How maths GCSE result predicts A-level maths result (important for grade 6/7!)

[noblegiraffe]

I couldn’t figure out a decent title for this thread but I know that a lot of students are advised to take A-level maths without it being made clear to them the lower the GCSE grade they have, the less likely they are to get good grades at A-level.

I think maths is the A-level that relies most on achievement at GCSE as it builds directly on the most difficult GCSE content.

Pearson have (very roughly) mapped their GCSE outcomes in 2017 to A-level outcomes in 2019 in the grid attached.

You can see from the mapping that students doing A-level with a grade 6 are most likely to get Ds and Es (and actually I would suspect that a lot of grade 6 students drop out before even taking the exam), and grade 7s are looking at Cs and Ds.

Obviously someone could work really hard, hit their stride and ace their A-level, or could peak at GCSE and struggle, but I think it’s worth having this info when deciding A-level choices.

This is really useful, thank you. Could you put a link to the source? I did a quick Google and couldn't find it, and as a teacher who helps kids make these decisions, it would be really useful to show them the data.

The Maths Emporium (an Edexcel account) tweeted the raw data and a maths teacher put it into the format I attached. Data here!:

twitter.com/drstonemaths/status/1296753174225846272?s=21

I think this is a very important point. I did my GCSEs in 2015 and know so many who struggled with A Level maths (even A/A* GCSE students - many got Cs and Ds at best). Someone I know got a 7 at GCSE maths In 2017 and an E at A level maths. All A levels are challenging but maths and science A Levels can be absolutely brutal.

Thanks for that @noblegiraffe. It's because you have mentioned this before that I knew DD shouldn't take A Level maths, even though at the time we thought she would get a 7. (she actually got given a 6)..

She is instead doing Core Maths which I think is much better suited for her to go alongside her A levels (that she can hopefully get As in)

My DD's boyfriend is doing A-Level Maths with a 6 (his lowest grade), but he wants to go into engineering, so he doesn't see he has much of a choice. I do fear for his A-Level grade. DD got an 8 and isn't doing it because she doesn't think she'd be able to get an A*, whereas she's much more likely to in subjects where she got a 9.

I think this is a good reminder @noblegiraffe

I know some schools are still doing the iGCSE rather than the GCSE and a higher proportion got A/A* compared to the reformed GCSE. Do you know what the chart might look like for iGCSE pupils?

@mynameisnotmichaelcaine My son is the same in that he really has no choice. Engineering here too. We know it is going to be very tough going for him. Makes me feel so nervous!

Interesting. Dd's school (comp) expects a 7 at least for Maths and 8 for further maths. Dd got 8 and is doing Maths. Friends of hers doing FM got 9. I double checked with dd's maths teachers she'd be suited to Maths A Level as I'd heard it was hard. Would be interesting to see the same for other subjects. I suspect French has similar outcomes to Maths. (Which dd is also taking)

That’s helpful. I think our 6th form you need a 7 or above to sit. My son is starting A level maths and further maths next week. Doing the whole A level and exam for maths in year 12, then further maths in year 13. He got a 9 for GCSE (always predicted a 9, not inflated) and I hope will be on track for good grade at A level. I think you need a high GCSE grade to do A level maths

I’m glad you’ve posted this. I (head of maths, assistant head) have had many difficult conversations with parents - and more often than not it is the parents rather that the pupils - who get very angry at the gentle and tactful suggestion that their offspring are perhaps not suited to A Level maths.

It’s difficult as you never want to close doors/show a lack of belief but if you get a 6 at GCSE maths (which grade boundaries show is normally just over half marks), you are probably going to sink at A Level. My school, like most I know, require a 7 but even that is pushing it in my experience although there is a difference between a 7 that was a struggle and a 7 which was the result of laziness/complacency/poor teaching.

And I should say that despite requiring a 7 I have had rank pulled on me and told to accept 6s against my better judgment due to the funding for maths places (my sixth form is not an oversubscribed one, bums on seats are crucial). Of course this resulted in one case, dropping out a few weeks in; in another, a huge amount of extra support, tutoring etc from the class teacher - and a U.

Thanks for this.

My ds is doing T level computing at college but has asked about doing a level maths too.

It would have to be personal study online course and he's also a swimmer so trains a lot!

