GCSE predicted grades

[Summertimemadness2026]

Curious as to how most schools calculate the predicted grades they provide to sixth forms. DS is at an independent school who have said they don't give predicted grades, only their best mock grades. This has meant that DS has not go an offer at one of our preferred sixth forms. It doesn't seem fair to give mock grades as predicted grades as most grades typically go up by at least 1-2 grades, especially in my DS's case as he didn't do that much revision for his mocks. He got a mix of 7s & 8s but annoying got two 6s in the subjects he wants to study for A-level (the whole cohort found the papers tough and messed up to some extent) and he needs a 7 for one of them (maths) so didn't get on his course. In the real thing, I am sure he will get at least a 7 so seems unfair to use his mock grade.

Agree with the point above. Sixth forms don’t know your son. They don’t know if he has studied or not, is capable or not so have based it on what they have. He hasn’t performed highly enough. Lots of kids have and they got in.

Independent schools don’t always follow the same curriculum and have been accused of inflating grades. Predictive grades in schools are based on robust testing - if your Independant doesn't do that they can’t give like for like to state.

I’n surprised you don’t know this and want your kid to do to state sixth form and expect it to be the same at both schools.

Top performing sixth forms are based on merit and have fierce completion and often exceed private sixth forms. You can’t pay for that.

I am coming across aggressive because I am not asking about nor do I need advice on the rigours of A-levels or the pros and cons of A-level Maths. I asked a simple question about PREDICTED GRADES to which I have received some helpful responses but unfortunately a number of posts from people who don't read the initial question but are quick to jump in with unwanted advice on points I don't need advice on. Such a shame.

Where are you getting all this from about what I expect and what I don't expect? I asked a question about predicted grades and what they are based on.

You seem to have missed the point of the question which is this - is it normal practice to base predicted grades on mock results only with no uplift? Lots of school don't seem to do this. And his current school definitely doesn't over inflate grades and doesn't need to. Sounds like you have a chip on your shoulder against private schools.

How to work out predicted grades, they will be partly on mocks, but also on the trajectory they've shown over the past couple of years, there won't be a hard and fast rule. Mocks alone seem harsh; most schools will mark down a bit to keep kids working. You don't want them to become complacent.

The cynic in me thinks that the school gave low predicted grades because they want him to stay at the school for 6th form and get more £££ from the OP

Having said that poor results from mock exams are often the kick up the backside that the young person needs, and then they knuckle down to do some serious revision.

@Summertimemadness2026 if that is the case then your DS can increase his grades by working hard. Most colleges have students, who didn't initially apply, turning up to enrol on GCSE results day, so all is not lost,

Thank you and agree completely.

Yes, that's reassuring but not sure how likely it is.

I think DS's school doesn't have many leaving for external sixth forms which is why this issue hasn't come up before. I don't know why their policy is not to give predicted grades and to only use mock grades!

Dd1’s mocks were all over the place. Ended up with 7s for sciences and I was told here she’d struggle at A levels. She’s worked hard and the first term was bumpy but she just did A level mocks and was 3 marks off an A* in biology. While there are patterns, they are not helpful for guessing whether your individual dc will follow that pattern.

DS1's best friend "only" got a & in Maths GCSE and is on track for an A at A-level.

State school parent here. Yes, my child's school gave predicted grades. Offers were made from sixth forms based on that. But students did better than predicted in some exams and worse in others.

However OP, if your ds does better in his GCSE Maths than he did in the mock, then contact the sixth form college on results day. They will have loads of students who did not get their predicted/required grades and will almost certainly offer him a place at that point.

I agree with you that it's a little unfair to use mock results as predicted grades.

I think there is usually quite a lot of movement of places after the final results. Could it be that if your son does get the higher grades in the real exams then the sixth form will offer a place? That’s what happens around here.

Lots of kids do very little work for mocks. It's well documented.

Is it? Where? I only have my DC as a reference but they all did about the same work for mocks as they did for the actual GCSEs. When I taught in school the YP I taught usually got a GCSE grade pretty much in parity with their most recent mock. It doesn't look from your posts as tho you are basing this on much more than you older DC and friends’ DC?

most grades typically go up by at least 1-2 grades

Again, based on the DC you know, yours and others? This is not my personal experience. I think it's risky to make generalisations like this tbh. A jump from a grade 5 in the mock to a 9 in the exam in French (my subject) is extraordinary and suggests something was badly wrong with the mock marking, unless your DS missed out half a paper or something.

Sorry if some of this is not what you are interested in hearing – it's an interesting point which is why people have discussed.

To answer your initial question, when I taught in school we gave PGs based on mocks, class performance and general attitude and ability. I was usually about right. Sometimes a bit optimistic.

