Keeping a small eye on Sunday/Mondays weather

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It probably won't come off but I'm keeping a bit of an eye on Sunday and Monday.

Models show remnants of hurricane Bertha coming close to our shores and develop them in different ways. It's hard (for me) to de tangle which bit are Bertha but the results are, either nothing to worry about at at all (most likely scenario) or some potentially wild and wooly weather as two of the models develop some pretty tight gradient lows for this time of year.

GFS takes it across northern Scotland bringing windy weather to the north, ECMWF brings it across southern and central England bringing windy weather to the south. UKMO just produces a slack low which could bring in plenty of rain.

Will update with developments.

Yay!

It's going to be scorching on Sunday - you can all thank me for it because I've had a clear out in preparation for 14 children being stuck indoors at the party

I'll accept wine as a thank you I'll need it by Sunday evening

Jolly good flip flop. I will do absolutely no prep for a sunny day to help things along.

In fact if I start a new weather thread saying we are all doomed to blow away that should keep the storm nicely at bay!

When will the models settle enough for a decent prediction to be made? Would you know for sure by Saturday morning? I'm just wondering because we have until 1pm on Saturday to cancel our hotel room if the weather is going to be too bad for the race on Sunday.

It's got to be crap weather this weekend, whatever the forecast - it's the Ballon Fiesta

But it's my holiday!

Dexter, I wouldn't know for sure (I never really do!) but I'd hope that there would be reasonable consensus by then. Unfortunately the met office don't tend to update their warnings until around 11:30am so I would do a final check with them. I will try my best to do an update Saturday morning but remember I'm an amateur.

Thanks!

Even today the models have a diversity of solutions with a corresponding diversity in forecasts. Aargh. GFS for instance shows very very heavy rain for northern Wales and into Scotland but very wet everywhere with the low zooming across the north midlands. The UKMO seems to want to take it through the channel. ECMWF follows broadly the GFS line.

So.... Who knows?

Has the weather been particularly unpredictable this summer?
The met office keep getting the forecast wrong for our area (town in North Essex). We're told there'll be rain, or weather will be cooler, and then it doesn't happen. Annoying because I've got loads of new plants that need watering and had time to do it yesterday but forecast was for 3 hours of heavy rain this morning so I left it.
Woke up to hot sunshine and no rain so far. I know forecasting isn't an exact science, but it was 90% certainty of rain which suggests that they're pretty confident.

I don't think the forecasters are using models at all for this. They're playing a 'pin the tail on the donkey' type game but with a map of the UK instead, and then drawing lines between the pins!

As for today, we're forecast for thundery showers so the usual 2 lightning sites ~ netweather and realtime lightning might come in useful.

Metoffice have updated their warnings.
My parents are going to a wedding on Sunday, travelling from Leicester to Essex ~ think I better warn them to keep an eye on the weather forecast.

Flash floods in east lincolnshire.

Mackerel sky (alto cumulus) does often indicate rain on the way. Nice pic!

Ender, they do seem to be struggling. I think it is harder without a nice dominant area of high pressure over us but I'm not sure why we seem to keep getting the 10% probability happening rather than the 90% probability. It would be interesting to keep a record to see if it is perception or actually happening.

At the moment galaxy? The showers/storms must be much more potent than they look on radar.

Yes, this morning. Its either quite localised rain or heading my way. I'm 30 miles away and the sky's dark black but no rain yet.

The warnings indicate they haven't a clue about the track yet. I do think rainfall could be a big issue.

There are warnings out today galaxy but it goes to show that you can't always tell what's really going on from a radar grab.

Galaxy I'm in Lincoln and its sunny!

The showers in that region look very small but sound intense.

You may be an amateur Kitten but I follow your forecasts usually rather than the BBC ( which - yesterday- forecast heavy rain for this area of Kent all morning so our work picnic was cancelled and not a drop of rain has fallen!) We're having a family BBQ on Sunday and I'm not cancelling it unless I get up Sunday morning and the weathers crap.

That's the way to go mysweetprince. If we cancelled every every time there was rain forecast we'd all be very pallid, bored creatures!

Louth

Galaxy wow that looks wet! My garden is dried to a crisp, would love some of that. Hope its heading Essex way.