GCSE predicted grades

[Summertimemadness2026]

Curious as to how most schools calculate the predicted grades they provide to sixth forms. DS is at an independent school who have said they don't give predicted grades, only their best mock grades. This has meant that DS has not go an offer at one of our preferred sixth forms. It doesn't seem fair to give mock grades as predicted grades as most grades typically go up by at least 1-2 grades, especially in my DS's case as he didn't do that much revision for his mocks. He got a mix of 7s & 8s but annoying got two 6s in the subjects he wants to study for A-level (the whole cohort found the papers tough and messed up to some extent) and he needs a 7 for one of them (maths) so didn't get on his course. In the real thing, I am sure he will get at least a 7 so seems unfair to use his mock grade.

as most grades typically go up by at least 1-2 grades

I'm not sure that's true. It certainly wasn't for my DD1, but she did work for her mocks.
Did your DS know they would use mock grades? If so he was a bit foolish not to work harder.

I'm assuming this is school 6th forms with very high entry requirements? Private or state? I have a feeling state schools aren't allowed to use predicted grades but an admissions expert could confirm.

I'd be worried about Maths A level if he is only getting a 6 in the mocks, as that implies he could be a 'scrape a 7' not a 'was expected an 8 but screwed up' or even 'solid 7'.

From what I’ve read and heard from mathematicians, in order to cope with maths at A level, you really need a top grade at GCSE. A 6 or 7 often means struggling in year 12.

I’d try to manage expectations for 6th form and be very pleased if the grades improve for the summer exams.

The issue with maths is a 7 at GCSE does mean they are missing a lot of foundational knowledge and so his likely grade at A level is a D/C. Him getting a 6 is the borderline for taking the higher paper in a lot of schools. Sadly many children realise too late they should have done more revision for their mocks.

A predicted grade is a guess, an achieved mock grade is more solid so I can see why they do it. A grade 6 for 2 out of 3 A level subjects is probably the reason they rejected him.

Here is the info about the maths grades by a teacher who teaches both GCSE and A level maths..

www.mumsnet.com/talk/secondary/4007205-How-maths-GCSE-result-predicts-A-level-maths-result-important-for-grade-6-7?

You seem to be making lots of excuses he didn’t work and got the grades he got, and often predicted grades are higher as they are done on best case scenarios.

I think that's the OP's point though. If predicted grades from other schools are higher as they're based on best case scenarios, then her DS may have missed out on a sixth form place becausr his school didn't do that.

My dd state school has done a LOT of tests starting y7 and building up. She was given target grade for Options in y9; then an updated target grade end of summer after end of ks3 tests.

In y10: smaller tests in Autumn now getting a more detailed grade prediction for each subject. Then formal exams using real gcse questions “halfway”after Easter y1 - again, given a grade at gcse level.

Summer exams in y10 also graded.

Then two sets of PPEs in y11, graded.

So if dd flunked in the second ppe her school would not trash her grade prediction!

My point being - your ds school is being very harsh; the teachers should be able to be reasonable AND should tell you before sending out low grade predictions

Neither of my children's schools (one private, one state) provided predicted grades. We entered them ourselves on application forms based on what they had been given on their last report.

The private school did give a reference but she was at a specialist dance school and applying for other specialist dance colleges. No academic references were sought.

We also entered the predicted grades ourselves but I assumed that these were confirmed by the school when they provided a reference? Is this not the case? And don't all schools request references?

Predicted grades were calculated by mock grades for my eldest (and we’re pretty accurate). Diff school have calculated middle child’s the same - by mock grades. I doubt real grades usually go up as much as you think unless there’s an awful lot of tutoring/cramming before the exams.

I am not making any excuses, I am explaining why he didn't achieve as well in the mocks as he might do in the real exams. Lots of kids do very little work for mocks. It's well documented.

But he doesn't have Maths at a grade 7 yet. He has a mock result at a grade 6 which, according to him, went badly and he messed up, as did quite a few other kids. He could stay at a grade 6 or jump 2 grades, or drop 1 grades. I know plenty of kids who jumped 2 grades between mocks and the real thing.

You must be on a different planet to me. Mostly 7 and 8s for mocks is a pretty stellar set of results so no setting of expectations is needed thank you, apart from perhaps your own?

No, they don't. The state college ds applied to didn't ask for any references. The state 6th form didn't either.

Dd applied to a mixture of private schools and colleges. I can't check the school (as we dodged a bullet because it closed suddenly) but she was applying for a performing arts scholarship so had to provide a reference for that, I can't remember if there was a general behaviour etc reference required too. This school did also provide academic scholarships but dd didn't apply as you were only allowed to apply for one type of scholarship.

Incidentally in terms of predicted grades. Dd's science teacher used a very harsh mark scheme for one of the sciences and she was predicted a Grade 4 (consider that all her other predictions were Grades 7-9) Most of her classmates failed the mock.

In the real thing she got a 7 for Biology and an 8 for Physics & Chemistry

Well, I can only speak from experience but DS1's grades jumped up by at least 2 grades between mocks and final, and 4 in the case of French (from a 5 to a 9). DSD was predicted a mix of 6s and 7s and got all 9s apart from one and I know of several other similar cases. The school never told us what grades they would use nor what their policy is on using mock grades as predicted grades. If DS "only" for a 7 in Maths GCSE then we may re-think Maths A-level, however, the immediate issue is that the entry requirement on the course is a grade 7 (not an 8 or a 9) as the school are using his mock grade with no uplift.

Maths is sort of an exception to the rule. For A level maths a Grade 7 is absolute minimum, some schools will allow students with a 6 but data shows outcomes are generally poor. A Grade 8 is more of a basis for sucess.

But in general I agree that mostly 7s and 8's for mocks is very good.

Thank you! I remember being told this before when DS1 failed a lot of his mocks as he did no work and then ended up coming out with some fairly decent results. Seems obvious to me that results will jump by at least 1-2 given the weeks of revisions before the real thing. A decent chunk of kids will not do any or minimal revision for the mocks which obviously shows in the results.

Have you tried talking to the sixth form college?

There’s no way someone should do a maths alevel if they got a 6 in any paper, revision or not. The kids doing maths alevel fly through gcse as if it’s 1+1. 7 isn’t really good enough either.

Not sure I'm afraid.

Meant to say, not true!

Are you sure the lack of offer is due to predicted grades and not catchment?

We didn't supply any predicted grades or references to college.

They had a 5 min chat with DS in the library at an open evening, and they said he was on the list, they would arrange enrollment after results.

Can he not just reapply, grades in hand, in August?

@Summertimemadness2026 you’re coming across as quite aggressive to people with experience who are trying to give you their knowledge and understanding about the rigours of the courses at A level.

Of course 7s and 8s are good grades, 6 is a good grade, but not sufficient for many colleges to accept it as a grade for A level maths. You said in your opening post that your DS didn’t do much revision for the mocks. If he does really well in the summer exams, he’ll have a good chance of the college place he wants. It’s worth him working really hard to get the grades he’s capable of.