BadKittens Just For Fun Christmas forecast thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: This is for fun, any accuracy, especially this far out is entirely coincidental! I'm an amateur forecaster. Things will change between now and Christmas day

Christmas Eve just squeezes into GFS model range so here we go :) as other models come into range, I'll be using those too.

23rd December High pressure looks to dominate. Cold - temps close to freezing. A little potential for snow, even in the south. Ensembles almost all show cold, so confidence is more reasonable than usual at this time frame.

Christmas Eve Cold weather with a low potential for snow continues.

(Cottage is right on the edge of Cork harbor - there's a faint chance near our home, but even that is only faint - next year, I either want full on snow and skiing etc, or sunshine on the far side of the world!)

As with netweather, the metoffice have a bit of confuzzlement as well when it comes to Christmas!

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Dec 2016 to Sunday 25 Dec 2016:

Towards the end of next week frontal systems are likely to move into the west, bringing outbreaks of rain that'll be heavy at times with strong winds. The wind and rain will ease as they move slowly eastwards though and it'll be mild. Pressure then looks likely to build over the UK during next weekend, bringing drier and, at times, brighter weather for southern parts, although the north may hold onto cloud and outbreaks of rain. Temperatures are likely to be near normal, with overnight frost patches forming where the cloud breaks. There is a large degree of uncertainty as we head towards the Christmas period, however, high pressure currently looks more likely to dominate leading to drier weather, but it will still be rather cloudy with some fog patches.

(Think you've got a lovely spot in which to spend Christmas, BiddyPop.)

Really hope the cold weather wins through, although the Weather Forecast on the radio this morning stated that in some areas of the UK, it could be the mildest Christmas Day on record (they were projecting a possibility of 15 or 16°C.). Fingers crossed something will change before then!

Morning!

23rd

cold, dull, boring

christmasy eve
cold and dull - snow for parts of Scotland?

Christmas day

wet and milder as weather pushes in from the west.

boxing day

mild and wet

27th

cooler air starts to push back.

I don't think I've ever had to work so hard each morning to produce the latest guess. There is no model consistency! Once again, in the ensembles the operational run takes a wild swing upwards away from the other members in terms of temperature in central England.

15 or 16°c?! Noooooo!!
It was grey, mild and damp in the NW yesterday. I would swap it in a blink for the cold and frosty days of a couple of weeks ago.

Meandthemajor. I can't find any evidence whatsoever ever to support those temps. I have no idea where they got their forecast from. Certainly not the met office.

Oh my goodness say it isn't so! I'm finding it hard enough to find my Christmas spirit as it is. Mild and wet just isn't going to do it! But thank you OYBNK.

It'll probably be different tomorrow Flatcoat

Really miss the cold down here, hoping for some more frosty mornings at least (Devon). Thanks for the thread OYBBK.

Wet and chilly,but not cold enough to snow for us for the 25th. I want the frost and blue sky back. It's so drab at the moment.

I suppose if Christmas is soggy and mild, snow-lovers will just have to hope for an Arctic blast in January. I do like a proper winter that feels like winter.

Urgh. Thick fog here now, has barely got light all day. If it's like this over Christmas I'm hibernating.

another day, another cycle of model runs!

23rd

gfs shows blizzards in the north of scotland and stormy. Cool/cold everywhere, snow over northern hills. ECMWF shows stormy too but not as cold.

christmas eve
milder and showery, with snow confined to high parts of northern Scotland. ECMWF goes for colder than gfs!

Christmas day

cool/cold in the northern half, cool in the southern half. Showers possible.

boxing day

mild everywhere.

27th

very wet and mild.

28th

stormy!!! wet, mild, cooler in the north.

Looking further on, it looks like cold air wants to push back down. Once again no model consistency! We are right on the battle ground of cold/mild but unfortunately Europe doesn't look that cold, so no proper deep cold on the cards at the moment. Ensembles reflect this.

Thanks for this thread. I've been a lurker on TWO and Net-weather for over 10 years and it never ceases to amaze me, at how everyone turns into prozac popping crazies when the models change from run to run.
The weather will do what it wants and always has done.
But it is annoying when 'mild' is always a certainty.

lol!! yes, the forums are very funny. And you get those who state with absolute certainty that x scenario will happen when it's very unlikely. But there are some very knowledgeable people there too.

Wish I knew what 'Fergie' was saying half the time. Glad that other members translate

:D

For south east U.K.

another day, another cycle of model runs!

23rd

gfs shows a cold day with some snow showers in the north of Scotland. ECMWF also shows cold.

Christmas eve*
Both models agree with some very strong winds traversing northern UK. Some blizzards perhaps over high scottish ground. Elsewhere not cold enough for snow.

Christmas day

cool/cold in the northern half, cool in the southern half. Showers possible.

boxing day

Temps in low single figures on this run away from the SW. But I think quite dank and gloomy.

27th

see boxing day.

28th

see boxing day. Ranging from mild in SW to cold and probably gloomy the further north and east you go.

Looking ahead, Europe starts to look colder, high pressure seems firmly fixed over scandinavia.

Well, that's a bit more promising I suppose!

Thanks for doing this every day OYBBK. I know it'll probably change a lot in the next week, but do I detect a tiny shift in the right direction for cold lovers? I'm not asking for a white Christmas, but cold would be so much nicer than mild

you are welcome fatsatsuma :) yes, I think it does seem to be erring on the side of high pressure winning. It's in the wrong position to bring proper cold, but hopefully enough to hold the atlantic at bay.

The metoffice are going for high pressure winning as well.

UK Outlook for Monday 19 Dec 2016 to Wednesday 28 Dec 2016:

Most places will stay dry on Monday and Tuesday. It will be rather cloudy, but some sunshine is possible, particularly across central parts. Temperatures will be around normal, with overnight frosts where the cloud breaks. Rain will develop in western Northern Ireland and Scotland, perhaps persistent over hills. This is likely to spread further south in the second half of next week, accompanied by some stronger winds. There is a large degree of uncertainty as we head towards Christmas itself, however, high pressure looks more likely to persist in the south-east leading to drier, but sometimes cloudy weather. Unsettled conditions are most probable in the north-west, where it'll be windy at times. Temperatures will be around normal, with some frosts possible, but perhaps mild at times in the north-west.

And the thoughts from Netweather and theweatheroutlook.

thanks Gloria :)

Would really really like some snow....not bothered about Christmas, too much travelling to be done, but Hogmanay and the start of January would be amazing. Especially as I've only just realised that the schools don't go back till the 10th