GCSE predicted grades

[Summertimemadness2026]

Curious as to how most schools calculate the predicted grades they provide to sixth forms. DS is at an independent school who have said they don't give predicted grades, only their best mock grades. This has meant that DS has not go an offer at one of our preferred sixth forms. It doesn't seem fair to give mock grades as predicted grades as most grades typically go up by at least 1-2 grades, especially in my DS's case as he didn't do that much revision for his mocks. He got a mix of 7s & 8s but annoying got two 6s in the subjects he wants to study for A-level (the whole cohort found the papers tough and messed up to some extent) and he needs a 7 for one of them (maths) so didn't get on his course. In the real thing, I am sure he will get at least a 7 so seems unfair to use his mock grade.

It's true that the results are the ones that will be carried through to the future and in that sense they are the ones that matter most.

Actually tho as your post shows, mocks and PGs also matter. They have a value (otherwise why do them at all?). That value may indeed be to encourage a student who has not fulfilled their potential to do more work; they may inform ideas about post-16 choices (which have to be considered, at least, before results day in August) and they may give a steer to sixth forms as to likely performance.

As I said, I know plenty of YP who worked for their mocks and got similar grades in the actual exams.

I think it is unfortunate OP that you and your DS didn't appear to know how your school did predicted grades, but worrying now about what other schools do is pretty irrelevant to next steps.

OP don't read this next bit as you don't want to hear it

MN threads are not google, they are more of a conversation. So threads often go off on tangents which may or may not be helpful to the OP.

I once said something on a thread like 'presumably you have tried X' which was a tangent to the question asked but of general relevance. The OP came back thanking me as it was something they had completely overlooked and actually solved the problem at hand.

And talking about requirements maths A level is pretty relevant. Anyone looking to do well at maths at A level should generally be finding GCSE a walk in the park.

And I know plenty who did a lot better in the real thing as they had months longer to prepare.

The main value is practice for the real thing, a chance to get it wrong and NOT be judged, to learn and know what to do different next time. I actually don't think they have that much use for applications other than as a general guide.

It's not irrelevant because it does inform next steps with this particular sixth form. For example, they have said they will consider revised grades sent directly by the school so that may be an option, or we can change course. My post/question so I decide what's relevant.

If you want to start a discussion about whether or not to do A-level Maths with a grade 7 then why don't you start another thread? Clearly most schools this this is ok as pretty much all admissions policies require only a 7. Why not start a campaign if you think it's too low? DS may want to change his A-level choices any way as there are other subjects he's interested in but we're not worrying about that now.

It also depends where hw was within the grade boundary. If he just scraped in it is perfectly reasonable to give this as a predicted grade. I am not sure I would want to teach a student who failed to revise because he thought the test was unimportant. Not good impression.

So defensive and rude. Mocks are important as they are the opportunity to revise and do the work and then understand where they need to focus their efforts, if you can't see that then that's on you.

How do his mocks compare to his progress in other tests? Is the mock result really abnormal.

In the schools by us, there is a huge amount of movement on results day. There will be those who achieve lower than expected and those that achieve higher than expected. The schools advise all students to go in with their results and they take it from there. It’s like Clearing day! I’ve seen plenty of students getting onto A Level courses they’d originally been rejected from and students who had to do a rethink on the day. I’d be surprised if it’s not the same at the schools by you OP. DDs school didn’t provide a predicted grade, we just used the last school report to apply for 6th Form and College. DDs results were way higher in the actual exams. It seems that every school is doing its own thing, so I’m sure everything will be fine. Just accept whatever place is offered for now and move later when the actual results are in.

My DD came through GCSE’s last year at a state school. At parents evening, we were told that their predicted grades were based generally on mock results but adjusted based on what they knew of the student and their general work ethic. Those who didn’t seem to have revised, were mainly predicted their mock results, but a few friends had a higher mock where the teacher must have felt that they were studying hard already and were hopefully going to do better. This is based on my DD and what her friends were predicted. Their actual grades were pretty similar to predicted grades, although a couple who were predicted higher, didn’t actually get the higher grade. My DD thinks this was because they ran out of steam and didn’t put in the effort that they had planned to, or in the case of a couple of cocky kids, they saw the predicted grade as being guaranteed and didn’t bother.

I don’t think it’s the case that they do/should automatically inflate predicted grades by 1-2. As I said, my DD’s broadly got what they were predicted and this was mainly their mock results.

