stormy weather forecast for Weds 14th/thurs 15th

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I think that this weeks weather now needs its own thread. Can I first apologise for not creating a separate thread for the Scottish twin storms. Although I was posting forecasts on a general weather thread, real life has conspired to give me less weather watching time than usual.

So anyway, as ever with these systems the details are not yet tied down. Models are coming up with a range of depths of the low pressure of between 945hpa (and filling as it comes on shore) - 968hpa. It looks certain that a deep low pressure will cross the UK weds/thurs and that at the very least some areas will see gales. Worst case scenario is storm force winds.

At the moment the areas I personally think most at risk is Wales, the Midlands and perhaps southern England too.

I'll do my best to update when I can.

met office warnings

Wind is tonight not overnight last night.

It looks like some of you were thinking snow was certain in the south. Can I refer you back to this paragraph yesterday morning

"So, plenty of snow for many in Scotland moving south through the day in to northern Ireland and then a wintry mix for northern England and Wales. By tonight snow in many parts of the West Midlands, moving across the Midlands (with perhaps a little escaping further east). It won't be snow everywhere though and some will see rain instead. Later on in the night even parts of the SE may see some snow, or at least a wintry mix of weather, more likely to be snow over hills including the Downs and Chilterns."

We had some sleet and hail around 5:30am. Clear skies now.

youare I'm most put out about the grey-ness outside. Although Sunday looks promising.

Snow here in North Wiltshire!! Dogs and child excited (me too)!! It's settled on the log store etc, but not on the ground, unfortunately!

Dh has driven up to Leeds this morning and driving back tomorrow evening. Will he have problems re winds? We're in Warwickshire so its a good drive. BTW no snow here, not one single snowflake

micku, you may get caught by the odd shower but I dont know if it will be rain or snow. Certainly over the west there are lots of showers - the main band of precipitation is going through the channel with lots of showers to the north of it. Sunday is still looking like there may be a good chance for some snow.

Lots of rain overnight tonight - may lead to some localised flooding. The winds look a little less strong tonight than they did this time yesterday and some central areas may see no more than 50mph In the south gusting to 60mph, 70mph along the coast. 70mph also on western coasts.

Tomorrow there looks still to be a squeeze over northern Ireland and here too could see 70mph. Ditto the Western Isles.

50shades - no you should be fine, winds will be died down by tomorrow evening.

severe weather damage in Wales. Unless there were witnesses to say they saw a funnel or investigators have been down to analyse the damage it can't be said for certain that it was a tornado (straight line winds on gust fronts can produce similar damage) but whatever the cause - unpleasant for those affected.

we had snow. not the up to 6 cm , not even 6 mm, more like .6mm

Thanks for info. Btw thanks for doing these threads, I always check to see what you say about the weather and you are always really accurate.

technically blackeyed that is still up to 0.6mm

You are welcome 50shades.

OYBBK, thanks so much for doing these threads. I always look for one when there's a weatherweath warning out.
Can I please ask about Durham tomorrow? Met office says the winds could gust over 60mph. Sounds really silly but I am petrified of the wind and am hoping they won't be that bad.
I know that Scotland has had it far worse and that I'm a wimp

Walking to work in graupel! No snow or rain overnight. Very frosty this morning. Dh had to scrape the car.

Well Done OYBBK. My local govt 5 day forecast is normally pretty accurate, but not this time.

The very strong winds you warned me about 36 HOURS ago appeared on our local forecast this morning. We are now up to F10 for this afternoon through to tomorrow at some point.

You have a new admirer, my DH is extremely impressed with your weather forecasting skills :)

Thanks OYBBK, I will let DD2 know. DD1 has a football match in Herne Bay on Sunday so I'll get the thermals out.

Light frosting of snow here in Leeds. I'd have liked more though !

Ice and much scraping of cars here (Leicester) as well this morning. BBC report here on the snow disruption ~ looks like there was an impressive amount in Aviemore!

Today/tonight's storm can be seen here
There's going to be some disruption to Scotrail train services later and TrafficEngland is here for road information.

Thanks Gloria that animation is so beautiful, but you can see how Scotland is getting it bad.

Light snow and cold wind in Derbyshire but my washing is on the line as it's sunny clamped down with many, many pegs

I'm intrigued that the met office have shifted the wind warnings mostly away from NI when I still feel that they could be seeing gusts to around 70mph. I'm not quite sure what I'm missing.

It looks like around NI, southern Scotland the gales will be prolonged through tonight and much of tomorrow, for those further south its going to be a much briefer affair and the worst of the wind should be over by around 9am. (much earlier away from the SE)
A lot of heavy rain overnight and then some heavy showers (perhaps some wintry for a brief time) and more persistent rain for those in the north and also Wales and west Midlands.

Sunday morning still looks quite snowy for many in the south, but perhaps in the west Midlands too. Tuesday also shows some potential.

Proper snow day here - good fluffy covering, no wind, quite warm and school had the good grace to close so the kids can enjoy some fun before the rain and wind start up again (although just spotted that the warnings have shifted west & south. Really annoying though that there always seems to be a warm day mixed in to get rid of the snow...

Sorry to bang on about it, but do you think it's worth the hassle & expense of getting the winter tyres put on in the Central South East. I tried to get it done a few weeks ago, but they said it wasn't cold enough to bother (I think they were inundated with pre Christmas servicing etc).

Oh and I seriously doubt that it's YOU missing anything.

lucky Oricella!

Chipping, if it helps at the moment GFS shows cold and at times wintry weather now continuing til the end of the month (though there were some hints of a break down at around the 22nd, I can't see those now)

This was the weather that causes all the damage coming in from left to right. It was an amazing sight but hard to picture with a phone! We were having a lovely time in the snow but I shoved the boys back in the car and beat a retreat for home, didn't quite make it though but the hail and lightening were very spectacular! Looking forward to being in one of the strong wind sections shortly, why are we segregated?

Caused! I really need to check my words are right instead of obsessing over the picture.

We had a gigantic thunderstorm in Cornwall too last night which caused some damage and a tornado!