DfE Data Cruncher predicts number of students who will get straight 9s

[noblegiraffe]

His guess is.... 2

Not 2%,

2 kids in the whole country will get all 9s in their GCSEs.

So that's the new challenge for the MN boaster.

Ofqual reckon 0 kids will manage it. They clearly haven't met any MNetters' kids.

twitter.com/timleunig/status/845699774754017280

If there are two or more, my prediction is that the newspapers will publish a photo of them simultaneously jumping in the air.

I think they could be right.

I do know of a couple of kids who possibly would be capable - but they have scholarships at incredibly academic private schools who will be doing IGCSE which are still A-G.

As yine goes on & you get a cohort who arn't playing catch up like the current year 10 are (why didn't the curriculum change from the bottom up) the number will increase slightly - you will always get a small handful of academic genius kids.

It will he very interesting.

Cambridge and Edexcel iGSE will be 9-1 for Maths and English this year and for all subjects in June 2018.

Game on! Son is consistently getting 9s in all single science end of unit exams. He will be up for the challenge when he reads this.

I thought it was optional? Certainly Cambridge are currently advertising 2 IGCSE's for the UK for examination in 2019 one of which is a 9-1 syllabus

www.cie.org.uk/images/346732-changes-to-gcse-grading.pdf

Certainly won't be my DD - there's probably only one subject she's got a realistic chance of a 9. Generally, though I think the new top grade is a good idea. My understanding from the Uni threads is that it's hard for the universities to distinguish the top performers in say History so they end up giving preference to those who have more top grades in other GCSE subjects. If this is true then it means the top History students won't be disadvantaged by "only" having Bs in Science for example. Seems on the surface to be fairer.

Wow, makes me feel better about my year 11 group estimated grades!

In order to do the A-levels he wants, DS2 (Y10) has been told that he will need 8,8,8,8,7,7,7,7 in his best eight subjects. This is working well to motivate him; he does extra study / revision on top of set homework most days.

DS1 in year 10 has 2 predictions for 9s but I think it's misguided to do this because it can only be awarded once the grade 8 has been worked out. Any child who gets a 7 or 8 in any subject will have done extremely well, will be all set for A levels and should be very proud of themselves. If they manage it in maths and English this year, even more so!

That's going to be really tough on teenagers who have very pushy ambitious parents as they are going to expect all 9s whereas it seems unrealistic to impose that target on children.

It's also going to be tough on the very many teenagers who push themselves to get top grades (despite their parents saying lots of other things are important too ..)

I'm already having to try to scale back dd's expectations - she's at a school where a significant number of pupils have always got straight A*s and dd would have put herself in that cohort. I'm just relieved she's got another two years before taking the exams so she may have a more realistic approach by then ...

Noble is that 2 kids per year?

It's also going to be tough on the very many teenagers who push themselves to get top grades (despite their parents saying lots of other things are important too ..)

Yes, that was my DD. Now my middle DS is going to push himself to achieve the same or better than his sister because he looks up to her and wants to be like her . It's not great.

Hang on. I thought it was norm referenced? So I assumed the number/ percentages of each grade had already been determined.....it was just the boundaries required to attain those levels which were moveable (and thus pretty well impossible to predict?).

That tweet implies criterion referencing.

And, anyone who's not a teacher on here.....we've got no reliable idea what grades students are getting at the moment!

It is norm referenced. We already know roughly how many 9s there will be in each subject. The predictions are trying to work out the probability of a child being in the tiny percentage to get a 9 in all of their subjects.

"In order to do the A-levels he wants, DS2 (Y10) has been told that he will need 8,8,8,8,7,7,7,7"

I'm sorry, but that is completely ridiculous. Particularly when nobody has even sat any of the new exams yet!

"If there are two or more, my prediction is that the newspapers will publish a photo of them simultaneously jumping in the air."

Only if they are girls with long blonde hair........

A friend told me that her yr9 son has predicted grades of a few 8s and mostly 9s for gcse.. she was wondering how they can predict these grades.
Dd is same age but at a different school. The highest that her school have commited themselves to is 7+ as a predicted gcse grade.

I reckon for maths and sciences we are talking full marks and for other subjects not far off. I still can't only see 2 children a year with all 9s though

Noble said it was " 2 kids in the whole COUNTRY " not per yr group.
Wow... .I won't tell DD. She'll see it as a gauntlet thrown down.

I reckon for maths and sciences we are talking full marks and for other subjects not far off.

Looking at the mark distribution for the Edexcel maths mock exams (schools submitted their results for analysis) it's going to be way off full marks needed for a 9, if the real thing is like the mocks. The papers are really hard!

Is it true the average mark was 37% for maths across the country? Anyone know?

About 30% for Edexcel. Both on the higher and Foundation papers, for the November mocks.

Hurrah. The string of perfect grades and test results thing is horrible. A climate where the concept of 'success' for that end of the curve has become something less than perfection will be much better. More humane.