GCSE predicted grades

[Summertimemadness2026]

Curious as to how most schools calculate the predicted grades they provide to sixth forms. DS is at an independent school who have said they don't give predicted grades, only their best mock grades. This has meant that DS has not go an offer at one of our preferred sixth forms. It doesn't seem fair to give mock grades as predicted grades as most grades typically go up by at least 1-2 grades, especially in my DS's case as he didn't do that much revision for his mocks. He got a mix of 7s & 8s but annoying got two 6s in the subjects he wants to study for A-level (the whole cohort found the papers tough and messed up to some extent) and he needs a 7 for one of them (maths) so didn't get on his course. In the real thing, I am sure he will get at least a 7 so seems unfair to use his mock grade.

Predicted grades give you an offer. You have to achieve those grades to get a place. So if anyone over estimates then those kids are disappointed. Can you imagine how enraged parents are then?

if your child exceeds his mock grades - and in my experience this can go both ways - he can reapply for a place. Ask the college the process for this. Either way, they need a back up in place in the event that their mock grades are the same as their final grades. Better to put your effort in here than worrying about whether the establishment of grades are fair.

Why didn't he revise for mocks? It was drummed into all the kids doing mocks at my child's school that sixth forms would see the mock results and offer places based on this. From half way through year ,10 my kids where revising, because it's the end of year 10 mocks that the sixth forms look at.

Mocks also count, You've seen that for yourself. Get good mock grades you get an offer, don't get good grades you dont get an offer

So you want to know how most schools predict results, but the school your child goes to does it in a way that is outside the norm...that's on you not knowing that...and I say this with two children in an independent school. They tend to do their own way in many things, i.e. the don't do SATs in prep so entry into seniors is their own process with their own baseline. The students your son is up against for sixth form entry are in schools that predict grades on a tried and tested state formula, the college will know the independent school is not so robust in their predictions.

I think you just have to accept that your school does it their way, no point arguing that now or comparing with others and tell your son to put some effort in for the real exams and then look at your options.

An independent school with its own sixth form would not be giving out that message to students I can guarantee.

Well surely a parent should be encouraging revision.

The problem with school using mocks is that all mocks are different.

my daughter’s mocks were in January and in some subjects they were only given parts of the papers they had covered in class. In other subjects they were given the full paper. It was generally thought they would get a grade higher than they’d scored on the former as they would be working on exam technique between then and the real thing but up to 2 grades higher on the latter once they had completed the syllabus.

my sons mocks were November and it was generally thought everyone would go up at least 1-2 grades.

Absolutely this. The correlation between GCSE grades and Alevel grades is particularly stark in Maths. Dds 6th form college actively discouraged those who didn't get an 8 or 9 from continuing with maths. I appreciate the OPs optimism but query what it's based on.

Absolutely I agree as a parent with children in an independent school it is all on us drum into them anything that is needed for other options. We are in an 11+ area and our prep school did nothing to help children with it, whereas local primary schools do.

I've responded to you on another thread. You've said your DS1 did better in lot of his mock exams - and getting 7s or 8s already at this point in GCSE mocks is great - he might or might not do better in those. But while 6 (or a B) is a perfectly respectable grade in general in GCSEs , he's applying to colleges with above average entry requirements for A level, and which get a lot of applications from students who are already getting grade 9 in mocks, predictions or whatever, including students at very selective state grammars, very competitive comprehensives and schools which struggle but do have some students who do well. My son applied (and did get an offer) 3 years ago, though in the end he chose Alexandra Park. One of his friends did choose Woodhouse for a similar combination of subjects, and apparently found it tough initially, though he eventually found his feet.

From what you have posted about your DS, he has the potential to do really well in another combination of subjects, including ones that he has done better in in his mocks, and might get an offer from Woodhouse or a similarly competitive sixth form. You've also said that he's already considering that.

Mock grades for my DD were pretty spot on. Not sure where you have got the idea ‘most get 1-2 grades’ better.

Teachers don’t like predicting 9’s as the grade boundaries for a 9 are so tight but mostly the mocks were pretty spot on.

