Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector

[suk44]

I was reading an article in the Guardian today about the pressure some independent schools are under in the current situation, and how the ongoing uncertainty could hit the viability of some of them. Regardless of whether someone would be happy or unhappy with it, i''m thinking it is quite likely the sector is heading for a hugely difficult couple of years (like many other sectors of course) and especially since this isn't an issue that will be fully resolved anytime soon.

I understand some private schools were hanging on by their fingernails financially even before this crisis due to the huge increase in pension contributions, and now you have to add in the potential pressure from some parents for partially refunded fees for next term, international boarders having to fly home, and predictions of a deep recession (and therefore fewer that could afford to send their children to fee paying schools).

I'm wondering if we will end up seeing a greater number of such schools merging, closing or converting to state schools that we saw even after the 2008 recession, affecting even some big names?

There's no doubt that some will fold. How can the they possibly not?We're looking at the kind of economic slowdown similar to The Great Depression. It unthinkable that every school will remain open. Private schools are a business and in all industries there will be bankruptcies given what is taking place right now.

It's very sad. I think any school that wants to keep its students must ramp up their online learning fast and over-deliver as much as possible. Otherwise how can they justify the fees? In the absence of all the 'extras' they must get the core tuition part right.

My long-term criticism of private schools is the staggering expense of the fees that have increased exponentially year on year and always increase above inflation. In a sense they are victims of their own success.

Do we need ever larger sports halls, swimming pools, auditoriums, sixth form common rooms that look like Costa on steroids etc.

I always just wanted my children to go to school and be taught well.

There is always some kind of building work going on, each school desperate to 'stand out' from the crowd with latest newest bauble.

All those grounds and facilities need staff to run them and adds to the overall operating cost yearly that parents must pay for - plus the extra costs of all the new buildings that are ever bigger, ever grander...

As a parent I'd like those projects to stop - for quite some time.

In the end, all I want is for my kids to be taught well.

I hope not. I've always been a bit conflicted about sending mine privately, but their school has been so brilliant, transparent and organised, with great tech already in place. I know our local state has woeful online provision and I don't want to get involved in having to educate my children myself at all. I'd be terrible at it.

I'm not sure why on a thread about indies people need to talk about how much o line work their super state school is providing? The online thing is going to be very short term. Yes some parents will balk at paying fees while the brick and mortar school is shut, but when they see the reality of what they would be allocated in the state system, those that can pay will come crawling back. And it is likely that this will drive some schools under ad sadly will be the case with many businesses. But given the need to pay for the current bailouts and furloughs, spending on state school in the future is likely to be very strained like all public services and as a result even this with some indie school casualties, the sector itself might get a boost in the medium term.

Probably because there were a few posts about state provision which other posters corrected.

Re businesses 1/5 are said to be in trouble generally so schools as businesses will probably follow.

I suspect many will opt out of the teachers pension scheme to reduce salary bills but this will have an adverse effect on recruitment and retention

I suspect many will opt out of the teachers pension scheme to reduce salary bills but this will have an adverse effect on recruitment and retention

Our eldest was suppose to start in a private school in the pre prep in September and we are postponing it. I've been furloughed, the company isn't doing well, and it's all quite uncertain. Hopefully it all turns out ok, but we would be spending all our money on school fees so if we don't have the money, they can't go.

I suspect many will opt out of the teachers pension scheme to reduce salary bills but this will have an adverse effect on recruitment and retention

A lot of private schools had already withdrawn from the Teachers' Pension Scheme or were having to seriously consider doing this even before the current situation, this is now an additional factor that's going to hit their finances that I don't see how cost cutting alone is going to easily solve.

spending on state school in the future is likely to be very strained like all public services and as a result even this with some indie school casualties, the sector itself might get a boost in the medium term.

