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Original poster

SNP stance on pensions

307 replies

Mountaingoat12 · 05/02/2022 20:15

The SNP - in all of its past independence propositions - have been wildly optimistic, but with their latest stance on pensions they have moved to actually gaslighting their supporters. I just cannot comprehend it.

In 2014 the independence white paper stated that after independence, Indy Scotland would pay Scottish pensions. They seem to now be saying that following independence the rest of the UK (I.e. England, Wales and Northern Ireland) will be responsible for paying Scottish pensions, which is just not at all true. Never has been, never will be. I find it just unfathomable. Trying to actually gaslight the electorate???

OP posts:
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Crowdfundingforcake · 13/02/2022 15:45

Alicesfavouritepen, it's not about nuking anyone, it's more the low level intimidations (the frequent flights of Russian military aircraft through UK - Scottish - airspace). I could see Scottish fishing boats being 'bothered' by Russian naval vessels, Russian vessels trespassing into Scottish waters etc - just harassments but unwelcome none the less.

alicesfavouritepen · 13/02/2022 15:49

@Lockdownbear

I'm deadly serious, if Scotland scraped its weapons, and someone, Russia, China, Islamic State, anyone else decided to attack. Who (if anyone) would help us?
Only 9 countries in the world have nuclear capability. We would just be in the same boat as the hundreds of other countries who have managed to cope fine without pointless nukes.
Rainbowshit · 13/02/2022 15:50

@alicesfavouritepen

*My job is to build and validate financial models that project financial scenarios. What I do is heavily scrutinised and audited because of the implications for our customers.

So I feel I'm in a better place than most to look at the financial case for independence.

There are many other scotsnet posters who work in such areas. Guess what? They also think the financial case doesn't stack up.

As far as I can see the independence side have a blogger, a cartographer and a laser guy.*

That sounds very impressive. You are clearly understandably proud of what sounds like a very high level position. You say you feel like you're in a better place than most to think that the financial case doesn't stack up. Can I ask why you think that is? Do you have access to government level information as per of your job or do you just google your research? Are you a specialist in the economies of countries, specifically those which are transitioning into independence, or are you just good with numbers?

As I've said on a previous post I'm very interested to see the economic case for independence that the SNP put forward and then I'm very much looking forward to a range of economic experts picking over them.

At the last indyref I bought a hard copy of the SNP's white paper with an open mind and went through the figures in great detail.

My job is setting assumptions for future costs. Two areas really stuck out to me as particularly ludicrous. The oil price and the costs of setting up a new country. It was downhill from there.

Both of which I was proved right about.

Given the financial situation post covid and brexit I think it's a fair assumption that we're starting from a worse position.

I am very much looking forward to when they come up with a new financial case and going through that. A more cynical person that I would suspect that given they're trying to wriggle out of paying pensions the figures are worse than in 2014. 🤔

alicesfavouritepen · 13/02/2022 16:04

Me too @Rainbowshit I'm also looking forward to it although am more hopeful than you that it will be positive! Smile

Maybe you will be one of the experts that the media will call upon to explore and comment on the numbers!

WouldBeGood · 13/02/2022 16:09

You don’t need to be a world renowned expert to see that independence will be an economic disaster in the short to medium term, if not long term too.

It’s also clear that the SNP knows this, so there are never any actual details set out. It’s all nebulous and to be decided”.

Lockdownbear · 13/02/2022 16:09

Yeah the Ukraine is coping wonderfully. Crimea in 2014, Ukraine 2022, who's next?

And yes it's the intimation, war ships in the Channel the other week, planes entering UK airspace.

alicesfavouritepen · 13/02/2022 16:10

@WouldBeGood

You don’t need to be a world renowned expert to see that independence will be an economic disaster in the short to medium term, if not long term too.

It’s also clear that the SNP knows this, so there are never any actual details set out. It’s all nebulous and to be decided”.

So do you think then that they won't set out an economic case for independence this time?
Rainbowshit · 13/02/2022 16:10

@alicesfavouritepen

Me too *@Rainbowshit* I'm also looking forward to it although am more hopeful than you that it will be positive! Smile

Maybe you will be one of the experts that the media will call upon to explore and comment on the numbers!

Ha ha ha, you have no idea how funny that is.

But seriously no I have no intention of exposing my family to the toxicity that will surround any future independence referendum.

Rainbowshit · 13/02/2022 16:13

@WouldBeGood

You don’t need to be a world renowned expert to see that independence will be an economic disaster in the short to medium term, if not long term too.

It’s also clear that the SNP knows this, so there are never any actual details set out. It’s all nebulous and to be decided”.

Even their own growth commission predicts a difficult ride in the short to medium term. If that's what they're using to persuade voters then I hate to think...
WouldBeGood · 13/02/2022 16:15

@alicesfavouritepen no, I don’t think so.

It should be out there now, to be honest. They’ve had years to tell us the plans and never do. I asked all these questions and just don’t get answers. I follow a lot of indy minded people to try to keep up, especially after Brexit. It has shown if anything does the perils of voting for something when no one really knows what it is.