My DD got 9’s in Maths and Further Maths at GCSE. Maths A level she is predicted an A but Further Maths A level she is predicted a C-B. It has been a very long hard slog to get those grades and maths is her autistic specialist subject so something she excels in.

You are correct that Maths A level definitely isn’t for the 6/7 level kids.

I know at least 3 kids who got 7s in Maths GCSE and are predicted A at A-level. One has an offer from Exeter for Computer Science and needs an A in Maths. If only kids with an 8 or a 9 are capable of achieving well at A-level then they would change the admission criteria. Some kids will get a result, not just in Maths, which does not reflect their ability for whatever reason. On the other hand, DSD got a 9 in GCSE Maths as she revised like crazy (she got 9s in all subjects as she did an incredible amount of prep) but had to give up AS level Maths as she found it too hard. Exams are not just about ability but about how mature, organised and workish your 15/16 year old is. Some get there a bit later and that's ok. So I will keep having faith in my DS if that's ok. Happy to come back here and say I was wrong but I am pretty sure he will get at least a 7, more likely a 8 in Maths. Not that that was the point of the question but for some reason a few mumsnetters want to give a lecture on this subject. Just to be clear, again, he/I are not making any decisions on A-levels now. If he got a 7 in Maths then we may re-think. But it's a pointless exercise at this point.

DS for a few marks off a 9 in English Lit, Lang and French mocks and his school have his grade as an 8 as using the mock grade, no uplift.

I would never (or hardly ever) predict a grade 9 tbh (in MFL, my subject). I once had a student who really was never going to get anything else, but as a rule I would favour PG of 7+. I think it puts less pressure on.

No one is lecturing you @Summertimemadness2026 you did say your DS wanted to study maths for A level and people are just trying to be helpful. If a student started maths A level with a 6/borderline 7 (which tbh a 6 in mocks suggests to me) they might find it tough and wish they had known beforehand so they could pick something else. That's what a maths teacher who posts here often has experienced. That's all.

Btw obviously it's possible to gain an A at A level maths from a 7 at GCSE. Some students will. Just as some will gain a C from a 9. But overall there are stats which suggest likely outcomes and for maths they are quite striking. It'e best to be aware.

OP, when you do the applications, just say your school does not do predicted grades, so your DC has made their own predictions backed up by evidence (including the mock results). Some schools will find this acceptable, others won't.

I don't think you've stated what type of schools you are applying to but, as I mentioned up thread, state school sixth forms should not use subjective predictive grades to decide who gets an offer and who doesn't. They should give all applicants a provisional offer, then apply their admissions criteria and oversubscription criteria when the actual results are known. no

This is what I've been a bit confused about as I am pretty sure that DS had to enter his own predicted grades, not the school. His current school had to provide a reference so I think maybe as part of that they had to provide predicted grades but, again, not sure what they provided given their policy of not providing predicted grades, only mock results. I am not sure how students are supposed to give their own predicted grades and what they are supposed to be based on. DS would have given lower predicted grades then he actually achieved for some subjects. So do school sixth forms have to disregard predictions and offer places anyway? DS got an offer at another very popular sixth form including to do A-level Maths which requires a 7 (again, really not sure what information his current school gave in terms of grade predictions) - is that because it's a school sixth form rather than a separate college?

"I am not sure how students are supposed to give their own predicted grades and what they are supposed to be based on"

Teachers could say the same.

If they did do predictions, they could either follow a method given by the school (which would be different to other schools) or just use finger in the air. It's completely subjective. For A level predictions, UCAS gives some guidance (minimal guidance, but better than nothing) and there is some incentive to provide them because schools want their students to get University offers. For GCSE predictions there is no guidance, and there is a perverse disincentive for schools with their own sixth forms to help students to go to rival sixth forms.

"DS would have given lower predicted grades then he actually achieved for some subjects"

He needs to do it based on the info he has now, not previously.

"So do school sixth forms have to disregard predictions and offer places anyway?"

