stormy weather forecast for Weds 14th/thurs 15th

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I think that this weeks weather now needs its own thread. Can I first apologise for not creating a separate thread for the Scottish twin storms. Although I was posting forecasts on a general weather thread, real life has conspired to give me less weather watching time than usual.

So anyway, as ever with these systems the details are not yet tied down. Models are coming up with a range of depths of the low pressure of between 945hpa (and filling as it comes on shore) - 968hpa. It looks certain that a deep low pressure will cross the UK weds/thurs and that at the very least some areas will see gales. Worst case scenario is storm force winds.

At the moment the areas I personally think most at risk is Wales, the Midlands and perhaps southern England too.

I'll do my best to update when I can.

met office warnings

OYBBK Thankyou so much for this, meant to be having an exam early Thursday morning in Bristol, may need to form a plan B especially as last weeks journey was somewhat lively weather wise!

There's a few of us from Edinburgh and surrounding areas on this thread, I would like some snow, just for a day or 3 even if it was just in my street I would be happy.

Oh I just read back, heavy snow for tomorrow yay!! Just for tomorrow though.

I'm sw, forecasts seem to be a bit all over the place, I'm not going to get excited, some forecasts saying 3-6cm which isn't really much, I doubt it will settle taking into account that it's chucking it down with rain at the moment.

I'll rtft shortly but just wanted to say thank you OYBBK and good to see the Met Office has had an early warning out since yesterday, considering Friday/Saturday was under no warning whatsoever for England below a cut off line.

Our local rag is picking up on a BBC forecast of snow tomorrow overnight, although the forecast for Weds is for heavy rain to follow it - tied in with the storms you're mentioning / they're pre-warning about.

The chickens are now consigned to floor to ceiling plastic sheeting to protect from rain and wind, so their visibility may be somewhat streamlined but at least they'll get less of the wind up their tails!

I would like to request some snow in yorkshire please...

Pretty sure the snow will miss us (Salisbury) only 1 of the websites thought we would get some. Can't quite squish the hope though.

Met office is saying gusts of 44mph here tonight so nothing to get excited about. Up to 65mph Thursday morning though, hopefully that'll change...

okaydokey. I'm finally packing up work stuff for the day (mostly!)

So tonight we have heavy rain in the south, I expect to see some flooding coming out of this. Some strong winds along the south coast too. Still windy in the west of Scotland with snow for parts of the north of scotland.

Tomorrow temps look to drop sharply through the day from what will start of as very mild in the south. Tomorrow night is going to be really tricky to forecast in terms of snow. Some, especially on the eastern side will remain as heavy rain, but over Wales, parts of the west and perhaps elsewhere over higher ground will see snow. Impossible to say exactly where, but most people generally know whether they tend to be prone to snow or not in their area under marginal conditions. Where it does snow it could be disruptive and many areas will end up icy.

Good consensus now on where the low will track (centre up across Scotland heading NE). Looking at a depth of around 950hpa, so a decent system.
Gales look set to hit northern Ireland by around 6pm ish Wednesday with a really nasty gradient (severe gales developing). Later over night around midnight or so (but remember these timings may well shift still) gales across the south, severe round the south coast. We are looking at around 60mph generally, but perhaps higher for a time, especially in the SE, to 70mph. On the coast perhaps touching 80mph. Some heavy rain too.

At times northern Ireland and South west scotland could also see severe gales of around 80-90mph. and it is northern Ireland I'm most concerned about at present.

So to summarise a nasty couple of days coming up. disruption due to wind, flooding, snow and ice are all expected. Also don't be surprised to see some hail and lightning.

Well that seems to cover everything .

Well on the plus side, pollen counts are low.

Kitten - sorry if this is dumb but... The winds you mention for the south esp the coast.
Can I walk home from the train station in these?
Or would I get into trouble and be one of those people you roll your eyes at on the news?
Will the trains run? Our local train does tend to run in bad weather,snow, etc. but I wonder if we just take it for granted.

JKS unless you are planning a midnight saunter you should be fine. I can't vouch for the state of the railway on Thursday morning though.

Thank you OYBBK, you're the best

Thanks.

I may be back late from visiting dh in hosp in London. But not midnight kind of late.

Was hoping to go back in Thursday morning though. Hmm.

Don't leave it too late JKS, remember timings may change.

Thanks bObbles!

Thanks Kitten. Appreciate it.

You're welcome - you're the most comprehensive weather forecaster that I can find, by far.

Are we talking travel disrupting snow tomorrow, or just snow on high ground?

DH is travelling from N Wales to Birmingham tomorrow... should I be worried?

Not at all, I hope your dh is ok.

Does your concern for Northern Ireland cover the IOM as well out of interest?

Sorry above post for OYBBK

Is it supposed to be bad for Northern Ireland?

Hate storms

Is it supposed to be bad for Northern Ireland?

Hate storms

Oops didn't mean to post twice

Sorry