stormy weather forecast for Weds 14th/thurs 15th

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I think that this weeks weather now needs its own thread. Can I first apologise for not creating a separate thread for the Scottish twin storms. Although I was posting forecasts on a general weather thread, real life has conspired to give me less weather watching time than usual.

So anyway, as ever with these systems the details are not yet tied down. Models are coming up with a range of depths of the low pressure of between 945hpa (and filling as it comes on shore) - 968hpa. It looks certain that a deep low pressure will cross the UK weds/thurs and that at the very least some areas will see gales. Worst case scenario is storm force winds.

At the moment the areas I personally think most at risk is Wales, the Midlands and perhaps southern England too.

I'll do my best to update when I can.

met office warnings

OYBBK you might be interested to note my area is now under a Red Weather Warning. I'm also confused as to why the wind warning for NI & SW scotland has been downgraded:

"RED WEATHER WARNING:

A period of severe weather is expected to have an impact on the Island later today and for much of tomorrow, with a high risk of travel disruption and some damage in places due to severe gale to storm force winds.

This is in effect from 5pm today, Wednesday 14th January 2015 until 5pm on Thursday 15th January 2015.

A southerly gale will develop with rain mid to late afternoon, then severe gale to storm force winds & heavy rain this evening leading to minor localised flooding, with gusts 65 to 75mph, causing travel difficulties and some damage.

Rough seas will splash-over onto exposed coastal roads and Promenades near High Water (5.35pm today and 6.25am on the 15th). The rain will clear towards midnight.

The wind will increase to severe gale again by tomorrow morning, then reaching storm force at times between about late morning and mid-afternoon; widespread gusts again 65-75mph, but possibly 80mph in exposed areas, causing structural damage in places and more travel disruption.

The severe gales abate, gradually, from late afternoon onwards."

I just saw that Kipper, sounds very nasty for you. We keep trying to pick a weekend to come home to see my DM, but it just isn't happening at the moment with this weather!

Aren't there supposed to be really high tides this weekend too, I seem to remember something being posted on one of the local gov sites a few weeks ago with this weekend & a couple of February that might be very high like last year.

Hi Fishy, yep high tides too. Gansey, PSM & C'town will be most affected. I live in PE so tides not an issue for me, despite being coastal, however we will catch the worst of the southwest winds.

wind is really picking up here! Our local forecast is showing snow on and off for the next 10 days

Kippers - that ties in much more with what I'm thinking. (apart from the splashing bit!)

This "BBC weatherman Kevin Thomas said: "It sounds like a tornado; the clues are the roaring sound and the localisation of the damage and the fact that weighty objects have been picked up." is bollocks from the bbc weatherman, straight line winds can do the same. However, given the synoptics look right for the potential tornado in Wales, this could be one too. TORRO will be investigating to confirm whether they both were tornadoes or not. They will be looking at the radar and pattern of damage as well as eye witness reports and any track that may be apparent.

Great picture Lost!

Look - thundersnow. DM was asking me about this after they had it in S Wales last night.

An experienced forecaster whose opinion I really respect feels that there is a slight risk of some tornadic activity tomorrow morning in the south. He also feels that there could be some damaging winds for northern Ireland and parts of Scotland.

Wind definitely getting up here - howling around outside the house - south Cheshire.
Forecast to be strong winds tonight until tomorrow morning, then a lull, then stronger winds again for the rush hour tomorrow evening.

I agree meglet it's looked snowy all day - then nothing. Just a whole load of freezing cold rain and wind. The most exciting thing to happen was the police helicopter overhead for over an hour tonight.
Although I thought I saw a flash of lightning last night I heard no thunder and apparently spinnaker tower got hit? (I'll google and double check!)

www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/video-lightning-hits-spinnaker-tower-1-6520449

Just getting a little windy here down in the south. Enough to flap my letterbox and whistle across the chimney.

We've already taped our letterbox down wouldn't be surprised if we lose power tonight. Oybbk do you know just how much rain we're expecting tonight?

Noticeable wind blowing down chimneys now. The weather station is flashing rain which means it's going to rain a lot!

Quite windy here in the Midlands, loudest wind I've heard in the 7 months I've lived in this flat, in fact

it's too windy here (north hants)

I much prefer a dumping of snow than the roof tile and fence terror I get with gales.

Just had a huge whoooosh of wind down the chimney, which would be fine except I have had it blocked up with a large towel for several years (to stop stray birds and old soot coming down and the cat going up).
There's no way my already slightly wonky fence will still be up come morning

Greetings from the north of Northern Ireland! We had loads of snow yesterday (my nephews' school was closed today) and more today but it has turned wet and windy from teatime onwards. The winds are gusty but not the worst we've had recently - we had some amazingly high tides over the last few weeks and really noisy nights. Pressure on the weather station is 960 which is the lowest I've seen. Very much hoping we're going to miss the worst of the winds as our house is coastal and very exposed.

Very windy in west Cornwall and the tides are very high. The swell will be mahoosive tomorrow. Must get out and about with my camera.

chimneys howling here.
and neighbours trees sway dangerously.
hope everyones roof stays on.

stay safe

OYBBK how much do I trust the barometric pressure chart on the earth animated wind page? Only it's dropping quite fast, gulp.

Sorry, for anyone everyone who doesn't know what I'm talking about, I think I got this link from GloriaSmud a while ago, animated beautiful pictures of the weather as it happens.

Lost, how do you see the pressure on that?

Thanks

Oops sorry. Cross post with your last one.

Can you tell the pressure is dropping because the colour changes? Sorry if I'm being a tad dim.

If you click on the map it shows the pressure. It's fascinating!!!