Just in tiers with it all now ....

[dancemom]

New Thread, same old situation....

I was joking last night about where we'd find be the nearest open nightclub come June. We decided on Carlisle!😂

@StatisticallyChallenged I agree with you. It makes no sense.

I don't even know how they have the cheek to say it's back to levels - they just mean there will be an ongoing framework.

I'm getting a bit baffled here.

What are the vast differences here between the English and Scottish plans? All four nations are rolling out at slightly different timelines, which is understandable. WM doesn't intend to fully ease restrictions until 21st June; judging by this thread you'd think he had thrown the doors open to all the pubs or something. I don't think there's as much difference as it looks.

And is nobody bothered about the modelling that suggests tens of thousands more deaths unless we take our time?

inews.co.uk/news/analysis/covid-vaccine-uk-government-easing-lockdown-plan-model-schedule-883023

The Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) document, using modelling by the University of Warwick and Imperial College London, says that even under the most optimistic set of assumptions, at least a further 30,000 Covid-19 deaths could occur.

Under some of the models, such as with a rapid relaxation of rules, further death figures would reach well over 100,000.

It continues: “There is the potential for a resurgence to result in a very large number of infections (third wave) if restrictions are lifted early or rapidly which would lead to large numbers of hospitalisations and deaths unless vaccine coverage is very high.

“If all restrictions were to be lifted by the start of May (over a period of around two months, starting in March), hospital occupancy would be highly likely to reach levels higher than at the peak in January 2021, even under optimistic assumptions around vaccine rollout.”

I'm honestly at a loss with what some of you expect. It's a global pandemic, we're so fucking lucky to be looking at vaccinations ending our situation, only a handful of countries are able to do that. But nobody is happy unless they can get what they individually want. I get that it's shit (obviously, I'm living it same as you) but...well, I'll stop there actually.

“What are the vast differences here between the English and Scottish plans? All four nations are rolling out at slightly different timelines, which is understandable. WM doesn't intend to fully ease restrictions until 21st June; judging by this thread you'd think he had thrown the doors open to all the pubs or something. I don't think there's as much difference as it looks.”

I think they’re much of a muchness as well...

@WannaCapybara but it appears our vaccinations don't matter. That is what is wrong with people. We have given up our lives, education and businesses to be told that actually even when you get both jags you will still be restricted?

The return to level 3 if we are good is just patronising bullshit. I appreciate that you are supportive of NS even if I don't understand why but today she needed to give this country hope not more doom and gloom.

All children are going back to school in England in 8th March, which is obviously a massive difference.

No levels n England. Clear plans of things opening all being well, with dates. Actual hope.

@WannaCapybara my 12 year old dd will be able to tell you one major difference for a start...

@fluffyugg

The framework says returning to 'at least level 3 with some adjustments' at least level 3, in 2 months time...this is what I cannot get my head round at all

I got this far into it and walked away. I'm not really arsed about lockdown but two months away for what? Feck all really.

The four people from two households is utterly laughable. Can go to church for Easter though, oh yay

What are the vast differences here between the English and Scottish plans

Well, England currently has a plan with indicative dates and a ‘restrictions stop here’ end-point. We can disagree about whether those indicative dates are good or bad but they’re there.

So what England’s got is a plan for returning to normality, and an assurance that we aren’t trying to eliminate covid. What Scotland’s got, currently, is a plan for returning to Level 3, and a big grey fuzzy area over what the end goal actually is.

Quite possibly they’ll both unfold at the same pace anyway, but people need hope and vision at this point, nor ‘check back in 3 weeks’.

@fluffyugg

The framework says returning to 'at least level 3 with some adjustments' at least level 3, in 2 months time...this is what I cannot get my head round at all

This is what I was saying, what was the point of lockdown and the vaccination program if we find ourselves in exactly the same place after it??

Is she saying that vaccinating all the priority groups has made no difference and we still have to be in lockdown?