Id genuinely like to see the plans. But get referred to stuff like the “Believe in Scotland” nonsense.

Rhannion · 13/02/2022 16:16

The gravy train that is the SNP/Greens, etc at Holyrood does not want really independence. They like being big fish in a small pond, it’s suits all of them with their expenses, perks etc.
Scotland can’t afford independence now, and frankly Scotland doesn’t deserve independence, under any party, if it’s government cannot and will not safeguard the rights of women and children here.

Scottishskifun · 13/02/2022 16:52

@alicesfavouritepen

Okay so you're an expert because you 'do numbers' but you reckon that the SNP have not bothered at all to consult anyone who also 'does numbers'. All of the supporters of independence are either numerically illiterate or in denial? I do find that peculiar tbh but I'm genuinely in awe of your confidence.
Actually when the SNP were challenged on some of their numbers and the financial case they responded with "well its a unknown element". They didn't actually answer the question. Some of their assumptions were way off as well including assuming the oil price would stay high. Its extremely volatile and it then crashed out reaching a low of circa 30 dollars a barrel at one point.

No I don't think they are numerically illiterate but I think several aspects are glossed over because there isn't a answer which is good.
The taxation is a prime example, the SNP are hardly going to stick in a white paper that they need to increase taxation significantly to cover a shortfall. It wouldn't go down well with voters so they simply hide behind its a unknown......

BTW whenever a university institution (so highly respected and experts in their fields) has challenged the numbers produced the SG has cried foul play. That's not me being confident of my own understanding its happened on several occasions. For example LSE only last year had a study which showed the financial implications are 2-3 times worse then brexit........SG cried foul to this unsurprisingly. It's not my confidence its actual studies.......

You can ask your friend of a friend to go over the study if you like it was produced Feb 2021.

Scottishskifun · 13/02/2022 16:56

Link if your interested www.lse.ac.uk/News/Latest-news-from-LSE/2021/a-Jan-21/Independence-would-hit-Scottish-economy-2-to-3-times-harder-than-Brexit

Each individual 2-3k worse off even if able to rejoin the EU.

Rainbowshit · 13/02/2022 16:56

@alicesfavouritepen

Me too *@Rainbowshit* I'm also looking forward to it although am more hopeful than you that it will be positive! Smile

Maybe you will be one of the experts that the media will call upon to explore and comment on the numbers!

Given that the Growth Commission report, which was written pre covid and Brexit, didn't exactly paint a rosy picture of Scotland's future post Indy, I'm actually really wondering how they can possibly paint a positive picture?

I wonder why the SNP tried to hastily bury it? 🤔

My favourite bit was the section that essentially said "Scotland would be too small to act as lender of last resort but that's ok as all financial services will move out of the country post Indy anyway"

Another baffling SNP moment like the fire doors and this pensions gaslighting that makes me wonder if they have a saboteur.

Original poster
Mountaingoat12 · 13/02/2022 17:09

I do think any Indy supporter is not very clever. Do the briefest amount of research and you see just what a shit-show indispensable will be.

OP posts:
Original poster
Mountaingoat12 · 13/02/2022 17:10

Independence

OP posts:
alicesfavouritepen · 13/02/2022 17:26

@Scottishskifun but we are dealing with elements of the unknown and while university experts are of course experts they are multiple voices with a plurality of opinions. Like I've said, I'll await some further information during the actual run up to a referendum with interest.

I wouldn't presume to suggest anything to her- she's far more intelligent and far better read than me. Smile

alicesfavouritepen · 13/02/2022 17:26

@Mountaingoat12

I do think any Indy supporter is not very clever. Do the briefest amount of research and you see just what a shit-show indispensable will be.
🤣
Rainbowshit · 13/02/2022 19:43

" Are you a specialist in the economies of countries, specifically those which are transitioning into independence," still laughing at this part of your post Alice. Do you actually think the SNP have a single one of these on their team? 😂😂😂

alicesfavouritepen · 13/02/2022 20:25

I have no idea @Rainbowshit but whether they do or they don't someone with that speciality will be well placed to comment on whatever it is the SNP propose and I'd be very interested to hear their views.

WouldBeGood · 13/02/2022 20:26

Are you saying you’ll vote for it anyway @alicesfavouritepen?

alicesfavouritepen · 13/02/2022 20:33

Lol! No. I'm saying, as I've now said numerous times on this thread and others, I'm interested to see what experts say about the economic case for independence when the SNP publish it. It's irrelevant if the SNP employ such people because they will be asked to weigh in on it anyway by the media one would hope. In fact it's probably better if the experts aren't employed by the SNP wouldn't you say?

WouldBeGood · 13/02/2022 20:34

Ok, so if the economic case is bad you would not vote for independence?

alicesfavouritepen · 13/02/2022 20:38

Correct.

WouldBeGood · 13/02/2022 20:42

Ok, that’s fair 😃