Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector

[suk44]

I was reading an article in the Guardian today about the pressure some independent schools are under in the current situation, and how the ongoing uncertainty could hit the viability of some of them. Regardless of whether someone would be happy or unhappy with it, i''m thinking it is quite likely the sector is heading for a hugely difficult couple of years (like many other sectors of course) and especially since this isn't an issue that will be fully resolved anytime soon.

I understand some private schools were hanging on by their fingernails financially even before this crisis due to the huge increase in pension contributions, and now you have to add in the potential pressure from some parents for partially refunded fees for next term, international boarders having to fly home, and predictions of a deep recession (and therefore fewer that could afford to send their children to fee paying schools).

I'm wondering if we will end up seeing a greater number of such schools merging, closing or converting to state schools that we saw even after the 2008 recession, affecting even some big names?

The prep school ds is at has had some boarders in all the way through this, I think they were weekly boarders. The year 6s are now obviously back including year 6 boarders. But of course that's manageable when its not all the boarders. Quite how they are going to manage in September I have no idea! They also usually have quite a few international boarders so I suppose they might not be back. But I know they often have 4 or 5 to a bedroom.

I don't know any of the schools that have announced their closure personally, but I noticed from googling that both Ashdown House and Minster School had Heads that only started last September.

One would assume the new heads were aware of the financial position. Often their remit will be to increase numbers!

Never assume former pupils are minted and will throw collective millions £ at a failing school. Harrow and Eton have ultra deep pockets, smaller, not so ancient and less prestigious schools do not. They have a more hand to mouth existence where fees are the main income and rich alumni are not the norm. Even if you have rich alumni, you have to persuade them to give to a failing institution and that’s not easy!

1 in 10 private schools leaves Teachers' Pension Scheme

EXCLUSIVE: A total of 149 private schools have given notice of leaving the TPS – with fears that more will follow suit later in the year
www.tes.com/news/coronavirus-private-schools-leaving-teachers-pension-scheme-54

The number of private schools that have formally given notice to leave the Teachers' Pension Scheme has risen by 54 per cent since November 2019.

In January, Tes revealed that 97 independent schools had been given notice to leave according to a November 2019 freedom of information disclosure obtained by the NEU teaching union.

However, a new FoI request carried out by the NEU last month found that as of 22 May this year, 149 schools had requested to leave.

The news comes as senior figures in the independent sector fear for its future, with some suggesting that 30 per cent of schools could go bust because of the coronavirus outbreak.

The 149 private schools that signalled they will leave have now left represent 13 per cent of the 1,171 independent schools that were in the TPS in November.

I think that's a very significant figure, and has increased quickly in a fairly short time, and affects some fairly well known schools. Looks like the effects of the covid crisis could not have come at a worst time when so many private schools could not even afford to stay in the TPS.

Effzeh Really interesting is that it's the fall in tourist income at York Minster that has been the final straw at Minster School.
www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/education/yorks-minster-school-set-close-after-minster-suffers-catastrophic-loss-income-during-lockdown-2873687

Sprouts - presumably the school was making a loss anyway but the Minster were funding it from their tourist income because of the choral side of things, and maybe just because that's how it had traditionally been. And then the bottom falls out of their tourism income, and faced with a massive black hole in their finances they decide to pull the plug on the school.

As the phrase has it, when the tide goes out, you see who's been swimming naked.

There does seem to be a lack of understanding about state school admissions on here. I'm a bit tired and no expert, but living in catchment does not mean a school has to take a child.

Each school will have a PAN, the total number they accept per year. They can go above this if the total in school is below a certain level. Early years are also capped. It is notoriously difficult to get a school place above PAN.

An in year admission is difficult. Possible if the school has a place.

If my dc were private, and I had concerns about income or school viability, I would be getting on every waiting list I could. Last on the list does not mean last for a place. Depends on the schools over subscription criteria.

My understanding is yes a school place has to be found for your child (there are rare cases when this doesn't happen). You can express a preference, but the place offered will depend on what is available.