State schools should only use predicted grades or mock results to have conversations with students about whether they are choosing A levels wisely. They should not use them as a reason to reject or de-prioritise applicants. The Schools Adjudicator has told schools that do the latter that their policies/procedures are not compliant with the Admissions Code.

Many still seem to do it, but it can be challenged if they do.

I went through state Sixth form applications with DD last year. She could have stayed at her existing state grammar.

Every school we applied to had different criteria. For one they wanted a reference so we did not apply as she was not 100 per cent sure she actually wanted to leave her school. For another, she had to input her own predictions, for yet another she had to input the school’s official predictions (which we had from state grammar, based on several sets of mocks(!), general attitude to homework, diligence - in fact we official predicted grades from the end of year 10 mocks in every report), one school we applied and they never got back to us (not sure they got her application), some we got provisional offers based on her inputted predicted grades or far lower benchmark minimum grades the school in question had (after getting her predicted grades). In the end she ended up at a school that does not do any provisional offers and only offers after GCSE results and only to the very top performers, literally in order of points and then you have to wait and see if you even get the subjects you wanted, which she did in the end.
The conclusion: it is an inconsistent mess of a system at Sixth Form level. It is a case by case basis and was a headache on results day, but we managed and it all worked out somehow.

Your conclusion is correct. But, just to add, many of those schools will also be in breach of the Admissions Code. Many Local Authorities turn a blind eye at Year 12 because they have no formal coordination role. Schools often don't understand the Code, because it is not as clear as it should be at Year 12 - you have to have followed previous judgements to know how it should be interpreted.

As a secondary maths teacher of 20 years, who teaches mainly A level maths, but has top set year 11 this year, I would expect students to add the same between their mocks in November and March and March until the real exams. Which works out at about a third of a grade each time.

I would not advise someone who didn't work hard for their mocks to do A level maths, because he doesn't have the right work ethic for what is a relentless subject right from the beginning, especially if he only scrapes a 7. Everything he has told you about "others in the class got similar" sounds like a typical teenager justifying their lack of effort.

DD's school do IQ tests at the start of year 7 and this forms the basis for their expectations throughout the school. Predicted grades are set end year 9 using this and year 9 end of year exams (plus teacher knowledge of kids). They are measured against this throughout the GCSE two year course with updates as to whether they are on track for prediction or working under or over (with the actual number given - ie. predicted 7 but working at 6 so red etc).

DD did not work hard enough for mocks and we are hoping to see an uptick of 1-2 grades per subject with some actual work for the real things.

We have within school variation, with some subjects marking from the start to the standard expected in the final exam, with the aim being to improve over time, these tend to be qualitative exams, such as English or French. The mock might be "uplifted" but it isn't an artificial inflation as you are suggesting, it's on the track towards a certain grade at the level the student is working at. Other subjects, including maths, have a high correlation between mock and final results and no uplifting, it's the content being tested rather than the quality, if that makes sense - you can test 3/4 of knowledge 3/4 of the way through the course perfectly well.

My point being that you can craft mocks to be the equivalent to the final exam at an earlier point in time or you can craft them to be the same level of the final exam, with an expectation of filling the gaps and going up. Neither is an artificial uplift, and your school doing the former is perfectly valid, not a disadvantage.

Nobody uplifts grades on the idea the child might suddenly get their act together, if they haven't so far. The predicted grades represent the path they are on, if a variable (like effort, pressure etc) changes, only then would it change. It's reasonable he didn't get a space and it's also reasonable that he gets in touch if/when he gets better results to see if he can then be offered a place.

As a teacher of 20 years, you think you would be able to read the initial question and see that I am not seeking advice on whether or not he should do A-levels Maths. You can lecture all you like but I will disregard as not what we are focusing on right now.

I disagree entirely. Your theory completely discounts the final few months before exams where students will have a lot of time to revise both in school and outside of school. DS has finished the curriculum and all lessons from now until his exams are revision, going over stuff they learnt once or didn't learn properly and learning it again, learning from mistakes made during mocks, doing multiple past papers. You're telling me what makes no difference? Nonsense.