Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector

[suk44]

I was reading an article in the Guardian today about the pressure some independent schools are under in the current situation, and how the ongoing uncertainty could hit the viability of some of them. Regardless of whether someone would be happy or unhappy with it, i''m thinking it is quite likely the sector is heading for a hugely difficult couple of years (like many other sectors of course) and especially since this isn't an issue that will be fully resolved anytime soon.

I understand some private schools were hanging on by their fingernails financially even before this crisis due to the huge increase in pension contributions, and now you have to add in the potential pressure from some parents for partially refunded fees for next term, international boarders having to fly home, and predictions of a deep recession (and therefore fewer that could afford to send their children to fee paying schools).

I'm wondering if we will end up seeing a greater number of such schools merging, closing or converting to state schools that we saw even after the 2008 recession, affecting even some big names?

One other point.. Non-teaching staff who have been put on furlough that I know were asked not to tell parents - i.e. dinner staff, teaching assistants, secretarial, even admissions clerks.

But I bet bursars are working around the clock!

I think this could see the resurgence in independent schools that embrace home schooling at secondary school level.

I honestly can't see any likelihood of a resurgence in any part of the independent school sector, it'll all come down to finances. The very small number of schools right at the top with longest waiting lists and the biggest reserves will be ok, but all the others (i.e. the ones who actually had any potential for a resurgence) will potentially be at risk.

As I understand, the amount of contributions that schools were required to make to teachers' pensions went up a lot in about 2010, resulting in rising fees. The gap between state and private schools also seems to have narrowed quite a bit over the past 10 years. I think a lot of small and not-well-known private schools will suffer.

A lot of parents will have been exploring things like online learning programs and (Skype) tutoring over this period, and this sector is likely to see huge growth---some of the middle-class, educationally-anxious parents who have been trying out these options may conclude that a good state school plus tutoring is a more cost-effective choice than a private school.

I doubt that home-learning based private schools would take off at any age. Most people don't want a growing teenager stuck at home all day spending hour after hour on screens. It's a port in a storm, but it's not what most people would choose.

Hi @user1477391263 and @suk44: I don't mean that independent schools will turn into home-learning schools or radically change their model. More that many parents are looking at the zoom classes and pastoral care that some indies are providing and comparing that favourably with the more mundane, self-driven approach taken by most state schools.
Given that we don't know how long this will last, this may swing most parents into NOT handing in notice before tomorrow so as not to be liable for the Autumn term. I don't actually know any parents who are serving notice before end of term.
That said, and remember I said I was on the fence here, my LinkedIn is full of people whose jobs have been made redundant or whose small business is in big trouble. Tricky times for many.

Sorry I can't edit the above, but apologies for an unnecessary double negative.

My teenage ds ( year 10) is at an independent school. He has been having online lesson with the teachers at his school from 9am to 4:15. It’s not brilliant, but it’s better than nothing. I will pay for the summer term, however if we are still in lockdown,,I will remove him from school and look for alternatives

Many small to medium sized businesses are going to be in trouble if this continues more than a couple of weeks (I'm not saying it's wrong what we are doing) and this must impact on parents with those small and medium businesses who are sending their children to independent schools. Obviously depending on when their period of notice is required for some its now for others the beginning of the summer term I suspect many parents with small and medium sized businesses will be thinking very hard and at the very least giving possible notice to leave at the end of this academic year. It must be very worrying for both schools parents and children. I'm also not convinced that many schools will have sufficient funds to offer significant financial support to all those going into yr11/13 next year who might need it.

Wouldn't those parents need to give notice today/tomorrow if they want to leave at the end of the academic year?
Most schools ask for a full term's notice received by the end of the previous term, not by the start of the last term.

We gave notice before the lockdown and yes it was a terms notice otherwise you would be liable for the following terms fees too.

We are moving house but very much fall into the camp of going state with supporting private tuition in the future. Our DS is looking very promising in maths and tbh a specialist tutor alongside state education will probably get him much further than what has been offered in private school.

I think it will come down to a demand situation rather than realising Independent schools offer amazing online support. Customer base will be severely depleted and for those still in the market there will be a lot more schools competing for their business.

@NOTANUM I'm not sure I think our last date for giving notice was the first day of a new term (this was a while ago) and I think it was at at least one of the boarding schools I used to work in. But my memory isn't aways good when it comes to these sorts of things!

I forgot to put a link in the op to the Guardian article which is below:

Private schools in UK struggling as coronavirus costs bite

The most telling part is when they quote the head of a small independent school (who i'm sure will have a very good insight into what's going on behind the scenes in such schools), and says “I think we will see some schools closing, I’m sad to say – some are teetering already".

We had to give notice - we hope to withdraw it in Summer but seems sensible thing to do in circs. Our income has significantly reduced. We have had no reduction n fees from prep school and mainly a load of twinkl sheets to date. I’m concerned school may go under given it wasn’t awash with funds Pre- CV. My other concern is that kids won’t go back properly even in sep and we don’t have that much money to squander on Twinkl sheets, as much as I like the school.

NOTANUM says:
The state secondaries are not trying to be an online school and are instead setting some self-guided work to keep up the knowledge the children already have.

However my DD’s state school has been brilliant. Staff setting lessons, some online classes taking place via zoom, lots of communication and staff checking in with students regularly. They are generally sticking to their timetable and have an excellent structure in place to support learning. The independent she left many years ago is an all through school and not much has happened with teaching there at the secondary phase.