My own DC at a different school were given target grades and then mock grades. Not sure we ever got PGs – they applied to other schools but it wasn't an issue (non-selective state). They key thing tbh was what GCSE grades they actually achieved, and it was then that there was a bit of hustle for some.

Do you have some alternative options? If he is getting 7+ in all other subjects (yes, great grades!) in mocks without doing much work then would something else be better? A 6 in maths in Feb of year 11 does not bode well for A level tbh. As PPs say, A level maths is best suited, let us say, to the kind of student for whom GCSE maths is an easy win for an 8 or 9.

Yes I am sure there are students who gain a 6 or 7 and get an A at A level. There are probably YP who gain a 9 and then get a C in sixth form. But overall there is a clear parity from GCSE grade to A level grade in maths specifically.

Meant to add – hopefully you have other sixth form offers; for the one you have missed out on could you contact them with actual results in August? I would get in touch and ask them.

I broadly agree that grades tend to go up by one grade on average between mocks and the real exams. That's what happened to my DS and DD - not for every subject, but most.

Ive been to one so can have all the chip I like thank you.

OP your confrontational tone is enough.

Ours gave a current “working at” grade and a “forecast” grade. Working at grade was based on the mocks. Forecast grade can vary depending on teacher opinion - some are a little higher than the mocks and some lower (eg where he got 9’s in the mocks, some teachers have shifted forecast grade to an 8 as the mocks didn’t cover the entire curriculum, and it can mess with kids expectations to forecast a 9 and they’re then disappointed if they get an 8! ).

Looking back through older reports and for other child too - mostly the mocks results are v similar to the predicted grades. At most a difference of one grade.

What we are trying to help you see is that when it comes to the actual GCSE maths paper he may also end up with the same experience of the mocks and finding the "papers tough" and "mess" it up "to some extent." You say the whole cohort messed up, they didn't it is just his school's year 11 cohort and based on the maths they have been taught. They were given the grades as if they took that actual paper and were compared against the rest of the country who did take it.

The link I put above is from a well respected maths teacher who gives sound advice on here. Pearson (exam board) mapped students from their achieved GCSE to their actual A level grades covering all grades from 5-9. Of those who achieved GCSE grade 7, -

27.5% got a D at A level,
25.6% got a C,
15.4% got a B,
8.9% got an A
and only 1% got an A star.

My son's friend had to scramble on results day as they achieved a 6 in their higher maths paper and so could not continue with maths A level which had a requirement of a 7 but they were advised an 8 would be a better starting point. So as his parents were both working this child had to figure out what other course he wanted to do and not only that, what courses had spaces for him.

And of course 7s and 8s are incredible grades however the 6s are going to be the sticking point for the entry requirements for that particular sixth form.

Again, that link www.mumsnet.com/talk/secondary/4007205-How-maths-GCSE-result-predicts-A-level-maths-result-important-for-grade-6-7?

Most mock grades at this point in the day are accurate actually, what makes you think he's suddenly going to start working now if he hasn't yet?

The school are basing it on how he has performed in his mocks, perhaps if he had revised he would have got a better mark. Unfortunate but ultimately this is just a consequence of not doing the work when he should have.

Er, because the real exams actually count and the mocks don't. Could that be it? At the end of the day, your actual results matter not the predictions.

No, it's not. Read the post rather than passing judgment. Honestly, who are you to judge a 15 year old on ONE mock result? Insane! The question is, because you don't seem to understand, is IS it standard practice for a school to use mock results with no uplift? It seems a lot of school DO give an uplift to mocks results to DS has missed out because of his school policy. Not that big a deal as he can reapply with his actual results but that is the question.

Not answering the question. I don't need advice on whether he should study A-level Maths.

I find your judgemental tone enough as well. Go and judge and lecture someone else.

Do you think that you being a teacher yourself might mean that your DC do more revision than the average DC? I can assure you there are a lot of kids who don't do much or any revision for the mocks or even the real exams, borne out by national GCSE results where on average only 60% get 5 or more passes! Please stop being so blinkered. And yes, he has another offer from a high performing state sixth form and the one in question is not his first choice anyway (he's not keen on going to a super academic hot house) so it's really not the end of the world, nor have I presented it as such. I was simply asking about the process for predicting grades as it seems fairly arbitrary and inconsistent across schools which could in some cases put certain kids at a disadvantage although it should all even out on results day, just might mean more stress in between.

No they are not. If they are accurate then why bother taking the real thing? Why do I think he will start working now? Because I am witnessing it with my own eyes over the last few weeks/months and because they have finished most lessons and all lessons now are for revision. You're telling me 6-8 weeks of further revision at school and at home isn't going to make an impact?