Wintry weather next week?

[petunia]

Metmonkey are forecasting this for next week. We'll see ~ probably a bit early to say for certain whether this will happen or whether it'll just be cold and frosty.

doh - see, I can't even properly!!

Oh how I laughed when I saw the forcast for our area on Sunday night, Monday am (up a hill in Derbyshire, more bloody snow!) usually I like snow, but I'm moving house on Monday and I have no idea if the removal wagon will be able to make it up our little street in SNOW!!!

Boris - that is most certainly not a fun thought! I hope it goes ok for you.

Ok - Brief look at the 00Z run of gfs (looking forward to the 06Z when it comes out) Note that the temps that the GFS is coming up with and the Met office are a bit different. The met office are predicting daytime mazes of only 1 or 2C even in the south from tomorrow. GFS is going for 3 or 4C.

GFS delays Fridays system so it doesn't really make it into the SE. If GFS is correct, then my doom and gloom prophecies for Friday rush hour are fortunately wrong. It also keeps temps up to 4C on the south on Saturday meaning that the forecast snow would actually be rain. I am not convinced that this is right - unless a warm sector is showing in the system.

I really want to see the next model run to see if this one was just a bit wonky or whether it is a trend but whatever GFS is showing for the south, it is pretty consistent for those 'up north' for very cold, potentially very snowy weather especially once we get into the weekend.

Don't forget the advisories for the next few days.

Aha - plagarised read an analysis of several different models and gfs is the only model showing the rainy sleet bit. Shows my problem of overly relying on just one model.

Still trying to decide whether to cancel our kent/Bradford trip. Trouble is, I don't really want to go. I know if I did, I would be all "snow shovels and flasks in the car come on everyone it'll be an adventure!" So I don't trust my own motives for being uncharacteristically sensible!

Tricky seeker. When the next model run comes out I'll update you with the latest thoughts which might help a bit.

ok, tis out.

it seems to keep things quite warm for the south - 3-4 and much of the east tomorrow day time. Friday is shows getting colder for the east apart from EA then daytime saturday 3-4 for the south.

snow wise it shows as I see it at the moment:
thursday - northern eastern england and scotland
friday - northern England and up - moving more into north midlands through evening.
Saturday
saturday - see friday
sunday - confined to ne coasts and scotland

UKMO shows Wales being hit hard by snow Saturday.

hmpff. oh well, perhaps it is wrong or perhaps some troughs will appear down here.

Ah rubbish :( I dont think we are going to see any snow here in Wilts after all then.

Whats UKMO oybbk? after all Wiltshire isn't a million miles away from Wales ... I just want to see some snow - a light dusting will do - im not fussy.

This is all way to technical for me but... it IS snowing here (on the North Yorks Moors) right now. And has been since about 7am this morning.

don't give up rosie - I actually have no faith in the gfs temps that it is predicting - I think it is going for too warm for the south. I'm only at 1.6C at the moment and the cold air isn't really here.

UKMO is another weather model. There are loads that different forecasters/companies use. They can vary quite dramatically in their predictions even only a day or two away. Soem have better reputations than others and they each have different strengths.

Each weather model is run up to a few times a day too - GFS is run 4 times a day and each run tends to have different characteristics too. (not sure why - different starting parameters)

So you can partly see why forecasting can be such a nightmare - which model do you choose under which circumstances?

Yay Mummyberry - is it beautiful? :)

It is . Only problem is that it wasn't forecast last night so gritters haven't been out and the roads are pretty dicey. DH may not be able to get home from work

Just glanced at the metmonkey messageboard and they all seem to be in despair at the latest model runs! Guess it shows the difficulties in forecasting snow!

Mummyberry you lucky thing! hope you are enjoying it.

If i know its going to snow i make DH leave the blinds up so i can watch it fall outside my window when i am falling asleep last winter i woke up in the middle of the night and it was snowing really heavily - wev'e got a Narnia style streetlight just outside our house and i just get up and watch it for ages.

OYBBK sounds very technical and i can see that the models are different depening on which source you choose but do you tend to go with the majority? Its bloody cold here but skies are relatively clear.

Ohhh hope your DH can get home ok Mummyberry!

Thanks rosie. It is really beautiful. I can never get over how silent snow it. It is surreal. From what you say OYBBK, it looks like we will have plenty over the next few days and the w/e. May make DH work from home.

MummyBerry ~ just heard on Radio 2's travel news that the road between Pickering and Whitby is either difficult to drive/blocked by snow (didn't quite catch which!) It must be looking very pretty up that way!

Metoffice have just updated their advisories.

OYBBK- i know that a warning has been issued for wales on friday, but do you any idea how far out of wales the snow is likely to extend? i am approx 40 miles from the border of wales.

F*ck! That means he's definitely not getting home.

rosie - I tend to use the GFS - not because it is better - but because it gives me a lot of data into a decent frame for free. I can look at other models but what I can see is quite limited. I'm considering looking round for a reasonable subscription service to decent data from the other models.

MummyBerry.

sorry Mummyberry :(

CM - hang on.... difficult to give setails even now I'm afraid. When the next model run comes out I'll have another look for you.

Has anyone seen the metcheck recently?? Orange!!

Is it going to snow in York please?