There are many good independents and many good state schools. Similarly there are dire schools in both sectors. I object to the expectation that all the state schools will all be doing this remote teaching badly.

Sorry for those who have had to pull children out of school but I do hope your DCs love their new state school as much as my DD does. There is life after independent school. DD is far happier than she ever was when at the independent.

Bit are there any good state school places available at this stage??

No there probably aren't many good state school places available, especially as those who privately educate may not have considered this when choosing where to live.

Bit are there any good state school places available at this stage??

When the cost of corona impacts school funding is going to be massively reduced for the forseeable future along with spending on health, social care etc.

That's quite a defensive post @PettsWoodParadise. I didn't say that all state schools are doing remote working "badly". My post is based on an observation that some independent schools are using this as an opportunity to add value and indeed may have to in order to justify the fees for next term.

So your state school is one of the few that is providing that online, interactive classroom experience via Zoom and they are to be congratulated for that. But I've probably spoken to parents and/or teachers with children in about 20 schools this week and not one is providing that for all subjects across all year groups. Your school is an outlier I expect.

@notanum yes defensive because I am proud of DD’s school and your statement did not say ‘some’ it implied all. I have friends with DCs in a range of state schools and nearly all are doing an amazing job. Some of course better than others. My post was also aimed to help others who may be having to pull their children out of independent schools so they know it isn’t all bleak, even in some our less popular schools round my way.

There is an article in today's Times educational supplement - you need to register to read the article but part of it is below. Sounds ominous for potentially a lot of schools: www.tes.com/news/exclusive-hundreds-private-schools-bust-christmas

Exclusive: Hundreds private schools 'bust by Christmas'

Hundreds of independent schools could face extinction by Christmas due to the effects of coronavirus, Tes has learned.

Insiders say parents are refusing to pay fees at some schools, while in some cases governors are "wrestling" with how much discount should be given for pupils now learning at home.

“There’s been a warning in some quarters that half of independent schools will go bust by Christmas,” a consultant working in the sector told Tes.

“It’s probably best not to say half – because there could be even more than that. The North of England could become a desert when it comes to independent schools."

When asked by Tes whether the estimate was accurate, Peter Woodroffe, of the Independent Schools Association, which represents 540 schools, said: "I think it's an exaggeration. From our experience, whenever a small school is facing closure, parents will usually step in to help."

But he added: "I suspect we might see between 15 and 20 per cent closing, which is still a lot."

With around 2,300 independent schools across the country, that would mean more than 300 schools becoming extinct by Christmas.

@notanum You continue to make sweeping assertions about state schools on the basis of "20 schools" you claim to know. What evidence do you have that PettsWoodParadise's school is an "outlier"? My DD's state secondary has also followed usual timetable using mix of Zoom, Google hangouts and videos etc. And reports from parents of children at the other 5 secondaries in the Borough confirm the same.

I feel like taking issue with @notanum's comments too. My children's schools' approach have not been 'mundane'. They've set imaginative project-based work, have provided excellent and consistent access to teachers for the children - via Teams, Sharepoint and other apps - and the focus on wellbeing has been good: sending lots of wellbeing and mental health resources, encouraging pupils to take time to adjust, do other things like cooking, exercise, music, and - importantly - to keep in touch with their friends. If my teen and pre-teen were sitting in front of Zoom from 9 - 4.30 every day, I'd be very worried about their wellbeing! Mine are having music lessons via Skype/Zoom, and watching online content as well as doing independent research throughout the day, which seems to be in line with what full-time home educators do.

I'm not sure if this one up manship if serving any purpose? I suspect all schools in both sectors are trying their best within the limitations of they might or might not have. Obviously it's easier to to do videos zoom etc to wealthy families from both sectors who are likely have the necessary IT readily available.
"From our experience, whenever a small school is facing closure, parents will usually step in to help.".
I'm not sure that this would happen in the current circumstances surely if parents cant afford the fees because their businesses are struggling they are not gong to bale out a school.

This thread is about the future of the independent sector and my original point is some secondary independent schools are exceeding expectations in how they're coping with the crisis and that it could be their USP, especially if the crisis carries into the Autumn term. If my child was at one of those, I would continue to pay for that service.

We've been in state/private sector for various children along their journeys for a variety of reasons. I would hate to see independent schools fail en masse. It would be disruptive for way too many children across the country.

My children at secondary are at excellent state schools but while the teachers do their best, there are no online classes, virtual assemblies, pastoral sessions etc. Kids are kept busy but need to be self-driven and work to their own timetable to ensure the work is done by the deadline.

But everyone on this thread says my schools - and those for my friends and families - are the outliers. I can't possibly say otherwise so will leave it there.

I did think it's pretty stark for someone representing a large group of private schools effectively saying they're inclined to think hundreds of fee paying schools could close before the year ends..

I'm not sure if this one up manship if serving any purpose? Oh gosh - not oneupmanship, I hope. But pointing out an alternative experience does serve a purpose - to make it really clear that state schools do not and are not peddling a 'mundane' offer with no 'added value', and that this inaccurate view really should not be touted as if it's an objective fact rather than a subjective value judgement. I honestly do feel that 6 or 7 hours of Zoom instruction would be deadly, energy-draining and the very opposite of engaging, and really doesn't work in a home setting. If it's a way for private/independent schools to try to prove that they're providing value for money, then that seems at odds with providing meaningful, enjoyable and effective learning for their pupils. I do feel for the schools and their parents, it must have hit hard.