Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector

[suk44]

I was reading an article in the Guardian today about the pressure some independent schools are under in the current situation, and how the ongoing uncertainty could hit the viability of some of them. Regardless of whether someone would be happy or unhappy with it, i''m thinking it is quite likely the sector is heading for a hugely difficult couple of years (like many other sectors of course) and especially since this isn't an issue that will be fully resolved anytime soon.

I understand some private schools were hanging on by their fingernails financially even before this crisis due to the huge increase in pension contributions, and now you have to add in the potential pressure from some parents for partially refunded fees for next term, international boarders having to fly home, and predictions of a deep recession (and therefore fewer that could afford to send their children to fee paying schools).

I'm wondering if we will end up seeing a greater number of such schools merging, closing or converting to state schools that we saw even after the 2008 recession, affecting even some big names?

Interesting. Which were the big names in 2008? I thought everyone was expecting this to be short term, but I guess it will take time to recover.

I think it is going to be very hard for the private sector. I agree some schools will end up closing.

I also think it will mean less bursaries which is very sad. Personally I would rather schools stopped giving scholarships with monetary value and instead concentrated on bursaries.

I think your predictions are about right, op.

I think the very very rich will be less affected and so the big names, Eton, Marlborough and the like will still be there in a few years. The cheaper ‘independent’ (why do we call them that instead of private?) schools where parents are scraping to afford fees will be those in trouble I think.

@Whyisthisnoteasy
I meant big name schools this time, rather than last time.

I think some schools in the sector which survived the last downturn then starting struggling financially with the cost of pension increases, and all of what is happening now will be another body blow. As another poster mentioned, there will always be some schools who will be able to weather the storm, but I suspect in quite a lot of others there will be some worried bursars even now trying to look at how significant amounts of money can be saved. I wouldn't be surprised if in the relatively near future in such places you notice a subject or two being cut or bigger class sizes.

I agree, and it will be particularly hard on those who can't afford to go back in September as state school places are already either allocated or about to be. Lots of people who privately educated have bought their houses with mind to being close to good state schools as they weren't planning on using them. They will find it very hard to be told that the only school place available is at a failing school quite far away.

Sorry typo - "with no mind to..."

Yes it's very sad, even if you don't believe in private schools, it will undoubtedly put pressure on the state system if some of them close. Such a worrying time for everyone.

The cheaper ‘independent’ (why do we call them that instead of private?) schools

Independent is probably more accurate than private. They are independently funded rather than state funded. They aren't private insofar as anyone (theoretically) can go there.

Healthcare is always private and never independent though.

I think there will only be pressure on the state in a few places, the SE obviously is one. Not sure about elsewhere - the city I went to private school in actually had children traveling in from a vast area to do so, so would probably disperse back to those areas to the state schools so only a rather small increase in each area rather than a large increase in the area the school was located (does that make sense? No coffee yet!). And where I live now there are only 3 private schools in the whole district, around 100 children in each year across them all, again a wide geographical area & a large number of overseas students. So I can’t imagine a huge pressure on state schools were they to fail. (Only 1 of them will be at risk I think)

It's also the case that a lot of the middle-ranking boarding schools are kept afloat by foreign students, often Chinese. If this market collapses, the schools will really struggle and some will fold.

I think people used the word independent as it’s one word, rather than private or public.

It's also the case that a lot of the middle-ranking boarding schools are kept afloat by foreign students, often Chinese
Yes, can think of a few schools that have been very successful in recruiting foreign students, and pretty much rely on them, however these schools with a relatively large proportion of international students could now end up very financially exposed even in the short term.

Round here a couple of the prep schools have really been struggling with numbers any way.

One class per year instead of two for reception and year one as they just didn't have the numbers.

Another school has had to make staff redundant and lost a class in some of the year groups. My friend worked there and said financially the school was really struggling anyway.

I can see that schools such as these could quite easily close and there will be definitely be an influx of local students needing places.

Yes the boarding schools would need deep pockets to stop receiving boarding fees atm.

I have dc in independent special schools and a family member in a church independent school and I am a teacher myself. The quality of the work set by the three schools for the children during this period is pathetic and the staff have disappeared.

In contrast, colleagues in state schools are still working on a rota basis and online all day from home teaching and monitoring pupils’ work. You do not get what you pay for.

Hi, we're moving this thread over to our Secondary Education topic, at the OP's request.

I think it will be the death knell for the few remaining boarding preps and it will put pressure on many of the boarding secondaries that depend on overseas students at least for the next year or so. Those currently operating on a knife edge will go under.

The successful schools will be those that adapt their business model to the new circumstances as successful schools have done for centuries. The schools of 2020 are very different from those of 1950, 1980 and 2000 even though they have kept the same names. That might mean an increase in day students, lower fees and less emphasis on deluxe facilities for the off spring of the global elite.

Like all businesses a lot will depend on overheads. Are very old schools in a better position? In terms of what they own.

@MarshaBradyo a few of the famous big name schools will also have matching big assets which I guess they may be able to sell off if the chips are down. But let's be realistic this is only a relatively small number.
I think many would be surprised how much even well known schools struggle financially in good times and even if only 10% of your pupils are from outside of the UK that still quite a lot of money, lets say you are a school of 700 10% form outside of the UK with fees of at least 45K that's over £3million down in one school year and many schools will have a lot more than that.The other problem for boardings schools is if we lift lockdown say June July and then impose it again in September or if parents are not totally convinced that we've got on top of it and opt not to send their children back in Sept.

Happy yes good points

Just a few months ago private schools were probably breathing a big sigh of relief after the election result, since Labour had manifesto proposals more detrimental to fee paying schools. Now just a few months later they are facing what could probably be a much bigger threat to their viability.

Yes agree with all, preps, boarding preps and boarding reliant on oversees will be hit hard. Scholarship pots will be non-existent as funds diverted to keep current pupils at the school. Also the differences you pay for in private - small class sizes, specialist music, MFL and PE teachers in KS1 and KS2 will all be hit. The quickest way for a school to increase funds is to increase class size and cut teaching wage bill.

I'm on the fence here.

On the one hand, the secondary schools I know that are doing the most remotely - online classes via zoom, morning registers, even virtual assemblies - are independent schools. They've put their non-teaching staff on furlough and some are giving discounts on fees. But teachers are online, available and definitely working hard. It's like they've decided to give a great service so parents are happy to pay.

The state secondaries are not trying to be an online school and are instead setting some self-guided work to keep up the knowledge the children already have. There is no online interaction (no lessons, taking registers etc.) and no follow-up if the work isn't done. Parents accept it as they know many are keeping schools open for key workers or juggling their own childcare issues.

Overall, I think this could see the resurgence in independent schools that embrace home schooling at secondary school level. I also suspect we'll see the attainment gap that has been narrowing between both sectors widen again as a result of the virus.

At primary school level - where children need to be guided and supervised - it's much less compelling and I think preps may struggle in the short term.