Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector

[suk44]

I was reading an article in the Guardian today about the pressure some independent schools are under in the current situation, and how the ongoing uncertainty could hit the viability of some of them. Regardless of whether someone would be happy or unhappy with it, i''m thinking it is quite likely the sector is heading for a hugely difficult couple of years (like many other sectors of course) and especially since this isn't an issue that will be fully resolved anytime soon.

I understand some private schools were hanging on by their fingernails financially even before this crisis due to the huge increase in pension contributions, and now you have to add in the potential pressure from some parents for partially refunded fees for next term, international boarders having to fly home, and predictions of a deep recession (and therefore fewer that could afford to send their children to fee paying schools).

I'm wondering if we will end up seeing a greater number of such schools merging, closing or converting to state schools that we saw even after the 2008 recession, affecting even some big names?

@resskiestonight

“We had to give notice - we hope to withdraw it in Summer but seems sensible thing to do in circs. Our income has significantly reduced. We have had no reduction n fees from prep school and mainly a load of twinkl sheets to date. I’m concerned school may go under given it wasn’t awash with funds Pre- CV.”

Perhaps our dc’s were at the same school! We were planning to withdraw dd from school anyway because she wasn’t getting on well there - but I was shocked by the parents that apparently loved the place saying they weren’t going to pay fees.

DD has a place at another independent school for after the summer but I’d consider state now. Not sure. It is all so uncertain.

"Ultimately I want the private sector to slowly breakdown so that those with power and influence have children in the state sector and start funding it properly."
This is not going tp happen because in general those "with power and influence" are not sending their DC's to the sort of schools that are going to struggle financially in this current situation. State education is not and has never been on their radar.

This is not going tp happen because in general those "with power and influence" are not sending their DC's to the sort of schools that are going to struggle financially in this current situation. State education is not and has never been on their radar yes, very good point. Dh says he would consider dd going abroad to board before state in this country.

tonyaster would you get a place though? If we had to leave our private school, the good schools nearby (all the grammars plus the well-regarded non-grammars) are massively oversubscribed.

We aren't in a grammar but we are in catchment so yes, we would get a place. It's purely theoretical though because of their school did close (it won't), we would find a private boarding that hadn't closed. If none available we would use the state option with tutors to help if she needed it.

Being in catchment only gets you a place if there are places though? We would easily have got a place at several of our local schools at Y7 entry, but there's no way we would as an in year admission. I realise this isn't relevant for you, and in any case your local school might well have spaces, but this will be the situation facing lots of parents if schools close or parents lose their incomes. (I'm not talking about the serious 'power and influence' types, who I agree won't go anywhere near state).

I expect we would do a version of home schooling with other similar parents and good tutors if it came to it. In fact we would probably look at that before the state system.

It will all depend on whether the lockdown is loosened in 2 weeks - private schools could then choose to reopen (as can day nurseries). Some boarding schools still have students as they couldn't go home - the one I'm in the process of dealing with expects to be reopening by May

I think it will impact the less-known, smaller schools who were struggling with numbers anyway.

I would be very surprised if any big name schools or popular schools (especially in London) struggle. These schools tend to have decent financial backing. Also long waitlists mean parents are unlikely to pull out expecting to re-apply and pick up their place again. Additionally, a lot of schools belong to groups (GDST, United Learning etc.) which helps in these situations.

However, having said that I do know of a big London chain/company who own lots of London preps who do struggle financially because of silly business decisions (setting up a mega expensive school in NYC for no particular reason) or CEOs getting huge salaries and it not filtering down.

Although the better known schools with some financial reserves may not be at risk, there may still be some knock on effect. I know a few well regarded HMC schools where their class sizes got noticeably bigger following the last recession or in the last few years due to the huge hike in pension contributions.

It has already happened in Ireland:
www.irishgirlguides.ie/product-category/leader/badges-leader/
The last remaining boarding prep has closed. It was the subject of a documentary a few years ago.

Is anyone else concerned about their ability to afford independent school fees in the current economic climate? Are people actively looking for a state school now? I see people on this site with three or more children at independent schools seemingly not concerned. Is it family money or are salaries and bonuses so big they don't need to worry? I am interested. I am very concerned as my husband's job is in a vulnerable sector and an economic crisis could mean redundancy this year or next. Are we being overly concerned or should we not be stretching ourselves so much that we shouldn't be in an independent school in the first place?

Is anyone else concerned about their ability to afford independent school fees in the current economic climate

I should think the majority are. I have two at private, one has one year to go, one has 4 more years. If the worst comes to the worst dd2 will have to move to state sixth form, but hopefully that won't happen.

Thank you for for replying. I have a son in Year 10 and a daughter just about the start year 7 with a place a a sort after girls school. Moving at sixth form is an option for our son. We are now seriously thinking about state for our daughter if she can get a place. She got accepted at a grammar school and could go back on the waiting list.

Could she go to the grammar then join the private school in year 9 if finances allow? If the private school has a year 9 entry thst might be worth thinking about

I did think about that. However, day schools seem to be reducing their 13+ intake to increase at 11+. Also if it's a small intake at 13+ it may be hard socially. I think sixth form may be better. How easy is it to get a place at a super selective independent sixth form from state grammar?

We have three at private school and can afford the fees but our income is still taking a hit.

The shadow education secretary has suggested that struggling private schools could be 'integrated' into the state sector.

www.tes.com/news/integrate-virus-hit-private-schools-state-system

I can probably see this happening to at least a small number of schools.

we don't want an influx of former private school children flooding state schools and pushing class sizes up

Yes quite. We don’t want any horrible posh children in the school.

@Andante57 I think that is just what will happen. The most sought after state school will suddenly see students attending who pre-COVID-19 would have gone to private schools. Probably particularly an issue in London.

Will spaces at these ‘sought-after’ state schools become suddenly available?

The only schools near here who have spaces are not what people might consider ‘sought-after’.

I suspect some will indeed go under now.

Some that I have personal experience of have been on a knife-edge for years, and I suspect this will be the final blow for at least a couple of them.

The majority will likely be battered but will emerge just about ok.

The very fortunate minority (including one of my DC's schools) will be able to take the hit with a bit of belt-tightening and thanks to the generosity of a huge number of parents (not me, sadly) who are going to carry on paying full fees despite the lack of full provision next term.

Just as another thought: this could be a good moment to move DC to independent schools, if your DC aren't already there, and negotiate a good deal. I've just done this with one of my day-school DC, who's in effect going to get full boarding at a different school for a day fee. From a school's POV (especially if it's a school which is keen to increase numbers), it's often better to have one lot of half fees than no fees at all.

@rivierliedje is that the right link? I'd be curious to read the article you referenced but it brings me to a page for girl guides!

@Appuskidu many people put in a 'just in case' application for an excellent state school as well as their private school choices - happens a lot with areas such as Sutton and Bromley that have great grammar schools. They may opt to go for the latter but may hold onto the state school place until 100% sure.

Given that the pandemic was already rearing its ugly head around Offers Day, I am sure there are currently many families who have two options in the bag - one state and the other private. If you suddenly find your income has taken a nose-dive you may be very glad to have kept options open and have the state school 'back-up' to take up.

That’s fine if you are applying for admissions the normal way (YR/Y7) at the normal times-by October the year before etc.

If you have a y2/4/8 in private on the other hand, and wanted them to get places in a state school, I was thinking the schools with available places in those year groups may not be where parents maybe hoped.