I also think the state sector is going to be hit financially given cost to the governments coffers of dealing with all this, however I'm not so sure private schools as a whole will benefit from this in the medium term. The only private schools that I imagine might are those that are near another fee paying school that has closed and they end up taking in pupils as there's always some parents that will want to stay private and can afford the fees.

We are really worried about this. Ds is supposed to start in year 7 in September at a local independent day school. we knew it had experienced some financial difficulties and a new head was taking over who has had success in London with schools in a similar situation. However now with the current situation I’m seriously concerned that this might be the nail in the coffin. No idea what we will do if it goes under. We don’t have a credible plan B.

"I did think it's pretty stark for someone representing a large group of private schools effectively saying they're inclined to think hundreds of fee paying schools could close before the year ends."
Whilst I accept the TES is not the DM we don't know who or what a "consultant working in the sector" actually means or what real knowledge he has. On the other hand Peter Woodroffe, of the Independent Schools Association, is obviously going to paint a more optimistic picture as he doesn't want parents jumping ship.
I think it impossible to predict at the moment, it all depends on how long this goes on for, how much help businesses will get from banks (very little currently), whether Covid19 reoccurs in the future and causes another lockdown. But I do think for many struggling schools especially small preps in affluent rural areas with small village primary schools which are very good and who normally struggle to fill their vacancies the future probably isn't very good.

Public schools tend to offer generous amounts to bursaries, they should hopefully be able to weather the storm but the real concern is for prep schools. Early education is so incredibly important and while public schools may survive, if the majority of children complete there prep years in the state sector this is really going to make the job much harder for senior schools.

*"Do we need ever larger sports halls, swimming pools, auditoriums, sixth form common rooms that look like Costa on steroids etc.

I always just wanted my children to go to school and be taught well.

There is always some kind of building work going on, each school desperate to 'stand out' from the crowd with latest newest bauble.

All those grounds and facilities need staff to run them and adds to the overall operating cost yearly that parents must pay for - plus the extra costs of all the new buildings that are ever bigger, ever grander..."*
I think this is a very valid point. But sadly many wont agree. In the boarding sector (which I know the most about) where schools are competing against each other many parents what Olympic sporting facilities including stables lakes and golf courses, high standards accommodation; single rooms and ensuite bathrooms, grounds like Kew Gardens science labs that wouldn't look out of place at MIT and theatres that would put the National Theatre to shame. and of course top results. I can understand it £45k per child PA is a lot of money. But personally I think a lot of this this is all window dressing Ive looked at some breath taking facilities over the years frankly I got bored of looking at rowing lakes and manicured 18 hole golf courses, no child will do all of this stuff, for me its whether you like the ethos that under pins the the place but of course thats more subjective and harder to actually ascertain.

On the other hand Peter Woodroffe, of the Independent Schools Association, is obviously going to paint a more optimistic picture as he doesn't want parents jumping ship.

That was sort of the point I was trying to make - he is hinting that hundreds of schools could close in the near future - and that is from someone trying to put a positive spin on things!

Our private school had online learning up and running quickly. While not ideal, it was in this circumstances a good solution. They have tweaked it for the summer term after a parent and student survey, allowing for some work away from screens. They have also extended the school year and given us a 25% discount. Of course they are worried about retention. And they do have a significant boarding element and are in the middle of building a boarding house.
I will keep.my child there - I've had a 40% reduction in income and it may well get worse, but her education is a main priority for me and she is in Y10 and I do not believe there is an alternative state school of anywhere near the standard where we live. Not one of my closest friends have yet spoken of removing their kids, but I can see maybe for younger reception and primary age it will not be so crucial.
Many businesses will close, and a few private schools will inevitably. This may also mean an increasing strain on the state schools that will need to educate them.

There was never any intention of one-upmanship on my part. I wish all schools - state and private - the very best as they seek to find a way through this. What I will call out though is lazy representations, on the basis of at most limited anecdotal evidence, of state schools providing "mundane" online offers in these difficult times. I am so grateful to my DD's state secondary for all their efforts and I will continue to praise them to the rafters as they continue to do their best for all the young people in their care.

