Wintry weather next week?

[petunia]

Metmonkey are forecasting this for next week. We'll see ~ probably a bit early to say for certain whether this will happen or whether it'll just be cold and frosty.

Killermouse ~ metmonkey have done another update and are saying this for the end of the week.

Thanks petunia looks like it may well be off then!

killermouse - impossible to say with any kind of certainty, but at the moment gfs is showing snow for your area I'm afraid. How much and when are impossible to say but unfortunately, your area is one of the more certain areas for snow. I hope it is ok for you.

Sue - looks more like rain for you on wednesday unless you are off out in the moors (but even then I suspect more likely to be rain - but I'm not very good at that kind of detail.

Can I just remind everyone that I am 100% an amateur and self taught. I have no professional experience and an awful lot to learn. I also have limited access to models. So please don't rely on my forecasts - particularly where it matters. Keep an eye out on met office for official forecasts. term.

where the hell did 'term' come from????

Yay! Bring it on!

Thank you kitten I'm v impressed anyway.

:) thank you Sue.

ought to just put in a quick proviso that the models I'm looking at won't pick up small scale weather. So sometimes for instance, depending on the direction the weather is coming from the Thames area will very quickly develop a 'Thames streamer' where a long chain of snow showers will feed down through the Thames valley area - depositing large amounts over night. Typically forecasters can only predict such an event a couple of days before hand. (such events have produced huge amounts in the south over the past couple of years)

I caught the BBC longer range forecast on Country File this morning. It was showing snow for the tail end of the week, but only on the very eastern extremities.

The talk was of sleet, suggesting really cold, wet and miserable without the brief magic of the white stuff.

Thanks for the info! So how likely is snow for me, do you think? also, we have a 'feels like' temp of -11! Is this winter going to be bad? Not in terms of snow, although that would be interessting, but in terms of coldest temps etc?

Ohyoubadkitten, I think you should have a disclaimer built in to your status - so when we hover over your name it says 'is unable to guarantee the weather for any given date'

or something

Ennis - that would be great!!! Then I wouldnt have a slightly worried feeing every time I share my thoughts.

Onimolap - It seems to be the case so often that Countryfile seem to not forecast potential major weather events. I'm not sure why at all. I'm sure that if they stated 'uncertain' 'potential for' then people would understand.

Inkystamp - no certainties for sure but a fairly reasonable chance I think by mid next week. out of interest, how did your region fare last winter? Local variations make such a difference (like poor Manchester often seems to do quite badly out of snow events]

The Met Office don't have any weather warnings out either. I think they (and the Beeb) are a bit more conservative these days about the longer range forecasts (anything over 3 days) as there's still plenty of scope for error.

That said, I've just been out into the garden, and it certainly smells more wintry IYSWIM.

TBH, OYBBK, I have no idea! I was down south...where we got snowed in!! That is why I am so interested in this area, because I have no idea!!1

I definitely SWYM :)

I think there is a danger for people to get themselves too over excited about the potential. After all, for many it is the end of the week and into the weekend we are looking at. Things change. It may simply be too dry for many to see any snow.

But I do think their temperature forecast is far too warm for the south for Friday - going for 7C when Met Office are going for near freezing. I cannot for the life of me see why they would forecast it to be so warm when none of the models support that.

oh fair enough Inky sorry!!! You'll have to be our live Hertfordshire reporter!!

Inky I'm a neighbour in Dunstable, Bedfordshire, where abouts are you in Herts?

Last winter here we had a good cover of snow, and like many the snow in Jan/Feb once on the ground stuck around for a good while.

Forecasts for this week coming have us down as having snow here.

As OYBBK says although the weather sites seem certain we will have snow (in this area) how much and when seems to be uncertain at the mo, as it gets nearer the picture will become clearer.

I hate snow

I am absolutely phobic about driving in it so as soon as it snows, I have to trek to the station and get the train to work. I don't want another winter like last winter!

oh interesting - gfs now predicting midday temps of around 4C for Friday now. That's a bit warmer - and if it remains so mean sleet for many. Will be interesting to see what the next model run says.

Our 5 day forecast on the BBC is saying 'light snow showers' for us here in Leicester for Thursday and on the local TV news, they hinted at snow for the end of the week as well. What that usually means is that it'll be the Peak District that gets it all!
It'll be interesting to see how the forecast changes as we go through the week and whether we actually get any of these snow showers.

We have had sleet already but more like really thick rain than proper sleet IYSWIM.

You are right Petunia it will be an interesting week especially when short term synoptics come into play. I guess the watch phrase for the week is 'don't get your hopes up, but be prepared'

I'm glad you started this thread :)

Marking my place hopefully here near Sittingbourne.

:) Will have a look at the latest models in the morning.

OYBBK - I need it not to snow please. As I've explained on another thread my sister is getting married on Saturday. My bil is terminally ill, the whole thing is so very, very hard - snow will just finish us off! Please assure me we will be able to drive from York to Lincolnshire - near A1 without blizzards!!!

Can we just have snow from 24th Dec to 1st Jan please. That would mean minimal chaos and maximum sledging time. I've never had an Xmas off work before and the dc's might actually like snow this year .