I know you didn’t ask about this but maths is really a subject that kids need to be studying hard well before exams and not last minute studying. They need to understand most of the content to progress to A levels. My DD got a 9 with a very high mark but has still had to work very hard this year. Others who got 7’s in her class have really struggled and there have been lots of tears from her friends who are currently predicted C’s and D’s. That’s not said with any judgement as no one can force their kids to revise but putting in the work much earlier for GCSE maths, really does pay off if they want to continue it to A level.

OK I cross-posted with this post from you @Summertimemadness2026 , and then had to pop out, so just to address this.

Firstly I see you quoted me again, this time pretty much agreeing that mocks do matter, even if they don’t “count”. And yes, I also know some YP whose grades went up from mocks. Not as many as stayed the same pretty much tho.

No I don't think the fact that I am a teacher means my DC did more work. If only that were automatically the case.

The abilities of my three DC vary hugely and so did the way they approached GCSEs and the results they gained. One of my DC has LD and did not do lots more revision bc his mum is a teacher. I offered to support where I could (and ofc a teacher has an advantage that they understand exam technique and know the spec of their own subjects) and where it was welcomed, I did.

I am not sure why that makes me blinkered tbh.

I am well aware of the GCSE stats, thanks, and that a minority do not gain L2 passes, but actually, the grades students gain will be a function of a number of things, not just how much revision they do between mocks and actual exams: their interest in the subject, their innate ability, the support they receive in school and at home, topics or questions that come up on the paper, their plan post-16 (and hence their focus on specific subjects), even factors on the day such as being ill, a family member's illness, death of a pet, gf splitting up with them.

I made it clear in my post that I am talking about YP I know. My own DC, their close friends maybe, the YP I taught. Tbh none of us has any more than a selection of anecdata on this – pretty sure there are no national stats collected one how much work 15-16yos do between mocks and real GCSEs.

You are right that the way PGs are arrived at varies between schools (I wouldn't call it arbitrary to use a mock result tho) and that's great that your DS has other options; if he prefers another destination and is on target to get the grades needed there then I am sure he will get there. All the best to him.

No lecturing here and misuse of this term. You accused me of having a chip on my shoulder so perhaps take your own advice? But yes judgement on your confrontational tone which you have again doubled down on here. Well done.👏

Colleges work with the information they have from mocks and information from teachers, so the answer to the original question is probably that some establishments use mock results, some may use predicted grades and some might use both.

You're annoyed that your son didn’t get an offer that he wanted OP, but you say he has got an offer elsewhere and he may still get a place after the results are published.

I'm a Head of Department and I produce the predicted grades. We assess once every two weeks, from Y10, using exam questions and the relevant grade boundaries. I use this data to produce an overall grade picture. I then cross reference this with the mocks. Depending on attitude to learning and homework, I might revise upwards by one grade. As you can probably understand, I can only go on the data I have. I do tell the children and their families that attendance, assessments and mocks are important for this reason.

Edit to add: I'm also an examining marker for the exam board so am pretty good at ensuring papers are scored correctly.

I'm a teacher, I've worked in secondaries and sixth forms. I don't teach maths (although currently doing subject training to teach GCSE maths resits in FE). The consistent thing I hear from maths teachers is maths had to come extremely natural for you to do A Level maths. The step up is much bigger than most subjects. While you might get away with a 6/B at GCSE history and manage A Level, that's not the case with Maths. I remember my old maths teacher saying you'd need at least an A (7 in new money) to even consider doing maths A Level. My own mum did O level maths and got an A (pre-A*) and got a D at A Level. The advice hasn't really changed over the decades. A Level Maths is hard. If you haven't got a high 7 at least, look at other subjects. Getting a 6 in a mock isn't a sign of someone who Maths comes extremely natural to.

My experience, as a teacher who has had to change grades for a student to get a place is a complete waste of time. Students have to get the grades. If they exceed expectations they will get new offers. This is not worth stressing about.

What does his maths teacher say? When was the mock paper sat? If it was in January, maybe they hadn’t finished the course. If it was more recently there is less chance that he will go up by more than a grade.

Unless someone is a strong 7 (had a bad day but would normally have got an 8) they shouldn’t contemplate doing A’level maths.

In answer to your original question, my DD school provide predicted grades. However, these are usually lower than the mocks so that they have a 'buffer' and apply for the correct A Levels. For example, DD was graded 9s in both rounds of mocks for English Literature and Language, plus maths. But predicted 8s. The sixth forms have been given 8s and we haven't questioned that.

I do wonder, however, if the attitude of 'not really revising for mocks' is the reason your child has not been offered places. Top sixth forms here have many children achieving 7/8/9 grades across every subject, so have to offer places based upon attitude too. They want students that are driven and have the determination to work throughout. If your child achieves higher, he may be able to reapply but it will still be noted that his grade went up at the end, and he wasn't consistently scoring highly.

