BadKittens Just For Fun Christmas forecast thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: This is for fun, any accuracy, especially this far out is entirely coincidental! I'm an amateur forecaster. Things will change between now and Christmas day

Christmas Eve just squeezes into GFS model range so here we go :) as other models come into range, I'll be using those too.

23rd December High pressure looks to dominate. Cold - temps close to freezing. A little potential for snow, even in the south. Ensembles almost all show cold, so confidence is more reasonable than usual at this time frame.

Christmas Eve Cold weather with a low potential for snow continues.

Frost warning for some areas overnight.

Long term met office think slight chance of wind from the east at the end of the month?

So nothing interesting or white until at least then I guess.

'Wind from the east' not their technical term obviously. I make it sound like Mary poppins .

no, generally a mix of cold with not so cold. Perhaps some gales at times next week for 'up north' but nothing significant.

Some people on TWO are getting a bit more optimistic about a cold spell now OYBBK - are you not convinced?

cold on and off, yes, but snow, not so sure at the moment.

the problem is that it keeps moving it to 10 days out always. So snow keeps being in the models, but at 240hours or thereabouts

If you want to see look here
looking at 186 hours, you can see on the 500hpa chart how high pressure lies to our west, drawing in a cold north westerly. Then look at the 850hpa charts. The -5c line is in the right place (that's the temp at where the pressure is 850hpa) so that's good too. .But every time I look that scenario gets shunted into the future. It was supposed to be like that this weekend over Christmas.

So the possibility certainly is there, it just needs to actually stay on the same day for a few days before I'm convinced.

snow watch thread