GCSE predicted grades

[Summertimemadness2026]

Curious as to how most schools calculate the predicted grades they provide to sixth forms. DS is at an independent school who have said they don't give predicted grades, only their best mock grades. This has meant that DS has not go an offer at one of our preferred sixth forms. It doesn't seem fair to give mock grades as predicted grades as most grades typically go up by at least 1-2 grades, especially in my DS's case as he didn't do that much revision for his mocks. He got a mix of 7s & 8s but annoying got two 6s in the subjects he wants to study for A-level (the whole cohort found the papers tough and messed up to some extent) and he needs a 7 for one of them (maths) so didn't get on his course. In the real thing, I am sure he will get at least a 7 so seems unfair to use his mock grade.

People come here for advice, not to be criticised on what they've done wrong

@Summertimemadness2026 no one is criticising you for what you have done wrong.

If someone states that their DC who has gained a grade 6 in a maths GCSE mock in Feb/March of year 11 is planning to do A level maths, it suggests that they may not be aware that this may not be the best plan.

A number of people have commented to that effect; but there is no criticism of you or your DS for doing anything wrong in that comment.

What I will say tho is that you have been rude to a number of posters who have taken the time to comment in what is intended to be a helpful way. I wonder how you would take it if someone talking to you told you directly "don't be so blinkered", or "you don't understand" or "you can lecture all you like"? It's quite rude. And no, it’s not rude to call someone rude when they are being rude.

Anyway like @SheilaFentiman I wish your son all the best in his upcoming GCSEs.

I’ll share our experience. My DD had the school put her predicted GCSE grades in her Sixth Form applications. Then she sat entrance exams or submitted work for two of her A level subjects and was given a conditional offer or rejected from her choices. Her History PG was an 8, but she didn’t do very well in her entrance exam so while the sixth form was inclined to make an offer, they suggested maybe Art History. Her History teacher wrote to the school expressing belief that she would indeed get the 8 (which she did, getting all her grades as predicted). On results day the school asked her to send her grades over and her place was confirmed.
Her sixth form must have remained unconvinced and predicted a B for A level History. Fortunately she took a gap year as she got A*s for all her A levels and she was able to get in to a uni that may not have made her an offer with a B prediction.
So results may be better than PGs, though I believe as far as A levels are concerned they are usually lower.

DS’s school only accepts students for A level maths who achieve a grade 8 or higher at GCSE. They would not offer A level maths to a student who achieved a grade 6 in the mocks.

Answering your actual question;

I’ve not come across any schools this apply a standard uplift to a mock result to give a predicted grade.

Some seem to just use the mock result.

Others take a wider view and the mock result is one input to that. Eg. A mock of a 7, most class homework at 9 level and in class assessments mainly at 8 level would get predicted an 8. A mock at 8, but all other class work and assessments at 6 level would get a 6 or at mid a 7 predicted.

It’s also important to keep in mind that mocks aren’t a standard exam. Some schools use past papers with no adjustment for where syllabus is up to. Some create their own papers taking into account Whats still to be taught. Uplifts on the former may be required, uplifts on the latter are more likely to be unrealistic inflation.

Exam technique is also a more relevant factor than was historically. If the candidates is poor, even if they’ve got good knowledge, they’ll still get a lower result. Mocks are a good indicator of that. The person marking can generally tell whether the candidate knows the stuff and fluffed the exam technique vs doesn’t know the stuff. Some take that angle into predictions, some dont.

Super helpful, thanks

I agree OP and I’m not sure why you’re getting a hard time and advice that you haven’t asked for.

Of course an intelligent child who doesn’t work for their mocks will go up if they knuckle down and revise for the real exams ! And with those set of grades without much work then he’s clearly going to do very well. But this is Mumsnet and everyone’s child is a genius.

My DS is no genius. And has ADHD. He did no work for his mocks. Went up at least a grade or two in the real things. English went from a 2 to a 7!!

It is frustrating that they use mocks but I guess some children do do lots of work for their mocks. Hopefully there will be some movement once the results come out - I know there is around here. So try not to worry too much.

That sounds really frustrating and I don't think it's fair either. Mock grades absolutely don't reflect what kids can do when they've actually revised properly. Our DS is 15 and there was a big difference between his mock performance and what he was capable of when motivated. The mock revision period was when we finally found an approach that worked for him , anything with a gamification element rather than just past papers on repeat. His engagement went through the roof and his scores jumped noticeably. If your DS got 7s and 8s without much revision then a 7 in the real thing sounds very achievable. Is there any scope to appeal or provide additional evidence to the sixth form? Seems mad to close a door based on a mock.