We had twins at different schools one state and one private and yes from understanding is you are right - predicted grades not mocks. Most kids have not finished the curriculum yet at mock time so they are not expected to know all the paper - so said my son's grammar school teachers and grammar schools tend to be ahead on curriculum.

My sister achieved a 9 at GCSE and found A Level Maths incredibly difficult so I don’t think a 6 would be sufficient (in terms of breadth of knowledge). I appreciate you don’t seem to want to hear that though.

Is your son in Y11? If so, GCSE exams start next month. Do you think he’s put in the necessary work to get a 7? A level is a big jump from GCSE and if he’s going to be successful, he should be getting a high 7 or an 8 for GCSE.

Some are based on what their SATS were at the end of KS2, these pass on to Secondary which can be a good indicator or wildly inaccurate, English and Maths can be fairly on point but 1:1 tuition can boost them.

Some schools base them on their tests which are recorded and analysed over the years along with their mocks. Since Covid mocks should have heavy importance as you never know. Generally as a rule of thumb if they do bad in their mocks they do better in the real thing, and also vica versa. Also KS5 applications look at these so also important.

Yes, it's perfectly possible to go up a grade from mocks. It's also possible not to, and I've even seen someone go down for no reason other than complacency (and it was particularly unfortunate as he failed to get a grade on higher tier).

Did the school give it as "predicted grade" or as "grade on recent mock"? If they made it clear that it was the latter, then absolutely no problem. They may be concerned to be as even-handed as possible, in which case the mock result is objective. As someone else said, the cynical explanation is that they want to discourage people from leaving.

DD's school, which is an 11-16 school well-used to giving predicted grades, did not appear to have a consistent policy even across the sciences - one science teacher did not predict any 9s, despite some mock results clearly above the boundary. The other science teachers did predict 9s after mocks. So I do think there are sometimes problems. Their inconsistent policy may have affected people's A-level choices - there's a certain amount of confidence needed to stick with applying for the science for which your prediction is lowest. I guess that at least your DS's school is consistent.

You said that he had been told he can apply post-results, so there's no great harm done.

Whilst I know your question was about how grades are predicted, I would agree that it's worth thinking about the wisdom of doing maths. Most people I know who have gone on to maths A-level did not actually do very much revision for GCSE - if you've got a good enough understanding to do A-level, then there's not a lot to be revised. By September, the revision effect will probably have worn off again. Anyone looking at doing maths with a 7 is well-advised to take any summer work issued at sixth-form taster days very seriously, as they need to be able to hit the ground running with GCSE algebra secure.

Teacher of maths and science here. Predicted grades are done on mock results and students are generally warned of this. Grades might increase by a small bit but not by 2+ grades. It's often not the teachers but a school policy and some schools will look harshly upon teachers who over-predict. Ultimately everything has to be evidenced and mocks are the best indicator a school has.
With Maths a 6 at GCSE is generally the minimum requirement to take it at A-Level due to the difficulty of the subject and the massive jump from Year 11 to Year 12. A 6 at GCSE generally predicts and achieves an E/D at A-Level. Only students with an 8/9 and a super work ethic will go on to get top grades at a higher level.

@Summertimemadness2026 schools can predict gcse grades however they want, and are under no obligation to predict them at all. They are subjective, not objective.

I just posted this on another thread, but it's relevant here too...

The impact of predicted grades on sixth form admissions completely depends on whether you're applying to private or state and, if state, whether it's a school sixth form or a sixth form college. Even then, it will depend on the year 12 admissions policy of the individual school, which you will find on their website.

If it is a state school sixth form (in England), then they are not allowed to prioritise admissions offers by predicted grade (some do, but shouldn't - it is against the national Schools Admissions Code because predicted grades aren't objective). If it is a sixth form college, then they are not bound by the Code (though they are meant to be fair and reasonable). If it is a private school they can do what they like.

Yes, it is normal for some children to have no uplift from their mock to their predicted grade at this stage. Whether we add additional grades from the mock to the predicted will depend on multiple factors, including how hard the student appears to be working, the improvement between the prior mock and this one, and whether the grade seems to be representative of their work in lessons. If they're doing excellent work in lessons but just stumbled in the mock, we'll give a benefit of doubt uplift. But if they don't seem to be trying that hard and there's no evidence that they should be getting higher than their mock grade, then we won't lift the grade. It's uncommon for students to have a big jump between now and May, given there's only a 2-3 month gap. If a student hasn't learned it by February/March, we wouldn't expect them to have learned much more by May.