Another parent here with experience of both sectors, and two of my children are at a secondary state school which is doing the most fabulous job - I would pay for the learning they are receiving. The fact that it is not all zoom lessons (the school is using mostly microsoft team with continually updated lessons and objectives - also instagram and email) means 1) they are learning to study independently which is going to help them massively as they get near big exam time in next couple of years 2) they are taking responsibility for how they best learn - just the right amount of hand holding but also they are being left to use their brains to work out what suits them best, what a great skill in preparation for the work place later in life) when the weather is lovely, we can take a few hours off to do something creative outside and then come back and make it up later 4) they don't have a long holiday with nothing to do - the school has given them plenty to get on with so it isn't going to be feast and then fast in terms of input. They have lots of contact from school/ tutors/ children in each subject class. They have lessons for all their subjects including dance, drama, p.e. They are happy, learning, being creative, getting exercise and learning so much about life whilst helping me support more needy people in our community. So please please don't generalise by sector - each school in each sector is different, and some in state are doing cracking job at this difficult time, some in independent woeful and vice versa. My other child has mostly twinkle sheets but she is happy and smiling too!

I think there has been a bit of an arms race in facilities in the past decade at some places from what I have heard. However, I believe that the really big factor pushing up costs was the change in pension contribution rules in about 2010/ There is not really any way to economize on this one, because the one thing a school simply must have is good teachers and they have to be paid for.

Allowing larger class sizes might allow costs to be cut, but you do get some parents who pay for private school specifically because they want small classes.

'm not sure why on a thread about indies people need to talk about how much o line work their super state school is providing?

Because it's relevant---the question of whether it is worth it to pay for a private school is obviously dependent on the relative quality of what you could get for free.

I hope they don't go bust and close, we don't want an influx of former private school children flooding state schools and pushing class sizes up. We've supported the state sector for years and don't want it taken advantage of by parents who thought it wasn't good enough for their children.

Well that is what is going to happen cheesenmarmite. And private school parents pay their taxes as well so entitled to use state education if they need too.

Because it's relevant---the question of whether it is worth it to pay for a private school is obviously dependent on the relative quality of what you could get for free

If it were that simple noone would use private school - when dd was at state secondary she got an ok education for free, and reaults were good for the clever students. In my case I believe what my private school is offering during school closure is far superior to what the state is offering. All the puplis have good quality pen enabled tablets for a start and they've been using a tech based approach to lessons for 18 months already, so a lot of the technical issues won't apply.

We've supported the state sector for years and don't want it taken advantage of by parents who thought it wasn't good enough for their children

Taxes paid. My private school won't close,.but if it did dd would go to our local private, which I have supported just as much as any state school parent already by paying taxes. No, it wasn't good enough for my dd before, but we'd make the best of it and she'd probably be in all the top sets and do very well academically.

dd would go to our local private
State!

This may be a good thing for society in the long run. I feel sorry for children who were expecting one school and may not have it to go to come September's. Ultimately I want the private sector to slowly breakdown so that those with power and influence have children in the state sector and start funding it properly.

I haven't read the article but I will as its interesting to know why this is thought. I have 5 girls in 3 different private schools so have a bit of a range to compare. As others have stated already all non teaching staff other than the burser, accounts and admissions have been furloughed. All catering, cleaning, maintenance, teaching assistants, and reception staff furloughed. PE staff have been furloughed.

They have lost revenue from breakfast club, after school and holiday club. However have equally zero cost associated.

In our case at least the schools have long waiting lists (thus the girls not able to be in the same prep).

We have been offered between 10-18% reduction in fees and if a parents financial situation is struggling they have offered support. In each of our girls cases I am not aware of anyone forgoing their place at school, why would they at the moment we are only a few weeks into this change and parents have either been continuing their work as pre c-19 or have sufficient funds to be unaffected.

That's just my experience, no change to date.