DfE Data Cruncher predicts number of students who will get straight 9s

[noblegiraffe]

His guess is.... 2

Not 2%,

2 kids in the whole country will get all 9s in their GCSEs.

So that's the new challenge for the MN boaster.

Ofqual reckon 0 kids will manage it. They clearly haven't met any MNetters' kids.

twitter.com/timleunig/status/845699774754017280

These tables show how the tailored approach affects the percentage of grade 9s awarded compared to the 20% approach.

Fewer grade 9s available in Maths and English, way more available in Latin and Greek.

I do hope that any departments awarding grades to work are bearing these changes in mind given that they were only confirmed in September (and this handy table was buried in the original consultation document not the consultation results announcement).

I need a tutor for Classical Greek, Latin and Biology. Pronto!
Is there one in the house.....lol

So that means doing double science you are very unlikely to score highly compared to triple science?

It's because bright kids are often entered for triple over double so the double cohort are less likely to score highly as they're not as clever.

If you look at the column for As, on the original 20% calculation they were going to end up with more kids getting 9s than would have got As which is silly.

What's even sillier is that it took them till 2016 to realise this!

One slightly concerning thing that I've only just noticed is that the values in the table for 9s - 4.2% for English Lang and 3.7% for maths are different to the figures given on the latest Ofqual guidance of 2% for English and 3% for Maths.

Have they halved the Sept 2016 number of 9s for English? Why has maths gone down? That would not be a small difference!

Noblegiraffe you are brilliant with these insightful snippets of information. Considering my boys have never atttempted Latin or Classical Greek I know the perfect tutor. Boris. Yes, Boris! It won't be long before May drops him. He evangelises about Classics and Latin. I am sure he can make these dry subjects feel like fun. 😜 My tongue firmly in cheek.

If 40.9% of kids will get a 9 in Classical Greek, it really must be rather easy.

'Little Boris got a 9 in his Classical Greek don't you know'
'Yes, so did everyone else!'

OK, that is just silly, Noble. I hugely appreciate your posts in general and have the utmost respect for you as a Maths teacher, but the fact is that a tiny percentage of children of a tiny percentage who are mainly in highly selective schools are taking Ancient Greek, and the vast majority of them will be children who are already very very likely to score highly at other related subjects such as Latin and MFL and are in the top few per cent of the ability range for this kind of subject. I wish more children in non-selective schools were offered this kind of thing but it is very much a minority interest, difficult to offer in comprehensives (who wants to pay for a minority interest teacher to teach three or even ten kids a year, particularly with the ridiculous funding cuts) and largely taken up by those who teachers know have the ability and interest and support to do well, even in selective schools.

I fully support the viewpoint that none of this has been thought out very well (or possibly at all) and that it is utterly idiotic that it is being rushed in with no real preparation for either teachers or students but I do not support doing some (admittedly advantaged) children down for tackling something that actually isn't that easy. What I hope most is that those in the middle ability range are not going to be disadvantaged in terms of qualifications that will affect their life chances. I hope the ones at the top end are not discouraged (but most will probably be fine). And I hope the ones at the bottom end will be offered something that is interesting and useful and enjoyable (but hold out little hope for this). I also hope that the few who are tackling Ancient Greek won't have their achievements and hard work belittled by inverse snobbery.

Agree completely Greenifer.

Oh FGS Greenifer it was a joke don't you think I know the profile of kids taking Classical Greek?

It's like when people say Further Maths is the easiest A-level because kids get the highest grades in it.

Thanks, Empress.

Oh, and they are not 'dry subjects'. As with all other subjects, they are interesting to those who have the ability and desire to take them on and are taught them well. It is a shame that they are not offered to more children but then it's also a terrible shame that our schools have been starved of funds to the point where it simply isn't economic sense to offer them to everybody. I'd love to see schools where the bloody eBacc and percentages of whatever grades aren't an issue and everyone could just study whatever the hell engaged them most but that won't be forthcoming in the current climate.

can'tkeepawayforever I didn't limit my comments to teachers - there are poor quality practitioners in many professions. Probably not all, but many. What I said was that simply being a qualified teacher doesn't confer the status of good or effective teacher or teacher whose every word should be hung upon which is why I currently take my cue from the teachers I do know and respect.

cricketballs hi that's a really limited comment. Yes, DD's class has completed the syllabus a year and a bit ahead of the exam in the summer term of 2018. They're doing other stuff in the meantime. That was a very pointless remark!