🤯

@OldRailer

I was joking last night about where we'd find be the nearest open nightclub come June. We decided on Carlisle!😂

Don't laugh I can see Carlisle becoming a massive party town

I have the predictive powers. What can I say😉

Berwick could become a mini northern powerhouse at this rate too.

@GoldenOmber

What are the vast differences here between the English and Scottish plans

Well, England currently has a plan with indicative dates and a ‘restrictions stop here’ end-point. We can disagree about whether those indicative dates are good or bad but they’re there.

So what England’s got is a plan for returning to normality, and an assurance that we aren’t trying to eliminate covid. What Scotland’s got, currently, is a plan for returning to Level 3, and a big grey fuzzy area over what the end goal actually is.

Quite possibly they’ll both unfold at the same pace anyway, but people need hope and vision at this point, nor ‘check back in 3 weeks’.

What, and you think an endpoint before we can know anything about what the state of affairs at that point will be, is a good thing?

It sucks but we can't have certainty; anyone who claims we can Boris is a charlatan, just like the other times he's been a bullshitter. Schools are safe for one day only etc.

England has a plan to not be in significant restrictions. We have a plan to get to a revised (likely stricter) tier 3

I'd like to see the details of those models tbh. The 30k seems realistic - we're on a seven day average of 480 uk wide I think and whilst it is reducing I would expect it to flatten off as restrictions are lifted. The 100K sounds like a more extreme scenario. These have to be (and will have been) taken in to consideration but I wonder what the probability is they have attached to that scenario.

What, and you think an endpoint before we can know anything about what the state of affairs at that point will be, is a good thing?

I think it’s a good idea to have a plan that ends with ‘no legal limits on social restrictions’ rather than ‘you get to meet one other household outdoors in a garden’, yes.

Also in Aberdeenshire where cases are around 30 per 100000 - so really not understanding why we'd need to be in Level 3 in April if vaccinations continue as they are doing.
Dh got his appointment today for beginning of March - he's early 60s with a (very mild) underlying condition.
We have DMIL - late 70s in the south of England - not seen her for a year and elderly aunt with dementia which has worsened - not see her for a year.
Pretty hacked off with shifting goalposts and efforts to eliminate something which we will have to learn to live with. Will never vote SNP again

Um... the dates are there, they’re only about a week or so different from England’s.

It’s just phrased differently as review on this date hoping to move to... rather than this is the date we’re aiming for but we’ll review it... ok, there’s no - restrictions end on this date bit, but lets be honest that’s a stupid idea anyway given Boris was expecting restrictions gone before Christmas already.

I’m not an SNP supporter btw, and it does seem sometimes like differences are there just fir the sake of having differences - but what’s been announced isn’t hugely different to England’s plan, it’s more or less the same one with little tweaks to it.

And yes we CAN know some things about what the future will look like. First, because the restrictions that are in place are ultimately a political decision (it’s not like the virus gets a vote), and second, because we have very effective vaccines that are successfully reducing hospitalisations and deaths. Wibbling about how we might want to eliminate it (but not, but suppress it to lowest possible levels, but have international travel, but only when the pandemic is ‘under control’ globally, etc etc) is not what we need at this point.

@tabulahrasa the children are not in school - quite a massive difference surely?

[quote WouldBeGood]@tabulahrasa the children are not in school - quite a massive difference surely?[/quote]
Doing it over an extra 2 weeks isn’t what I’d call massive, no...

Um... the dates are there, they’re only about a week or so different from England’s.

Are there? I might be looking at the wrong document

There's only a couple of weeks, and for some kids, a couple of days difference in school return for the kids.

Chris Whitty thinks the opening of English schools as such is a mistake. What hope have folk got if he won't even listen to his scientists.

@WouldBeGood

All children are going back to school in England in 8th March, which is obviously a massive difference.

No levels n England. Clear plans of things opening all being well, with dates. Actual hope.

It’s a massive difference, as Scotland finish for summer holidays before England, so the bs spin of schools have gone back before England- they’re at exactly the same term point by March 8th, as they don’t finish until July🤷‍♀️