2013/2014 Winter - Should we be getting ready for 'snowmageddon'?

[johnworf]

According to this article, based on past winters and other factors, this winter could be a very chilly one.

I don't understand half of the things used to predict why this may be but I'm wondering if I should start making sure we're ready for it, should it come?

down to 4 degrees.

strangely

I've also seen a prediction for a bad winter. If you follow old wives tells, there were a lot of berries on the trees/hedges last winter and it was colder. We have a massive amount on the hedge outside (never noticed so many), so if this is anything to go by a cold winter could be on it's way.

Had a much colder and refreshing wind this morning making the same temperature feel much cooler. Think it was a northerly wind? SE

Just back from dog walk and the cool wind has gone, so back to being close and muggy

I think the amount of berries has more to do with the conditions of the previous spring.

So as its the 1st of October......when will we be on Snow Watch?

lol - highest points of Scottish hills have already had a bit!

Well Jell

Ha Ha seriously though should I be getting a bag of grit in....just in case?

I would.

Ok, so its October which means its supposed to be getting colder! What has happened to our four seasons?? I for one am a fan of all seasons, although I do prefer the winter, so I'm hoping we have lots of snow this winter! But seriously, we should be thankful that we actually got a decent summer this year and look forward to the change in seasons. Summer is brilliant for barbecues, water fights, days out with family and friends, autumn is lovely with all the beautiful colours, the fresh smells, the bonfires etc. winter is so beautiful with the snow, the lovely crisp mornings with the frost but the sun beaming down, and spring brings the new babies, the beautiful flowers and pleasant days. Just wish our seasons were still like that! Lol.

YY mummy love proper seasons, but there is no rush for it to get cold until November IMO

October is a funny old in betweeny month but you are right our seasons do seem all muddled up.

Have a look at Exacta Weather. They are forecasting a very cold winter

Hmmm. I'm not one for putting much stock in long term forecasts.

Not just Exacta, many others too

They tend to use similar sources of information, so I'm not surprised they are saying similar things.
Not saying it won't be a cold winter, just saying that long term forecasts are notoriously unreliable and often seem to get it right by coincidence as there are only a few scenarios to forecast: cold and dry, cold and wet, warm and dry, warm and wet or average.

What's the jet stream up to this year, is it still out of kilter? I'm in the south east and we had years of mild non snowy winters but since the jet stream went a bit wobble we have had a few snowy winters. At least one snow day for the last 3 years.

The jet stream has been really bonkers this year - swapping between being very southerly to northerly. It has on occasion split into two jet streams which is pretty unusual. Whilst we've benefited this summer, there have once again been extreme weather conditions in other areas attributed to the position and behaviour of the jet stream.

I'll have a look at the jet stream forecast for the next few weeks and into winter just for fun, knowing that its going to be as accurate as a totally inaccurate thing. Back in a bit :)

Lovely morning so far in S.Herts. Brilliant blue sky and clean, clear air at last. Went down to 6.8 last night due to the clear sky, and despite not being really cold at 8.30am, on dog walk I saw my breath vapour

just marking place as curious about how the winter is looking weatherwise.

Ok, I've looked at a few sources:

Jet stream: for the next couple of weeks still looking unsettled and split at times and I can't see anything that will change that at all. Looks similar to last winter.

North Atlantic Oscillation: There arent any indications as to which way the North atlantic oscillation is going at present, with ensemble members split pretty evenly between positive and negative.

El Nino/la Nina: looks remaining pretty neutral. Perhaps managing to dip into a very weak La Nina (but just a few model runs are showing a weak El Nino) Its not really understood how and if La Nina really affects the UK, but it does seem to be associated with snowless winters.

CFS model: This is a long term forecast model that is to be taken with truck loads of salt. Anyway you can look at the out put results yourself: weatherweb tv cfs It doesnt show anything remarkable at all. No prolonged cold or warmth, just average temps an fairly average precip.

Solar cycle: This cycle is looking very weak (looks to be the weakest since 1906) and weak solar cycles do tend to be associated with runs of cold winters. If you are interested in this google 'Dalton solar minimum'. It's a controversial area of meteorology!

Met office global long range forecast: Can be found here. It is a raw output only and hence not actually an official met office forecast. You might want to peer at the maps yourselves to check I've looked at them accurately as I find the UK a bit little on the map to see clearly. As far as I can see it for Nov/Dec/Jan it says...

Temperature 40-60% chance above normal, 40-60% chance near normal, 20-40% below normal.

Precip 20-40% above normal, 20-40% near normal, 20-40% below normal.

Which effectively says they havent got a scooby but the most likely outcome is a very average winter from that raw model data.

So to summarise all of that, there are no clear signals from any of the above that it is going to be a colder than average winter or indeed a warmer than average winter. the only colder than average indicator is the solar cycle, which is a distinctly dodgy way of forecasting as there are so many other weather influences that can override any effect if it truely exists.

And now I'm going into the garden to enjoy the sunshine while it's here :)

Thanks for that Kitten.

You are welcome :)