Snow watch!!!!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

well, it looks like winter finally might be arriving!

First indications for snow are for this coming saturday as a low pressure draws in cold air . The met office arent really going for it at the moment, but the potential is certainly there. At the moment I'd say the biggest risk is for the midlands and central England.

After that there seems to be a cold few days but then the models start to disagree. GFS shows a positive snow fest for the 24th! masses of snow, but its a long way off and until we get much closer who knows what really will happen.

We have snow (co durham) from sat pm until mon on meet office and sun until tues on netweather so I'm expecting something at least!

It's certainly colder. Really very much colder. Brrrrrrrr.

It is bloody freezing out. Think of me tomorrow, freezing my tits off :(

The snow in Hampshire has shifted from the weekend to Mon / Tuesday. Hope we get something this year.

How accurate is this prediction for Reading, it is from a blog and the person writing it is an armchair weatherman...

^Then there is a lot of uncertainty for Thursday onwards, but there are realistic chances of possibly the most memorable winter event of my lifetime. Some of the model projections are showing huge amounts of snow for the south.

If what is currently projected comes off in its entirety there would be a huge amount of chaos for several days.^

Italics fail

Squuuuuueeeeeeeeee! I just had to run upstairs with my laptop & read that to my family

Notso, I've seen nothing in the models to suggest such a scenario. I think also it would have to be spectacular to beat 2009/10

Hmm, so me and Kbear ought to do our 10K on Sunday instead of Monday this week? We usually go out at about 7pm. Possibly during any snow fall we might have.

OTOH, it's very hilly where we live, so we could end up sliding down hills and doing 10K twice as fast as we usually do!

We've now got heavy snow forecast for Monday, even on BBC With more on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Guess I can write off the early part of next week then! Not good.

Hope you're feeling better today OYBBK. Really hoping for some snow here but we're in central Southampton right next to the sea and it seems to be the last place to get any.

I do wonder though, why they give out these percentage chances of precipitation which then turn out to be wildly wrong after another couple of model runs. Surely they should factor in the probability that the model is going to change, which would give us a far more realistic idea of what might happen. For example, all the places that had 90% chance of snow on Sat/Sun and no have very little chance.

Oybbk thank you for replying, that's good to hear

TheSkiinggardner. I've warned people to ignore those percentages for a reason! They are literally raw model output from GFS put into a form that makes people think they are a real forecast. There is no human input into them whatsoever. They are also a percentage chance of snow as per that model out run. The next model outrun could well give an entirely different percentage output.

Mo, from an ice point of view both days would be a bit rubbish, but any snow cover might help with grip

ok, having a look at what the next 3 days may bring.....

Saturday: Rain/snow moving very slowly south through the Midlands into southern england. Snow risk seems to be predominantly the western midlands and western central england but dont rule out snow over the chilterns and parts of salsibury plain. Watch out for ice tonight as temps drop.

Sunday: Main snow risk is for Scotland. Some significant accumulations possible away from nW scotland (where it will be too warm) Perhaps some snow showers in the east. Later on, maybe some snow moving in from the west, depending on the timing of a weather front moving in.

Monday: Main snow risk day for many. Met office have it as a messy mix, and for the west and south coast areas I would estimate this to be true.However some significant accumulations in places and a widespread freeze will make monday night into tuesday very hazardous indeed. A good time for yaktrax! Could be fun for those in the capital!

incidentally, does anyone know why my mumsnet screen keeps shrinking? It has made typing this very difficult indded as im typing into the worlds tiniest box and have to keep resetting it!

Ok, have had to move onto iPad!

GFS has gone off the deep end with temperatures for Wednesday night with temps of -14 for central England! I'm unconvinced! More like maybe -6 looking at the other models. It also now shows no breakdown until around the 24th which is lala land really. The ECMWF breaks it down from this coming Friday. So a big disagreement! No idea which one will be correct!

So I'm going to get rained on and frozen in my stupid dress today? Awesome!

Hope you can wrap up warm for your outdoor event today, OYBBK!

Ah, thanks OYBBK. I understand now. However, the Weather Channel app is also very guilty of this, releasing 90% probabilities of rain 3 days ahead and then predicting a sunny day 12 hours later. That is definitely end user targeted data and just doesn't make sense to me that they don't adjust for the probability that their current model is right.

I can see now why the snow storms are meant to be big though, we just had a violent rain, hail, thunder and lightening storm pass overhead. Not for long, but if that had been snow we would have been in blizzard territory.

Yup Toby. Tis a rubbish day for wearing dresses. Talking of which, if I don't get dressed NOW I'll be going to my meeting in my pjs!
See you all this evening :)

And if I don't get out of bed soon, I'll still be single at 3pm!

Is your wedding today Toby?

Yup :)

Ahhhhhhh, congratulations love.

You are gonna have an amazing day, whatever the weather.

Have a wonderful day Toby, best wishes for you and DH!!

Aawww, thanks :)

oooh yes, just realised ywhat day it was for you Toby :) I hope you have a wonderful day and that is the start of many many wonderful years for you both.