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Original poster

DfE Data Cruncher predicts number of students who will get straight 9s

900 replies

noblegiraffe · 25/03/2017 21:12

His guess is.... 2

Not 2%,

2 kids in the whole country will get all 9s in their GCSEs.

So that's the new challenge for the MN boaster.

Ofqual reckon 0 kids will manage it. They clearly haven't met any MNetters' kids.

twitter.com/timleunig/status/845699774754017280

OP posts:
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AlexanderHamilton · 26/03/2017 22:19

Is it because they predict using FFT data from Sats or CATS & it hasn't crossed across to the new grading structure well yet?

AlexanderHamilton · 26/03/2017 22:19

Is it because they predict using FFT data from Sats or CATS & it hasn't crossed across to the new grading structure well yet?

ATruthUniversallyAcknowledged · 26/03/2017 22:20

Game on! Son is consistently getting 9s in all single science end of unit exams. He will be up for the challenge when he reads this.

@portico sorry to burst the bubble but he's not 'getting 9s'. No one has a clue what a 9 will look like, not even he exam boards. He might be scoring highest in his class, or predicted 9s, or getting 9s from some random mark boundary that his teacher came up with, but he's not 'getting 9s'. The uncertainty is what makes this whole thing so frustrating.

goodbyestranger · 26/03/2017 22:23

titchy someone has to get them and I guess experienced teachers should be able to work backwards from previous cohorts and distinguish between those in the lower and higher brackets of the A* grade. I don't see that it's 'absolutely ridiculous'. Why do you feel it is, given that the grade exists? I know it's not a perfect science but still.

It's just that if only native speakers can get a 9 in MFL then predicting a 9 to a non native speaker who doesn't even have holidays or exchanges in the country in question seems a bit optimistic.

goodbyestranger · 26/03/2017 22:26

Alexander DD's school has target grades based on that sort of stuff and then predicted grades, which can be different.

titchy · 26/03/2017 22:26

Yes of course some kids will get 9s. But very few. And likely to be those in super super selective schools. And no one actually knows what they will look like, what marks kids will need to get, so predicting the unknown is a bit stupid.

TheDrsDocMartens · 26/03/2017 22:26

Dds school is predicting 9s only to those who are really exceptional in a subject. Dd2 (y10) has had 9 in 2 tests so far but they were by achieving almost 100% which won't happen in the real exam. School seems vaguely realistic in predictions although they still don't know what will happen and are quite clear about it.

goodbyestranger · 26/03/2017 22:27

portico this is about 9s across all subjects, not just science - so for the game to be on your DS needs to be doing as well in all of his other subjects as he is in science.

Original poster
noblegiraffe · 26/03/2017 22:29

He only got 42% in the Edexcel mock. He wants to talke it for A level, but is really not sure if he is good enough now.

Yoghurt I think he should have it as a 'possible' but he's going to have to wait for the actual results to see how he gets on in the real thing. Obviously he should be working his arse off to maximise his chances Wink

I think A-level maths take-up is going to plunge disastrously because of this mess. Kids have had their confidence shaken, and they don't usually sign up for two year unknown courses in subjects they don't feel sure about.

OP posts:
goodbyestranger · 26/03/2017 22:29

titchy why would a teacher predict an 8 if a DC is working at the level that a previous DC who achieved a high A* was working at at the same time in the recent past? That would be odd.

Original poster
noblegiraffe · 26/03/2017 22:31

Is it because they predict using FFT data

Possibly. FFT targets for the new GCSE grades look totally bonkers at the moment because no one has any actual data to work with yet.

OP posts:
titchy · 26/03/2017 22:42

Predicting an 8 in a student who'd have otherwise been a high A star is sensible. No one knows what the 9 will look like. It might need 99% across all papers. Do you know what marks will be needed for a 9?

RedHelenB · 26/03/2017 22:43

Noble -Not on the full paper no but on whatever they were sent from EDEXCEL. I know they were talking about looking at other exam boards as the material was seen as hard.

goodbyestranger · 26/03/2017 23:03

titchy an 8 is supposed to be for the lower A*s.

No-one is counting on getting 9s simply because they're predicted but to tell very able students that they should be aiming only for the second highest grade is a bit weird isn't it?

