@Selkiesarereal
So I like to think of the pensions akin to my current account, either I have enough money in to meet my expenses or I don’t.
If I don’t, then I either have to cut back in my expenses which also cover lots of other things, like health, schools, etc., or I need more money coming in.
So the question is whether Scotland right now has enough money coming in to cover current pension costs along with all the other outgoings.
And given the latest shenanigans over who is to pay for the pensions, it doesn’t sound like we do as otherwise why change the position from indyref 1 - perhaps they have looked at the predicted oil prices made then and realised that those prices never happened, oil is now the bad guy and we have a big stinking black hole?
They haven't changed their position. They've not said there's a 'pot' or that pension would be paid by rUK post indy. Simply, there will be a transition period.
The law of the Continuing State (Vienna Conventions 1978 etc) is clear that rUK gets the assets (embassies, gold, Falklands, etc) and the liabilities (UN fees, IMF fees, pensions, National Debt, etc), while Scotland gets what is physically located in Scotland or its territorial waters. rUK would be entitled to remove items from Scotland such as military vehicles and aircraft, paintings in military bases, etc where they can be shown to belong to rUK). For the avoidance of doubt the territorial waters are defined by the UN Law on the Sea, and not by any line drawn by Tony Blair!
Can Scotland afford the State Pension? The answer is Yes and we can use the GERS date to show that. Table 1.1 in GERS 2021 puts National Insurance collected in Scotland at £11,476 million, which is 8% of the UK total. NI is more regressive than Income Tax as Scottish income tax is only 6.6% of UK total. The State Pension (in Box 3.2) is given as £8,517 million. So it covers the State Pension in Scotland with £2,959 left to go towards other welfare payments. Universal Credit is put at £3,170 so our NI receipts essentially cover both the State Pension and Universal Credit.
Housing Benefit (£1380m) does not come out of the NI Fund. HMRC Child and Tax Credits (£1864m) also not from the NI Fund.
That being said, remember the NI fund is really a ticket system to show eligibility for a state pension. MS countries do not need a 'pot' of funding available.
The position in regards to the present UK State Pension is really no different to other National Insurance entitlements such as Unemployment Benefit (I know it doesn't really exist, but Scotland certainly needs to get back to a proper scheme - it was never means tested and it was no questions asked for 6 months so long as you had two years NI payments).
Scotland will take over all those in work entitlements and in just the same way it will take over the rUK State Pension. That will be for folk domiciled in Scotland on Indy Day, perhaps with some residency qualification such as 1 year prior to Indy, either in receipt of the rUK state pension at that point or via transfer of their NI record for those not yet getting a pension. As we plan to increase the SUP to the EU average you don't want to encourage of rush of pensioners from England moving north just before Indy Day in order to qualify for a higher Scottish Pension.
After Independence there are existing mechanisms for transferring state pension entitlements between some countries which we could negotiate with rUK (for example Scots moving to England could transfer into the rUK state pension and the same in the other direction with a net payment one way or the other depending on how many and how many years of entitlement). Otherwise standard rules would be Scotland pays out entitlements to the SUP regardless of where you now choose to live, and rUK pays out their entitlements even if the pensioner chooses to move to Scotland.