He got a 7 in stats in he 10, 8 gcse maths and B in FSMQ.

So he'd most likely get B-A at al level.

So I guess best thing would be to encourage him to learn alone for fun and get him doing past papers. Then if he's able to do well it'll be worth the investment.

But as B-C is equally possible and maybe more so as online doing it for that grade imo isn't worth it.

That's an interesting set of data. Are people who achieved 8 most likely to take A-level maths? Dd achieved an 8 in 2019 so it's interesting what she gets in 2021.

Interesting. I am a bit worried about DS taking A Level maths. He can drop it after year 12 (his plan) - they choose 4, then drop 1. He got 8s in his mocks, but his CAG was a 7. But I don't want to be doom and gloom with him before he even starts!

I wonder what the chart is like for Further Maths? My friend’s son got GCSE 7 (this year and 7s all year, never 8) but wants to do both A level maths & further maths. Apparently the school has said yes. I was flabbergasted as only grade 9’s at my DC school do further maths & even then it’s flipping tough!!

That's really helpful!

@netflixismysidehustle looking at the chart 12,000 or so got grade 8’s the most common grade for taking to A level (looking at nobles chart)
@Heifer what’s ‘core maths’ please?

My DD has just noticed 80% of those who got 9’s at gcse got A/A at A level. There’s only 20% left for everyone else!! The difference between the A for grade 8 & 9 is huge!!

I know some schools are still doing the iGCSE rather than the GCSE and a higher proportion got A/A* compared to the reformed GCSE. Do you know what the chart might look like for iGCSE pupils?

I’ve never taught IGCSE but the cohort who does IGCSE is more likely to be at a selective independent school which would account for the higher grades. I’d imagine the A would look fairly similar to the spread for a 7 (on the old GCSE I taught A grade students who really struggled because what got them the A was being good at all the stuff except algebra).

Thank you @noblegiraffe. This is interesting, and at the same time not surprising, but must be very hard to teachers trying to gently suggest that maths is not the best option for some.

Our sixth form will only accept minimum 7s for maths A level and ideally want 8 or 9. And they also stress that you have to really love it to take it at A level - the 8/9 grade is no good if you don't have a real enthusiasm for the subject. On that basis alone maths would never have been an option for my DS1, despite getting grade 8 GCSE, because he doesn't really like maths - he finds it tedious and dull.

He has various friends doing A level maths but they are all very instinctive, highly able mathematicians who not only got the 8/9 GCSE grades but also absolutely LOVE maths too and have a genuine passion for it. I'm bracing myself for DS2 wanting to take A level maths when the time comes because he is far more of a passionate maths whizz than DS1 is, I just have to hope that his passion translate into decent grades!

DS1 got a 7 last year, but had several teachers for maths from year 10 including a librarian at one stage! His GCSE score put him mid way between a 7 and 8.
He's found it pretty hard, particularly so remote learning since March, and has been predicted a B. Only going back to college for two days a week too which is a big worry so considering a tutor for maths but not sure where to source a good one?
Any recommendations for agencies? Lancashire?

And I should say that despite requiring a 7 I have had rank pulled on me and told to accept 6s against my better judgment due to the funding for maths places

Yes, my department too. And then we are forced to put on so much extra support and the student goes on to do very poorly when it would have been far more in the student’s interests to direct them to another choice.

My kids go to a comp and for Further Maths it's grade 9 (grade 8 can take a test in early September to prove they can keep up with the grade 9s) and grade 7 (grade 6s can do a test to prove that they can keep up) for Maths.

@tryingmybest13

Interesting. I am a bit worried about DS taking A Level maths. He can drop it after year 12 (his plan) - they choose 4, then drop 1. He got 8s in his mocks, but his CAG was a 7. But I don't want to be doom and gloom with him before he even starts!

He’s in the best position. He could be one of those who goes on to do really well, but if he’s really struggling he has the option to drop it.

This is (IMO) one of the worst things about the scrapping of AS levels. Previously I would have encouraged anyone who got an A (7) to give A-level maths a go because they could always drop it if it wasn’t for them. Now I have to be far more cautious and consider discouraging pupils from taking it as they could end up stuck on an unsuitable course for two years, even though they could have ended up doing ok in the end.

Thanks @noblegiraffe They will still take the AS (though of course they do not count). We will see how it goes!.