And no I haven't harangued DD's teachers and told them they're 'absolutely ridiculous' and asked what marks are required because their judgment is better than mine and I only quite like predictions since they give a steer, I don't get hung up on them. Although in fact the (same) teachers were bang on the money for the older DC so it would be good if they were right about DD too :)

titchy · 26/03/2017 23:17

So what % will gain a 9 then?

AIM for 9s by all means - wouldn't disagree with aiming high. But predicting 9 - not a chance.

Greenifer · 26/03/2017 23:23

While I really hate all the chopping and changing and the constant moving of boundaries which cannot help anyone, least of all teachers (who simply don't have the information to give their best to their students), I cannot help feeling that the top grade being genuinely exceptional and very hard to get could be a good thing. Hopefully we will see an end to those ridiculous A across the board stories in newspapers and exceptionally able children having a real challenge to work for? Is this naive? I would like to see exceptionally able kids having something in their sights that they can only get with genuine application rather than the A target which seemed too easy to achieve for some of them.

If we go back to how it was when we had O Levels then getting A grades across the board was really quite an amazing thing in those days. We didn't feel we had failed when we got a B. That was still a good grade and perfectly respectable. I went to a highly selective secondary and then to Oxbridge and I got 6 As and 6 Bs. This was far from unusual for children aiming very high in those days (while still being a very good result). As long as the pass grade is aimed at encompassing everyone who has a decent grasp of the subject, I honestly don't understand where the problem lies. Not being goady, I just really think that giving the most able a difficult target isn't a bad thing. The pass grade boundaries would be of more concern to me than whether or not some very intelligent children get 9s across the board, because it's more important for most people to be able to show a decent standard of achievement in the core subjects for their future lives.

My child is clever. I expect she will get one or two 9s if the same system is still in place by the time she does that kind of exam. But I worry more for those who are near the pass boundary than for her. She will do OK whatever system is in place by the time she takes those important exams.

tiggytape · 26/03/2017 23:24

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

AtiaoftheJulii · 26/03/2017 23:29

Ds's school - or at least his English teacher, who said one of the maths teachers explained it to her - seem to think that the number of 9s awarded in maths or English depends on the number of 7-and-aboves in maths and English combined. That's what ds said, and it sounded like bollocks, but then that seemed to be what she was explaining at parents evening recently too.

But I've read
www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/551571/Decisions_-setting_GCSE_grade_standards-_part_2.pdf

and www.cambridgeassessment.org.uk/Images/298710-a-possible-formula-to-determine-the-percentage-of-candidates-who-should-receive-the-new-gcse-grade-9-in-each-subject.pdf

and they don't say anything like that! They are very clear that the "tailored" formula, as they call it, gives different proportions of 9s for each subject, and makes no comparisons between subjects.

Tbh, I don't understand how the school seem so confused (or are possibly just explaining it really badly!).

BertrandRussell · 26/03/2017 23:32

You know something? So long as they get what they need to get into whatever they want to do next it'll be absolutely fine.

AtiaoftheJulii · 26/03/2017 23:37

Lol, oh, I just think it's interesting. There's proper maths and everything in that second link of mine Grin

Ds should get a 9 in maths. English (both) - we'll all be happy with 7s.

Zoflorabore · 26/03/2017 23:44

This proves that the numbers are farcical, ds is in year 9 and has started his 3 yr GCSE's.
It's like a star star star star star whatever..
Where does it stop?

Used to be such an achievement years ago to get an "A" then it went to "A*" and now this.

If only 2 children in the whole country are predicted to achieve these grades then why set the bar so high in the first place?

I've had to acclimatise myself with the numbers as it's not as simple as b,c,d etc it's all low b, high c and I think the system is setting our young people up for a fall.

If it ain't broke don't fix it.

tiggytape · 26/03/2017 23:46

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

TapOut · 27/03/2017 00:11

^^

😂😂😂. Ohh yes and I'm sure we will hear all about it.

TheDrsDocMartens · 27/03/2017 07:02

I thought top 5% were 9. So exceptional A* children

BertrandRussell · 27/03/2017 07:04

"My DC was amazed that they let people into decent universities years ago with perhaps the odd B grade"

You do know they still do...........?

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