Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector

[suk44]

I was reading an article in the Guardian today about the pressure some independent schools are under in the current situation, and how the ongoing uncertainty could hit the viability of some of them. Regardless of whether someone would be happy or unhappy with it, i''m thinking it is quite likely the sector is heading for a hugely difficult couple of years (like many other sectors of course) and especially since this isn't an issue that will be fully resolved anytime soon.

I understand some private schools were hanging on by their fingernails financially even before this crisis due to the huge increase in pension contributions, and now you have to add in the potential pressure from some parents for partially refunded fees for next term, international boarders having to fly home, and predictions of a deep recession (and therefore fewer that could afford to send their children to fee paying schools).

I'm wondering if we will end up seeing a greater number of such schools merging, closing or converting to state schools that we saw even after the 2008 recession, affecting even some big names?

growingboys. This is very interesting. We now are facing the same decision....

Given the possible numbers involved, some indies being allowed or even encouraged to convert to state schools may be the best (least worst?) solution, ignoring the political complexion of the person quoted in the TES article.

I'm not sure why I'm in this thread as I'm not a private school parent (but I am a state school Governor so generally very interested in all aspects of education)

I wanted to point out that around the last recession two former private schools in Bristol - Bristol Cathedral Choir School and Colston Girls school converted to State Schools. They have maintained their excellent results and even though they use an random allocated admissions procedure they probably still are the most sought after schools in the city. Just wanted to point out that it can be done very successfully.

@Milicentbystander72 out of interest do you know to what extent class sizes there increased, or if there was any reduction in the previous provision of subjects offered or extracurricular provision? I understand spending per pupil is approx half in state funded schools (although obviously varies) so I'm just wondering where this reduction was 'seen' so to speak.

Incidentally I know someone who worked in a school which also converted into state, and at the time there was a considerable turnover in staff.

Suk44 I'm afraid I don't know the details that you're asking. Interesting questions to ask though. I have a friend with a dc at Bristol Cathedral Choir School but am unsure about the changes made in the school from Private to State. I think the capacity in the whole school is around 680 so class sizes must still be smaller than a typical state school.

If you're interested have a look at their website. They have a 'history of the school' section which is really interesting.

bccs.bristol.sch.uk/

I don't know much detail about Colston Girls either I'm afraid. I just know both schools are very high achieving and highly sought after. A good example of private turned state I think.

The size of classes might be limited by physical classroom sizes. How many DC can actually fit in? Some schools have small classrooms so they may not be able to take 30.

Colston has reduced its PAN from 168 to 140 so 4 x 28.

I think parents will be concerned about fees if they are relying on income and have doubts about that for the future. The big well known schools will be fine but the little cosy ones might struggle with too many “scraping the fees together” parents.

I think nobody knows what will happen as many parents will probably (if they can) wait until next year, as it is very difficult right now to look for another school etc

So I think roll numbers and it's true extent will be more apparent for 2021...

I don’t think you can look at independents as a single group more as a collection of risk factors.
School roll percentage of international boarders - the higher the percentage the higher the risk.
Prep - might be more likely to lose prospective pupils than secondary. But GCSE year and sixth form might be different from lower years.
Current pupils - Fees how are they afforded by current parents, out of income or not and if out of income how affordable it is.

Cash flow - managing it within the school and how long they can weather a period of lower income. The school roll size comes in there too, it’s easier to trim costs or staff with a larger roll than a smaller one, also running costs are spread over a bigger number of fees. If it’s single form per year there isn’t much to trim despite reduced pupil numbers.

Impact on state schools from those no longer taking up an independent place or withdrawing from independents is going to happen. The scale of that depends on the local area percentage of kids not currently in state education, some areas will be hit harder than others.

In the last recession, there were two big changes

a) big drop in numbers applying or pre-prep (ascribed to parents seeking to reduce he number of years they were paying, and waiting tonsee how their finances moved in these years)

b) drop in numbers of home students boarding. This led to more boarding schools actively seeking to recruit international students. That might be a less available option this time. Increasing the number of day places (or flexiboarding places, with the hope that there be a creeping return to full/er boarding over time) could also be an opruin, but very dependent on whether there are enough local parents interested in a private school place.

Which leads to an important third point, which was very evident in London last time. Increased demand for day school,places. Londoners who might otherwise have looked to boarding, were unsure of future income decided to go for day schools (lower bills). It became very, very competitive, even more so than usual. So I thi kmthere couid be quite a difference between London and most of the rest of UK.

I think that day schools are likely to do better overall, not just in London. DD's day school in the SW added one bulge Yr7 class last year and two this, so they can probably withstand quite a few families withdrawing.

We will stay, her fees are paid for by an inheritance, thank heavens.

I note that the Sutton Trust compared the online (live or recorded teaching sessions, not just setting work) between private and state schools. They found inequality between the two.

The polling found over half of students in independent primaries (51%) and secondaries (57%) take part in online lessons every day. This is two and half times as often as their state school contemporaries (19% and 22%).

As I said up thread, this could turn out to be a selling point for independent schools who can say they're able to provide schooling remotely.