But if your school is failing and you wish to move within the private sector then I am sure there will be quite a few other independent schools willing to welcome you with open arms.

Yes. Other private schools are available.

The comment was more aimed at posters who either expected a state school place on request or were unsure of the process.

If I was an independent school parent, I would not be availing myself of the fees in advance scheme.

But the problem about getting on waiting lists is the timing. If you join a few lists and a place at a reasonable school is offered to you, you generally have to accept it and enroll pretty much straight away (you do around here, anyway). So that's great if you're actively looking to leave your independent regardless, but not terribly helpful if you're only going to move if your independent school goes under - because you don't know whether that's going to happen yet. And as you say, state school waiting list places are allocated according to admissions criteria, not how long you've been on the list, so if you're not in a position to accept a place until a possible time in the future, then there's no advantage to getting on the list now.

haveyouseenmyhorcrux you don't have to take a school place if offered. If you turn it down, I assume it goes to the next on the list. Am not sure if your child would stay on the list or not. You would need to ask.

Am sure it is a difficult situation to be in. Covid is stressful for all sorts of reasons.

Not all areas have state schools that are full. Plenty of areas do though. So a school collapsing can be a major problem if parents want state. Possibly less of an issue if they want private.

Oh no, you don't have to take the place offered, and yes you can stay on the list. My point was just that if you're not yet in a position to accept a place, then there's no advantage in being on the list.

I think some of the private international schools are headed for big trouble unless they have assets, which a lot do. Our school is still pouring money into non essential maintenance. I hope they have the future in their radar.

Mind you they are offering proper online lessons unlike state. So if there is no return to school in September then for some independent school becomes even more appealing

Mind you they are offering proper online lessons unlike state.
This was debated earlier in the thread. There are many state schools offering excellent provision online.

So if there is no return to school in September then for some independent school becomes even more appealing.
As I mentioned earlier in the thread the threat posed to independent schools isn't going to recede because of this alone. No matter how brilliant the education a lot of private schools may offer, no matter how good they might be, not as many people will ultimately be able to afford the fees going forward, either now or over the next year when the economy tips into potentially the deepest recession in 300 years.

@legoandlol Actually State schools for the most part are following the most up to date educational research in their approach. Zoom lessons are great childcare but not a great educational tool. Lovely for a sense of community but not as good as well thought out asynchrous teaching. Also many private teachers are hating it and receiving grotty emails from parents critical of their lessons which they are monitoring! Some amazing teachers in state schools delivering really up to date education at the moment. ...but it relies on a level of independence and resilience which is where some children are finding it hard. Those that are enjoying it will be really well set up for exam preparation and university as well as work place in the future. Before you chuck out ill researched stereotyoes have a read of this (and have a look at the most up to date UK research from the last 3 months on eg teachertapp) mobile.edweek.org/c.jsp?cid=25920011&item=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.edweek.org%2Fv1%2Fblog%2F63%2Findex.html%3Fuuid%3D80398

30 private schools preparing to close due to Covid-19

Parents struggling to pay their children's' fees is contributing the financial collapse of many schools

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/06/30-private-schools-preparing-close-due-covid-19/

As many as 30 British private schools are preparing to close due to the coronavirus pandemic, The Sunday Telegraph has learned, with parents struggling to pay fees contributing to their collapse.

Most schools “haven’t got deep pockets” and the current crisis has pushed dozens of institutions over the edge, according to Neil Roskilly, chief executive of the Independent Schools Association.

Nine private schools have already formally announced that they intend to shut down, but Mr Roskilly said that there are around 30 overall which are in a similar position.

“It is very worrying for the pupils and their families,” he said. “Some will resurrect themselves. Sometimes they go into administration then they will be bought up and reopened under different leadership.”

Mr Roskilly explained that the impact of parents being unable to pay fees will be a “significant” blow to schools’ finances.

