GCSE predicted grades

[Summertimemadness2026]

Curious as to how most schools calculate the predicted grades they provide to sixth forms. DS is at an independent school who have said they don't give predicted grades, only their best mock grades. This has meant that DS has not go an offer at one of our preferred sixth forms. It doesn't seem fair to give mock grades as predicted grades as most grades typically go up by at least 1-2 grades, especially in my DS's case as he didn't do that much revision for his mocks. He got a mix of 7s & 8s but annoying got two 6s in the subjects he wants to study for A-level (the whole cohort found the papers tough and messed up to some extent) and he needs a 7 for one of them (maths) so didn't get on his course. In the real thing, I am sure he will get at least a 7 so seems unfair to use his mock grade.

So it's pretty much a gamble with a 7 at GCSE to proceed to A level if it's 50/50 (and the highest percentage are ending up with a D). 6 at GCSE is pretty much a cut off point as you're most likely to
end up with an E.

Going from modular to linear exams was a big change in itself.

I was told this on mn re dd getting 7s in science and how she’d struggle with biology and chemistry at ALevel - she’s now year 13 and about to take exams with AAB predictions (her mock biology was 3 marks off an A*). Don’t get me wrong, she’s put the work in, but on mn a gcse 6 is a fail.

Sorry not ignoring you but haven't seen any analysis of last year's data yet. Like I said, I'm sure it will continue to show that those with stellar results at GCSE usually do well at A level.

But so many children change school post 16 and that can make a massive difference to their attainment. My kids' 6th form is a much better school than their secondary (both state school) and it's really showing in their results.

No problem at all, thanks for the follow up! :)
I was mostly surprised to see that those with gcse 7 which is A in old money were most likely to end up with C or below - C is technically a pass but far from stellar. This discrepancy is even more surprising in a very structured and formulaic subject.

A 7 is a strong grade but there are two GCSE grades above it - so to lead to a middling A level grade is perhaps not astonishing. I think some of us (me!) are thinking of when an A was the highest GCSE or O level grade.

DD got A in GCSE physics but would have struggled at A level.

Btw C is absolutely an A level pass. So are grades D and E. Nothing doubtful (as “technically” implies) about a C being a pass.

Maths A Level is usually taken by those who intend to do maths or other STEM at uni.
C at A level is a fail in this context, to be frank.
DS studied maths at uni and even with an A it was not easy at all. I would certainly not recommend doing it with a C.

Yes I imagine a maths degree is challenging unless you are a real maths whizz, which if you get a C at A level you are not.

A grade C at A level is not a fail in any way though. That’s the point I was making tbh.

Maths is I believe the most popular A level so I doubt if everyone taking it is heading for a maths degree. I know several YP who took it with hums subjects.

A ‘C’ is not a fail. I link below a BEng course at Coventry with entry grades BBC. There are others. Not everyone is destined for Oxbridge or Imperial. A ‘C’ can open doors to courses that lead to career options. Yes MEng courses and higher ranked unis open up more, but not everyone is an A grade student. MN gives a false impression that most people get As and sometimes implies lower grades equate to failure. They don’t.

https://www.coventry.ac.uk/course-structure/ug/eec/electrical-and-electronic-engineering-beng/?term=2026-27

I never said everyone who's taking Maths A level is heading for a maths degree.
I said STEM.
Here is a pre-covid distribution of most popular subject combinations https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2021/03/what-are-the-most-popular-subject-combinations-at-a-level/
It's common knowledge you would ideally need maths heading for sciences (and Bio/Chem/Maths combination is most likely heading for Medicine).
Most popular subjects fluctuate depending on the current hype and the gov agenda in HE ("Fatima's next job is in cyber, she just doesn't know it yet"), it's now AI but it will change too as AI bubble is heading for a burst.

I wasn't interested in debates on the value of grades - I think anyone should be free to make their own mistakes.

I was just mildly interested in the statistical discrepancy between GCSE and A level grades. A Levels have always been a big jump so dropping a grade was kind of expected but dropping two or more grades looks like even more inconsistency in the system that's been rotten for ages.

My DC is not going to do A Level Maths so it's all purely observational for me.

It doesn't matter whatsoever which grades other people are getting, the only thing that matters is your own grades in the context of your own goals. In this respect, A A A can be a fail too if you need three stars for your target course.

People taking A Level Maths usually plan to apply for competitive courses. They usually need competitive grades.

Former polys are facing closures now, iirc roughly 50 HE organisations are in financial trouble, no idea if Coventry is on the list but there will be restructuring of this market for sure, especially at its lower end, but even Cambridge tried to close its vet department so no one is immune.

@Ubertomusic I totally agree - students differ in aptitudes and have different target grades. Some students have an A star as a realistic target others a C. However, a ‘C’ is not a fail. Some students will have higher targets and would be disappointed with a C grade. For other students it is an achievement and enables them to access their next steps be it an apprenticeship or degree course. Here is another course with BBC entry requirements - nursing at Liverpool. A course with excellent job prospects and vital to society.

https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/courses/nursing-bn-hons

Another BBC option - Quantity Surveying at LJMU. I highlight these courses, because many students don’t achieve straight As. There are options that they can consider.

https://www.ljmu.ac.uk/study/courses/undergraduates/2026/30847-quantity-surveying-bsc-hons#EntryRequirements

Also maths is the most popular A level. Some people taking it are targeting highly selective courses. Others are targeting courses that have lower tariffs. Students need to be realistic about their likely grade and consider if maths is a good fit for them. Another subject might be a better option. It really depends what you are aspiring to do next. Young people need to consider what is needed for the courses they are considering in terms of both subject and grade requirements.

Actually @Ubertomusic you said Maths A Level is usually taken by those who intend to do maths or other STEM at uni. – so we are both right, maths and Stem. But as I said, I know a number of YP who took maths A level intending to study history or sociology or a non-Stem subject. And while maths is for sure helpful for a Stem degree, it is certainly not essential. Again I know a number of YP who did science at uni with bio/chem/physics or a different third option that was not maths. Plenty of great unis will accept you for (for example) biology with just that one science (maybe at a higher grade).

But I agree with @Owlbookend that while one student may have high aspirations, another may have lower ones – and for them, a C may be the grade they need. Not to say they will never do well in the future. Plenty of valuable courses at unis are open to them.

Someone hoping for Astar would probably be disappointed with an A or a B – but those grades are not fails. I am just flagging the terminology is all. A grade E is still an A level pass and may still have value for the next stage (I was offered EE for two of my degree choices! I know obvs they only did that bc they thought I would do better).

I would also take issue with this People taking A Level Maths usually plan to apply for competitive courses. They usually need competitive grades. – Yes, it’s best not to take A level maths with a grade 6 at GCSE, but I am sure there are students whose best grade would be a C or B. They have not failed A level maths.