing. A little potential for snow, even in the south. Ensembles almost all show cold, so confidence is more reasonable than usual at this time frame.

Christmas Eve Cold weather with a low potential for snow continues.

I rather enjoy the wind, and we will have a wonderful view of it stirring up the sea!

I know, it's nasty, but we have grown up with so many proper gales, and even up to hurricanes, that it doesn't tend to bother me overly. And I did ask for interesting weather!

Well anything that blows away this low, damp, miserable excuse for weather suits me better. My lungs are congested enough at the best of times and this murk just makes everything seem worse.

Not sure I want gales and rain though. I live in far SE, is it going to be as bad as the north?

Saw the two nasty-looking storms show up.
Netweather's Nick Finnis has a blog here about the possibility of storms over Christmas.

The storm to the west of Scotland on the 24th is my big concern given I will be attempting to drive to Aberdeen via M6 through the lakes up to Glasgow and then through to Perth and then making a decision to go through mountains or go the long way via near Dundee.

Gales with rain/sleet/snow will not be fun!

There is a pop up tent out my garden that noone can fold, keep telling DH to take it to the tip. It's tied down to stop it blowing away, but if it does, I won't be upset

OYBBK I'm supposed to be travelling (driving) from the midlands to Cheshire on 22nd and back again on 23rd. From a weather point of view would you recommend trying to do both journeys on 22nd? M6 with elderly mother if that has any bearing.

Woolybacks, at the moment I think you'll be ok to travel back on the 23rd. You could get gusts to around 50mph, which though unpleasant I think are ok to drive in. I'd keep an eye out for met office warnings over the next couple of days which supersede anything I say!

warnings for nw scotland

Thank you OYBBK

At this time of year I always check Netweather and the Met Office too but it's nice to have a 'translation' too.

Beyond - have you tried flattening it then gripping and twisting opposite ends? I am a pop up master.

Yep - I have another one that I can fold brilliantly. The instructions for this one are apparently the same, but it's a different shape and it doesn't work

please tell me that any gales will be over by the 27th, I'm flying that day and am nervous enough about flying without storms to worry about

Ha that will teach me for moaning about dull weather.

From what I can make of the charts atm, it looks windy across Scotland on 23/24th and getting totally battered on Christmas day......Think if it comes off there will be a Met Office amber for the 25th.
Nanny the wind's not looking so bad ( relatively ) on the 24th after early morning currently compared to the day before and after.

morning all, sorry, lazier mornings now dd is off college!

First storm system does look to arrive on the 23rd. By lunchtime the west side of Scotland will be getting a bit of a battering, with the storm traveling ne. (usual direction) Windy weather right across the u.k.

I think you are right Peri. Christmas day looks potentially very nasty. In Scotland and perhaps north northern England I'd be considering ways of cooking christmas dinner without power just in case! Lots of rain in the run up to Christmas too.

The further south and east you go, the more benign the weather, so whilst they can expect windy weather, nothing extreme. (gusting perhaps to 40mph in many places) and actually after tomorrow, relatively dry.

27th looks calm at the moment, with high pressure in place. Both ecmwf and gfs agree with that.

Metoffice forecast for Christmas and the days beyond

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Dec 2016 to Monday 2 Jan 2017:

The Christmas period, including the early part of next week, looks to be very windy, with gales and bands of rain sweeping through. The areas likely to be worst affected remain uncertain but the north-west looks more prone to stormy conditions. However, we can all expect wet and windy weather, and it will feel rather cold. Between the wet and windy periods, there will be some brighter and showery spells. Christmas snow showers are possible in the north. However most of England and Wales will not see snow. Towards the end of next week and into the new year holiday, there will probably be a change to quieter, drier and colder weather, with night frost.

And the thoughts of theweatheroutlook and netweather.

and there was so much hope a few weeks ago of something a bit more cold/frosty at Christmas.

I know :(

It was interesting that gfs picked up the signals of this around the 9th december, then flip flopped about for rather a long time.

Amber warnings out for wind for NW Scotland on 23/24th now. With yellow for rest of Scotland, NI and N England......

Not really surprised to see the Amber/yellow warnings ~ it isn't going to be a very pleasant Christmas for some
I suppose if there has to be a plus about it, it's that there has been a good few days warning so that people can prepare.

Storm Barbara has shite timing. There's going to be so many travelling especially as most schools in Scotland don't break up until 22/23rd.
If Babs is Amber then the 25th could be Red.....which is nice and seasonal, and could be called Storm Christ..........

Having to make contingency plans to get MiL up to the NW of Scotland - so she doesn't have to spend Christmas alone. Weather is already pretty vile and getting worse. School, sadly (teacher here, and parent) carries on until the bitter end on Friday afternoon. Fingers crossed for a brief power cut to send us home early, followed by full power and calm.

However, it really looks bad....

DD phoned from London to tell me that it was very cold and it had snowed when they were in Winter Wonderland.

She was most put out when I told her it would be from a snow machine.

Hello again! We had a couple of inches of snow yesterday and it's warmed up to a balmy -6 (-12 with the windchill). Heading into the Rockies tomorrow for Christmas!

My phone forecast says 14 degrees for Christmas Day in SE England, disappointingly mild. Same as Los Angeles is forecast!

Weather changing in the Highlands. Brisk and breezy today and feeling chilly. Wondering what the contingency plan could be if we lose power for eating. We have had cases where half the village loses power and half doesn't if that happens we can decamp to friends or them to us.

Contingency plan:
sitting round the wood burner playing cards.