This week the Minster School in York, a preparatory school which provides choristers for the city's cathedral and can trace its origins back to the seventh century, announced that it will close due to a cash shortfall caused by the Covid-19 crisis.

Boris Johnson’s former prep school, Ashdown House Preparatory School in Sussex , also informed parents that it will shut down after 180 years due to the “harsh reality” of coronavirus which has prompted a sharp fall in demand for places.

Of the schools which have so far announced their closure, half are preparatory schools and so far three have specifically cited parents’ inability to continue paying fees as a factor in their decision to shut down.

York Minster’s Dean, the Right Rev Dr Jonathan Frost, said that the Chapter of York was no longer able to keep up its investment in the school adding that in recent months “a number of families indicated they would be unable to keep their children at the Minster School.”

Moreton Hall, a prep school in Suffolk which charges £24,000-a-year for boarders, explained its reasons for closure included the fact that many parents “now find themselves in difficult financial straits” as well as loss of income from summer camps and demand for overseas boarding drying up.

Bramdean School in Exeter, another school to have closed in recent months told parents that it would be unable to “weather this storm”, adding that they had been receiving “daily requests” for fee remissions.

Stephen Spriggs, managing director at William Clarence Education which assists some of the country’s leading public schools with recruitment, said that families falling into financial difficulties and pulling their children out is a real concern.

“Preparatory schools have a lower head count which then means if they have a drop off in pupil numbers they lose out more because of the fees,” he said.

“The biggest problem for schools is looking forward into next year. What kind of boarding offer can they really offer? If the international students don’t turn up in September and British families pull their children out, you can’t make the same forecasts.”

Lots of prep schools are too small. They need to join together and get economies of scale. The days of the little prep are numbered I think.

St Mary’s Shaftesbury.

Along with Ashdown House, showing that even long-established traditional schools with a strong reputation are not going to be spared from this meltdown.

The school we are joining in September, has had no places dropped for year 7, and boarding houses will be open in the summer. The prep we are leaving, is having a boom time with enquiries from parents wanting to move from state. A friend of ours is HT of a well known senior girls school in the area, and they’ve not lost a single pupil and are currently full. Many enquiries for additional places they can’t offer. It does depend on the area of course. We are Home Counties.

With the constant bad news regarding the economy, likely skyrocketing unemployment, foreign students being put off coming here, plus the continuing extreme financial pressure of increased teacher pensions contributions, I still think it's very likely we'll unfortunately see some big names fall over the next 12 months, if not 6 months.

The preps around us are full to bursting now, with two that I know putting on an extra Reception class to meet demand. We were in the final stages of choosing one for Sept and thought we'd have more time to think, but were given strict deadlines by them all. Swings and roundabouts I guess.

We are moving three from state to independent and have found a mixture of full and expanding schools - none are saying they have lost too many kids. I actually think for DD who is going into the 11+ process this year it is going to be even more competitive. I’m in a grammar school Area and a lot of state parents are talking about independent rather than state. The gramma school offer during covid has been dreadful by all accounts while private schools locally have really pushed all they have done. It’s turned us (we were wavering) into definite!

It's great for those individual schools mentioned who on the surface appear to be doing ok for now, but I think the most telling thing has been the articles linked to in this thread which have direct on the record quotes from named independent school heads and representatives of private school associations who make more than subtle suggestions to how bad the situation will be for many fee paying schools. Considering they're employed to put a positive spin on things you'd assume they wouldn't paint such a bleak picture unless they had a lot of information to go on.

I have many close family and friends who teach in private schools, and I've heard that it's likely in some of their schools that class sizes will be increasing, teachers will have less non-contact time, and more people teaching outside their subject specialism. So whilst a school may stay open and even in some cases have relatively healthy numbers, it doesn't mean what is on offer will be what it did before it terms of advantages over state schools.

Another separate issue is that many more private schools are leaving (or rather having to leave as they can't afford it) the Teachers' Pension Scheme, so even those that have managed to stay open will have only done so because they took this significant step. Significant because they know they'll find it much harder to attract and retain the very best staff.