BadKittens Just For Fun Christmas forecast thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: This is for fun, any accuracy, especially this far out is entirely coincidental! I'm an amateur forecaster. Things will change between now and Christmas day

Christmas Eve just squeezes into GFS model range so here we go :) as other models come into range, I'll be using those too.

23rd December High pressure looks to dominate. Cold - temps close to freezing. A little potential for snow, even in the south. Ensembles almost all show cold, so confidence is more reasonable than usual at this time frame.

Christmas Eve Cold weather with a low potential for snow continues.

MooseBeTimeForSnow in Canada might be interested.

morning, slightly more challenging at weekends as I'm forecasting from bed on my ipad, so flipping between pages and typing lots bit trickier. Especially with cat helping.

23rd December
Stormy showing again, but this time with temps quite cold

Christmas Eve
Mild, damp windy

Christmas Day
High pressure starting to build - cold over much of Europe.

Boxing day

Mild, but cooler.

Ensembles show that the operational was once again on the warmer side of the model runs, but not such an outlier this time.

On the plus side, next weekend looks very cold at the moment, with temps close to freezing across the country by day.

Thanks for that Kitten. My guess is that it will be damp & mild like it so often is. But I would much rather it were ccccold, clear & frosty at least, if we aren't going to get snow.

I suspect it'll cost more than 99p to ship. And, knowing Royal Mail AND Canada Post, it might just make it here in time for next Christmas

Ooh! Look! Nice and warm at Christmas!!

To my extremely amateur eye, I think the latest GFS run is rather good for cold/frost the week after next (Christmas week)

Ah, the rollercoaster of weather watching! I'm desperately hoping for cold and crisp at Christmas - with walks in the woods crunching icy puddles. Last year it was horrendously mild and that just doesn't feel Christmassy. I'd love some snow but then again people get worried about travelling if it is very snowy.

Looks that way to me too Gloria

23rd December

lol!!! Cold, temps just above freezing for many but the west perhaps on the mild side as we are on the edge of a cold/warm battleground gfs shows potential for a lot of snow in Scotland.

christmas eve

cold away from the west, with some snow potential for the north perhaps.

christmas day

The split between cold and mild still remains over the UK with snow potential perhaps.

boxing day

cold away from the west.

The gfs charts in the run up to Christmas look rather odd to me (not in any sort of scientific way) possibly with a spell of snow. ecmwf looks reasonably different, so I'm looking forward to when they come into range because at the moment we aren't qetting a whole load of consensus between model runs.

I love your forecasting threads OYBBK. Cold is good. Warm Christmases just don't feel right (am in S London), but wet ones are the worst!

thanks Zen :) if only I could actually give accurate forecasts this far out. It would be great! But it is fun watching the models.

Snow potential on Christmas day? That would be amazing.

We are in the west so probably not for us.

Well, I shall be watching with interest as we get nearer the 25th! Mind you, I find even forecasts issued by the Met Office with all their high tech equipment are not that accurate more than two or three days from the day they are forecasting.

Oo yay, one of my favourite threads of the year!

I'll be watching. I'd love to have snow for Christmas.

Snow potential for the north sounds good, but is it cancelled out by us being West as well? Maybe we should be visiting my parents who are north east, or mil who is in Scotland? Or maybe I shouldn't care because we don't plan to leave the house on Christmas day anyway.

well quite Zen! They are much more accurate than they used to be, but under some set ups weather models still struggle and so do the professional meteorologists with all their training, so for us amateurs interpreting them, its definitely more for fun!

Mrs AD how confusing! Close the curtains and then you can just pretend where every you are!

I'd advise not looking at this afternoons output.

I did (look at it)
(If I've read it right) It still looks cold all through that week and then warms up on Christmas Eve. I'm hoping it's an end-of-run blip ~ like the computer/s had enough of doing boring weather calculations and just goes for any weather at the end!

that's a good way to look at it. Must be very tiring for them day in day out

Now Christmas is truly here! ThanksBadKitten

it's a pleasure

Morning all.

23rd

Milder and wetter in the west, cooler in the east, but not especially cold.

christmas eve

still in the middle of the battle ground between cold and mild, with resulting weather fronts and wet possible.

Christmas day

same as above, but cooling down significantly in Scotland.

boxing day

cooler away from the sw, feeling pretty cold across much of the u.k.

27th

continuing the colder theme.

In this latest model run the snow risk has pretty much vanished. It does seem a little mean given the cold weather forecast for next week in the run up to Christmas.

I'm in the north of scotland just some cold and frost would feel a bit more festive. It's actually warm feeling just now. Was at a Carol service yesterday and it's usually snowing by now where the church is but for the first time ever in this church I was actually feeling a touch on the warm side.

Latest GFS run is pretty good and keeps the cold that starts from the beginning of next week, going right through 'til Wednesday, 28th. Will need (

Latest Christmas weather forecast from Netweather.

Cold from Europe doesn't look like it's going to cross the Irish sea though - I think I will bring my waterproofs and not worry so much about having firewood for the cottage!

GFS certainly looks better away from the west. Problem is, I do my forecast so early I end up using the 00Z model.

a relief that Netweather are scratching their heads as much as us