It’s started:

www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/park-school-yeovil-placed-administration-4064507

And another couple www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/amanda-barclays-special-needs-school-closes-due-to-pandemic-frederick-

www.hawleyhurst.co.uk/administration-faq

That's really sad to read. To be honest, as the weeks go by, I'm becoming more convinced that the fees are worth paying, not less. DS is having full days of timetabled lessons (a mix of live and not live), plus daily tutor support, which means that I can work full days from home without needing to give him any input (except making lunch ). In addition, he's continuing to have live music lessons, plus the school has adapted a lot of its extra curricular clubs (and added new ones) so that he's keeping himself busy 'after school' as well, and he's also still getting the softer side of his relationship with his teachers (the chat and the banter), which is one of the things he loves so much about school. I've heard lots of snippy comments about private schools just doing this sort of thing to 'justify their fees' - but surely justifying their fees is what they're doing all the time anyway?

Private schools have more teachers per 30 pupils than state schools, specialist teachers and a very strong reason to support their DC. The parents might pull the pupils out if they don’t think they are getting enough for their money. State schools don’t have this business relationship with DC. More private parents are invested financially in the outcomes for their DC and are perhaps expecting more and getting more. But.... there are more staff to deliver it. It’s not 1:30 as in state primary schools.

No state schools don’t have a ‘business relationship’ with their pupils but they often have one of integrity, responsibility and care. I am saying this having had a child in both private and state. Private school 24 in a class, state 27, not much difference. Teaching quality better in state. Excellent communication in this present crisis from state teachers and going above and beyond their roles.

I think private schools do mostly have exactly what you say, PettsWoodParadise and no private school we have used has had 24 in a class. 18 max. So 2 teachers to 36 and sometimes 2 teachers to 30. That’s far more standard in private primary schools. They also tend to have floating specialist teachers with no class responsibility. So staffing is pretty generous and that is, of course, what people pay for. In the very best preps, teachers are qualified. Maybe in ones pushing 24 into a class they have different standards? I know in average little private primary schools you don’t get teachers who are necessarily qualified but in the best schools you do. Generally private school parents will be expecting something for their £ thousands right now. State parents will also be expecting something but are not in a position to do anything about it if they don’t get it.

I absolutely wasn't denigrating what state schools are offering, just saying that I definitely feel like I'm getting value for my fees at the moment. And yes, I completely agree that staffing ratios are a major reason why this level of 'service' is possible (secondary in our case, and roughly 20 in a class rather than the 30-34 which seems more typical locally). Which as well as affecting workload, must also make live teaching that bit more manageable. Plus I think the teachers generally have lighter teaching timetables, so more free periods for planning and prep. And as well as caring about their kids, just as state school teachers do, I'm sure they are also well aware that their jobs ultimately depend on keeping the parents happy.

The school in Yeovil had been in financial difficulties for quite some time and may not have made it anyway. Yeovil is never going to be an easy catchment for an independent school.

The school in Yeovil had been in financial difficulties for quite some time and may not have made it anyway. Yeovil is never going to be an easy catchment for an independent school.

I'm sure that's true, but that will also be true of lots of other schools, and the COVID situation will be the straw that finally pushes them over the edge, as it were.

Bubbles have you had any children in state education currently? You may be surprised on what they are offering online (in my Dds state secondary school the same as andantino). Except for my Year 11 who has currently done nothing this week except read novels until the bridging A Level work turns up on Monday .
Orchestra and various choirs still on and linked up online. All the state primaries have linked up to set challenges etc and provide a full online service.

No. But I wasn’t really looking at what’s on offer in a tiny minority of schools known to posters. I thought we were talking about take up of “lessons” by DC overall. The stats that were presented upthread and why that might be the case. I’m sure MN DC go to the best state schools in the uk. There is no doubt that private schools have more generous staffing. There is no doubt that some state schools are going above and beyond. There is no doubt that some DC are prepping for A levels diligently and there is no doubt some are saying “no”. I can think of a few saying “no” right now and parents have given up. From the stats they might be the majority but obviously not on MN.

I’m sure MN DC go to the best state schools in the uk.

Lol. My dc's school is currently Ofsted-rated as 'Inadequate'. At least some of that rating is definitely justified (though other parts are not), but dc is still being provided with music lessons (online) via the school, plus a reasonable range of other online learning.

It will be interesting to see how the private school viability situation plays out, since the schools most likely to fold are those which are not really providing anything over and above what is available in the state system (and sometimes considerably less) apart from an aura of exclusivity. Parents who have shelled out six-figure sums for their child's education are understandably inclined towards confirmation bias when assessing the benefits to their child of this expenditure, but when the rubber really hits the road, as in the coronavirus crisis, I assume it will become clear which schools are actually running on empty.

Judging by the length and frequency of the Oxbridge threads on Higher Education, they definitely do! I guess you haven’t read any of them!

I think the schools most likely to fold are the ones with too many parents who scrape the fees together. As I said above. Parents might continue to pay for what they think is exclusive and of course their views of what they want might not accord with yours.

I did send DD to a private nursery attached to a private school. It was fairly obvious the school was not great. The nursery was superb. In DDs nursery group of 34, 4 made it to y6. Its still open and people still pay for DC to go there. No, it’s not as good as many local state schools. Yes, it has a lot of parents sailing close to the wind financially. So we shall see. But don’t underestimate the desire for some people to have their DC separated from the state school ruffians and dig really deep to do that. They really don’t all look at educational value.