Keeping a small eye on Sunday/Mondays weather

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It probably won't come off but I'm keeping a bit of an eye on Sunday and Monday.

Models show remnants of hurricane Bertha coming close to our shores and develop them in different ways. It's hard (for me) to de tangle which bit are Bertha but the results are, either nothing to worry about at at all (most likely scenario) or some potentially wild and wooly weather as two of the models develop some pretty tight gradient lows for this time of year.

GFS takes it across northern Scotland bringing windy weather to the north, ECMWF brings it across southern and central England bringing windy weather to the south. UKMO just produces a slack low which could bring in plenty of rain.

Will update with developments.

I'm quietly getting my hopes up that our ds's rugby training on Sunday morning might be cancelled (SE Wales)!

There I was thinking I was the only one watching the weather! Down in the southeast and we have two outdoor events on Sunday and on Tuesday. Since it's been scorching hot and sunny for the last 3 weeks (when nothing has been scheduled), really hoping we don't get rained off, or there'll be some very disappointed kids!

I must say I am impressed with OYBBK's weather analysis though.

We are in East Anglia.i was expecting horrible weather today and cancelled outdoorsy plans today ....but it was fine flipping typical. Hope to reschedule for Monday, bad kitten what do you reckon the likelihood it will be ok on Monday ?

What about Bristol? Looks ok on the Met Office site so far. Hoping to travel down to catch the mass balloon ascent and night glow/fireworks tomorrow evening. Will be gutted if it's rained off or cancelled due to winds.

Nobusiness, I'd carry on out there...DD in Marseilles and looks lovely. Oh to Interrail again . Did France by Triumph Bonnie, caff raced at 19. Now I know why my parents were.... bricks.

Thanks. I can probably cope with a bumpy start, and we're not going too far

OYBBK your forecasts ARE better than very many others. Thank you.

Bristol might be quite damp early evening but wind will be fine. Will catch you all tomorrow, time for bed (said zebedee)

We are doing a mini tour of Wales. Going up north on Monday. Please tell me it won't be non stop rain

I finished work today for a few weeks, so unfortunately I can almost guarantee the weather will be bad. There was a brief period when I thought I'd left my sunglasses on my desk, which would have increased the probability of good weather over the next few weeks, then I realised they were in a different pocket of my bag and did make it home, which decreases any probability of good weather! In reality I am aware that my leave plans and the location of my sunglasses can't effect weather systems, just sometimes feels that way.

Interesting discussion on the radio earlier, despite many weather warnings, it was (don't know if this is still case) only 60% likely we'd get the tail end of Bertha, there was still a 40% chance she'd head off out to sea. I see that as it's still approximately 50/50, particularly considering I was sunning myself on the beach last time there was a heavy rain weather forecast.

I'm literally a few doors down from businesses that have been flooded in Cambridgeshire. A lot of my town is underwater and more is expected tomorrow. My internet's only just been reconnected and seeing the pictures is shocking tbh. Never thought it'd happen here. There's a lot of uproar that the council aren't helping, it seems it's every man for himself down here, no sandbags are available apparently. I'm so worried about tomorrow. From what I've read sandbags won't help much anyway, I have some very strong plastic tape I bought months ago intending to reinforce the shed roof but I'm going to cover our airbricks with it and fill some bags with soil and hope that's enough. It was biblical yesterday, never seen anything like it. To make it worse, dp thinks I'm massively over reacting. I emptied our conservatory yesterday and I'm going to actually move things upstairs today, I saw for myself that things can go from bad to 'oh fuck' in minutes.

We're in deepest, darkest SW Cornwall on hols this week, in a house though so at least we'll be snug. I'll let you know what the weather does.

Obviously I'm still optimistic and in my "oh, the breeze always blows the clouds away from the beach!" mode .

At 6am this morning I was reminded of the scene in Independance Day when the Alien Mothership first comes out of the clouds. I've never seen clouds this imposing looking and it gave me a bit of a start. We are currently SW near Weston (but going home today, thankfully)

We arrived in North Norfolk yesterday for a weeks holiday. Have just checked the weather and feel like crying - fine today but then rain rain rain for as far as the forecast goes. And we've come from London which is showing sunshine every day!

Sloane that sounds very dramatic. It really has been a very active year for downpours.

So tomorrow.

My best guess at the moment is that heavy rain will reach the SW in the early hours. By the time people wake up most of southern England through to the midlands should be seeing rain, heavy to very heavy in places. Gales will start in the SW again in the early hours, rapidly spreading across the south coast.
As the low moves north and east it should start to clear behind it in the afternoon. But as it does so widespread gales come across the south, especially the SE and perhaps very very heavy rain will move through Wales, and across into the NE.

Timings and locations are incredibly approximate, not to be relied on at all. It depends on the low behaving as current forecast (and my interpretation of it)

Will try to update around lunchtime when the next model runs update.

Sloane, hope everything's okay there, are you in March? We lived there for seven years, and fwiw you sound very sensible moving stuff upstairs. The ground saturates very quickly, with little place for the water to go. I hope there aren't further downpours this weekend for you.

SE Wales.

Bright sunshine first thing, one heavy downpour lasting about 10 minutes, and now bright sunshine again. Very light winds.

Wait til tomorrow IWish.

Thankfully I don't have to drive anywhere tomorrow. Yesterday I had to go from York to Notts to pick up dd1. Thunderstorm and rain all the way down and the A1 was very busy coming north so we came back by lesser roads. When we got to Selby it started hurling down with rain and carried on for the next couple of hours with more very dramatic sheet lightening. When I went out for chips (grin) lots of roads were flooded.

OYBBK - dd will now be volunteering on a boat off the West Coast of Scotland (home in B&B at night) for a week - tell me Bertha is keeping well away from there!

Ex-Bertha will be off the eastern side of Britain by the end of tomorrow. It could be quite wet and choppy for her though with the influence of other low pressures. She will be safe I'm sure, but it might be a little character forming for her!

We've holidayed in this place for over a decade. She can cope with wet, choppy and character forming

Would it be a bad idea to drive from the midlands to Essex tomorrow morning? I can't decide whether to risk it or not. I'm a confident driver, rack up thousands of motorway miles every year for work, but for some reason feel a bit more wary of doing it with my twins in the car.

OhYouBadKitten if you are still around - we are due to make a ferry crossing from Portsmouth to Caen overnight (this Saturday night). At the moment, the ferry company website shows the ferries running as normal, but I am worried. Will the bad weather reach the English channel? In which case, about what time do you think it will arrive?