The sixth forms will take into account the likely trajectory from mock grade to GCSE, based on past data. Your ds might go from a 6 to a 7 in maths. Maybe they've got people applying who got a 7 and might go up to an 8, so they've been able to fill their spots with those pupils. They've no way of knowing that your ds will overtake other students. If he does you can try and get a spot with grades in hand.

I can see why schools don't want to give predicted grades. Parents will pressure them to predict a higher grade than the school thinks they are capable of, then be angry when the child doesn't achieve this. "Why didn't he achieve the grade you predicted?"

We had to send a report with mock grades when applying to sixth forms.

My daughter hadn't even done her mocks when she applied. My son had done them, but they had not been given the results back at that point.

My dcs' average Comp accepted dc with a 7 to do A level maths, but said an 8 was better. This is because only 25% of dc who get a 7 in maths GCSE achieve higher than a C at A Level, as per the table in your link

Yes we applied for 6th Form before mocks so we had to use the Yr10 end of year grades. Which is madness really! The 6th form base their offer on what they actually get in the real thing which makes more sense. We just had to get the application in. It’s a conditional offer so he needs to achieve the grades.

You clearly have a vested interest in it not being true, but it is 🤷🏻‍♀️

They seemed to call them mocks from Year 10 when they took exams. We had to send a report with most recent grades on. I can't remember exactly when the grades were from. Did your dcs' school predict grades instead of sending actual results?

They didn’t call year 10 end of term exams mocks in either of their schools.

Dds Year 10 report had working at levels on, Ds’s had some weird unique system that didn’t relate to gcse grades at all.

neither school gave official predicted grades until the Feb/March of their exam year We got unofficial predictions from individual teachers at parents evening in the previous Oct/Nov

I think they called the exams mocks early on to get the kids to take it more seriously.

My DCs secondary school seems to predict up a grade for some subjects but not others. But how much the grades change between mocks to GCSEs can vary. My two DDs had everything from dropping a grade to going up 3 grades between mocks and GCSEs.

Interestingly, both DDs got a 6 in Feb mocks in subjects they subsequently got an 8 at GCSE in and are now doing the A level and got A star in their Feb mocks (one in Y12, one in Y13, both doing STEM subjects). So far I'd say hard work seems to count far more than GCSE grades when determining results at A level, they both know people who have gone from 9 at GCSEs to low grades at A levels because they aren't putting in the work.

And to address the math question, DD2 is doing A level maths and further maths. She got a 7 in her mock and a solid 8 in her GCSEs. She loves maths but does work hard at it and is getting good grades at A level in maths and FM. It's not helpful to pretend that A level maths is only suitable for maths geniuses, as her GCSE teacher said, it's all about the practice, if you do lots of practice questions you will get the grades.

Some students who don't get stellar grades at GCSE will do extremely well at A level. It's still helpful to know the data on correlation between GCSE and A level grades for Maths that an experienced Maths teacher on mumsnet regularly shares.

That grade conversion data is not representative though, 2017 was the first year of the new GCSEs, then the results for the next four years after that were impacted by the pandemic (TAG for A levels in 2020 and 21 then for GCSEs for the kids sitting A levels in 22 and 23). In 24 the kids doing A levels had Y10 impacted by the pandemic so last year was the first real data (and I've not seen conversion data for that yet). I'm sure it will continue to show that people who do well at GCSE tend to do better at A level that those who get average grades but it does not suggest you should only do A level maths if you got a 9.

It’s a valid point that we could so with some up-to-date data (that ignored the Covid years indeed). But tbh I don't think that chart says only do A level maths with a 9. Roughly 50% of those taking it with a 7 got a C+ on that chart which is a pretty decent grade. And most of those gaining an 8 got a B or higher. DS got offers for multiple RG unis partly on the strength of his maths grade B.

My DS bucked the trend regarding Maths. Predicted 6 at gcse and got 7. Went on to A Level and is now predicted an A. Massive amount of catching up and hard work in yr 12/13!

Could you share a link to the current conversion stats please? Everything has changed after covid indeed, would be interesting to see more recent data.