Sorry, it didn't come across like a joke but maybe I am having a sense of humour failure. It sounded really mean-spirited. That's the problem with text, I guess. Sorry.

Noblegiraffe, can you please post URLs to the two sets of images you posted. I will forward on to headmaster at school. I would like to think he is aware of this - but he is no savvy head.

I mean URLs to the documents containing the said images.

The Ofqual thermometer thing with the latest figures is here ofqual.blog.gov.uk/2017/04/05/setting-grade-9-in-new-gcses/

The table thing for all subjects was from here:
schoolsweek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Setting_grade_standards_part_2.pdf

I've figured out why the Ofqual thermometer is different to the percentages from September 2016 - it's because the Ofqual thermometer used last year's data (and so will be accurate for this year's calculations) and the figures that were published in September 2016 were based on 2014 data and so will be out of date.

What this appears to mean is that any predictions made for grade 9s before April 5th will be based on inaccurate data, and any assumptions made about grade 9s for any other subjects will be subject to change in the future.

Greenifer I was responding to Portico who was also joking - she used a smiley though so probably her intention was clearer. Sorry I was a bit snippy!

I am warming to you a lot Noble. I feel guilty about my posts of a few days ago. You are very informative with the subject matter. I like that.

I may be telling you the obvious here, but have you seen the bronze, silver and gold ed Excel practice papers on their site. They are available to all. Perhaps, these could be useful revision for your students, if you have not seen them already.

I was cross with Portico too! Actually, I have had a really crappy day so maybe I should just back off from picking arguments with people who probably agree with me!

Anyway, sorry everyone and happy that you agree with me that children who work hard and achieve something difficult should be appropriately rewarded.

No offence taken Greenifer. Most of my posts are on the Sec Edu pages, as I am passionate about education for my kids and a few neighbour's kids, too.

I am sure we will argue and make up again. Life's too short to argue. Good night, see you soon. 👍🏽😄

Ha. I'm just coming up to the secondary thing (my child is in Y5) so just beginning to get to grips with what will be expected of her in the years to come (although who knows, someone else may come up with some other crappy idea that nobody has really thought through and it will all change). I am also passionate about education for both my own child and for my child's friends. I just wish we supported education in the wider sense more strongly as a country because it matters so much.

Night night.

Absolutely, Greenifer - if they hadn't changed the awarding of the grade 9 formula then it would have had the effect of deterring bright kids from taking hard subjects because it would have been harder to get a top grade. Schools chasing the sweep of 9s would have been rewarded with switching Latin for Media Studies!

I'm used to the whole 'must be easy if everyone gets a good grade in it' thing because of Further Maths so my post was totally obvious in my head but obviously didn't read that way. Hope your tomorrow is better!

I agree that the "fiddling" with the grade 9 boundaries is necessary. When I took O Levels I think I was the last cohort that had to suffer fixed grade boundaries. In theory every entrant could have scored 90%+ in an exam yet some would have been getting Cs which is, of course, ludicrous.

Harking back to many pages ago, I think The Mill on the Floss is the most boring book ever to be foisted on teenagers. In my family photos of one 1980s summer, photobombing many pictures is my school copy that I was supposed to be wading through with the bookmark advancing about two pages every two weeks.

"Harking back to many pages ago, I think The Mill on the Floss is the most boring book ever to be foisted on teenagers."

Oh heavens, I don't think anyone should read it until they are 18 at least. But unlike most
Mumsnetters, I don't think the "classics" are suitable for kids at all-with one or two exceptions. My heart always sinks at the "my 8 year old has read all of Dickens-what do you recommend now?"

I love, love, love all of George Eliot. Read her at university and just after. I think early twenties is the right age to read almost any. You're like a sponge, open-minded, not yet cynical and with endless energy for reading through the night. Just as well when an English degree has you reading up to four whole books a week!