Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector

[suk44]

I was reading an article in the Guardian today about the pressure some independent schools are under in the current situation, and how the ongoing uncertainty could hit the viability of some of them. Regardless of whether someone would be happy or unhappy with it, i''m thinking it is quite likely the sector is heading for a hugely difficult couple of years (like many other sectors of course) and especially since this isn't an issue that will be fully resolved anytime soon.

I understand some private schools were hanging on by their fingernails financially even before this crisis due to the huge increase in pension contributions, and now you have to add in the potential pressure from some parents for partially refunded fees for next term, international boarders having to fly home, and predictions of a deep recession (and therefore fewer that could afford to send their children to fee paying schools).

I'm wondering if we will end up seeing a greater number of such schools merging, closing or converting to state schools that we saw even after the 2008 recession, affecting even some big names?

That's very true @Appuskidu. Sorry I was only really thinking Year 7s. I hadn't really thought that the whole state education system (and it would be worse in London because a much higher % of DC are educated in the private sector there) could find itself on its knees because of the extra demand.

@NOTANUM sorry, no idea how that happened. I'll try again. www.meathchronicle.ie/news/roundup/articles/2020/03/25/4187815-headfort-school-to-close-permanently-as-a-result-of-coronavirus-crisis/

Our school has come under huge pressure to reduce fees despite the fact that their costs haven’t reduced much, if at all. Initially they were saying if anyone was struggling with fees to please get in touch and they had the ability to help. But I know that plenty of parents who do need help were not approaching the school because of ‘pride’ and said they ‘would rather a blanket reduction was given to everyone’.

Other people can still afford the fees but were cross with the school because ‘they’re not providing the service we’re paying for’. As if this is the school’s fault.

The school isn’t especially well off, is one of several run by the same charity, and doesn’t have big funds available like some do.

But under pressure they’ve agreed to a 20% reduction, and have said if families don’t feel they need it, to contact the bursar and say so. I want the school to still be there when this is over so we won’t be accepting the reduction as we can afford it. I would rather the money was given to the families who really need it most rather than spent on a blanket reduction.

Where BertrandRussell? She normally contributes to education threads but I haven’t seen her around for ages.

Where’s not where

The whole concept of charitable status when applied to private schools is quite baffling to me. What are they actually providing that can be deemed as charitable? genuine question.

Our school has sent out quite a sanctimonious letter talking about themselves as a charity but when you break it down it actually starts to seem morally wrong to claim this position.

Can anyone explain this?

Thank you @rivierliedje
Interesting article as I know Ireland doesn't have the same history of prep schools as the UK.

The most sought after state school will suddenly see students attending who pre-COVID-19 would have gone to private schools

Unless the pupils concerned are currently in the reception or yr6 - yr7 transfer system (or other point of entry where relevant locally) and holding a place there already, the most likely scenario is that however highly ranked they may be against the school's admissions criteria, a place at their local sought after state school will depend upon being successful at appeal.

Given the possible numbers involved, some indies being allowed or even encouraged to convert to state schools may be the best (least worst?) solution, ignoring the political complexion of the person quoted in the TES article.

Or maybe if LEA cannot provide a school place could pay discounted fee to keep the child in the indie, rather than having to find places suddenly for 800+ children all at once.

Or LEA could pay the teachers salaries in the indie for a fixed period?

@Stellamboscha THat is how it works in Ireland for secondary schools. PRobably why the fees are so much lower here (here is a list www.irishtimes.com/news/education/the-rise-of-private-schools-there-s-a-lot-more-money-around-1.3338945)
I wonder if that will help these schools weather the storm more, as the expense is not so huge for parents.

Or maybe if LEA cannot provide a school place could pay discounted fee to keep the child in the indie, rather than having to find places suddenly for 800+ children all at once

Not a bad idea.

Or maybe if LEA cannot provide a school place could pay discounted fee to keep the child in the indie, rather than having to find places suddenly for 800+ children all at once. It's a good idea but I'm pretty sure you'd then get some people with DC in state schools complaining that it's not fair!

I think the likelihood of the government subsidising the fees for pupils at a private school that is at risk of going bust is zero. It would be political suicide, especially at a time when so many will be losing their jobs and after a long period of state schools being starved of cash.

If worst came to worst then I think it's much more likely such schools would be converted into a free school, and then would of course be open for all to apply for a place and wouldn't be depended on paying fees. Even then it would probably only get permission if it was an area with few spare places at existing state schools.

Or maybe if LEA cannot provide a school place could pay discounted fee to keep the child in the indie

I think the chances of that happening are at zero.

If worst came to worst then I think it's much more likely such schools would be converted into a free school that would cost far far more

But what about for September surely this won't be sorted out by then?

that would cost far far more

Yes in the short term, but if the government knows the state will have to educate most of them then they would've had to increase long term capacity in local schools anyway so the cost wouldn't be that different overall.

As I say it would be political suicide for the government to start paying fees for parents who can't afford it anymore or to private schools to stop them going bust - this would be the case even during normal times, never mind when the economy is going into freefall and unemployment significantly rising. They already will have a gigantic debt to pay back form all the schemes trying to keep people in their jobs.

Anyone who is pinning their hopes on this happening is going to end up very disappointed!

And given the government were not willing to do this during the last recession, when a not insignificant number of schools that had to close, merge or convert - I'm not sure why it would now?

that would cost far far more

No, it really wouldn’t. Not long term.

Offering a place at state school, and if necessary providing a travel pass to get there, would be massively cheaper than paying to take over failing independent schools.
I suspect a lot of parents wouldn’t take up the offered place, particularly as it’s unlikely to be a place at a successful and popular school.

However I'd they cut facilities and increase class sizes, they will die anyway. Even though parents lights out up with it in the very short term, they will be making decisions longer term..

Sorry for typos, damn autocorrect!

We were torn between (a top) private and (a top) state school - DS had offers for both, and are now thanking our lucky stars we went for state.

We could have afforded private (we have 3DC) but not comfortably. Now in this uncertain economic climate (we both have good jobs but have both had pay cuts thanks to corona) we are so relieved school fees are not something we had to worry about.

Most of my friends with children at private schools are really rich and even if they are affected, will still be able to manage the fees no problem (inherited wealth - trusts etc).

But I still know quite a few families like us who have pushed themselves to pay for private and think they will be affected by this. Feel very sorry for them - we just got lucky.

There's no doubt that private schools will be affected by an economic downturn like this.

We had a similar decision last year, growingboys, and went for the private option. We're not regretting the decision so far (DS has had an amazing year, and the school has been fantastic in the current crisis). But our feelings could change depending on how long this situation continues, and whether we end up losing income. I really hope we don't end up regretting our choice. At the moment I'm just desperate for DS to get back to school (as soon as it's deemed safe enough) - he loves it so much, and I'm gutted he's missing part of his first year.