November Lockdown: Mibbes Aye Mibbes Naw

[BlueThursday]

Thread 3!!!!

I totally agree that it's annoying to go from lockdown light to full on lockdown. Edinburgh's numbers have been improving as well.

But the reality is that we are affected by the chaotic Westminster government that lurches from one policy to the next and u-turns every 5 minutes. They design the economic bailouts and we depend do on them. I wish they would have a more transparent governance system and communicate with the devolved regions better, but I guess a clown was elected so we have a circus!

Totally agree.

Whilst I’m not a great fan of the tier system, I much prefer it to a blanket full lockdown.

I’m in tier 3 although surrounded by areas teetering on tier 4 and that will be really tough if that does happen.

However I have family in tier 1.5 and facing a bleak enough winter as it is, winters are tough enough there as it is and really not remotely comparable to winter here in central belt, lockdown will have a huge impact on mental health there. As it is, they only have Christmas to look forward to albeit here in tier 3 but none of us care anymore about that.

@AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii

Feeling very sorry for all those businesses in England that have spent time and money making themselves Covid secure for nothing to just close again

This

Placemarking, will read thread later.

@WouldBeGood especially when the spread is unlikely to be happening in these places. My hairdresser for example had a huge salon and there has never been more than 3 people in at a time when before there could be 7 or 8 people in. A lot of these businesses won’t survive this time

I think she will follow the money. 🤦‍♀️

The screeching u-turns (which seem to be happening across the board) are infuriating, and costing businesses an absolute fortune. Tier 3 area restaurants here were just told they could open (albeit booze free and short hours) just two days ago. If Scotland now goes lockdown how much will that have cost those businesses?

And yes, the cost of complying with the ever changing, not especially clear and often impractical guidance is not much fun. As is the threat always hanging over you of potentially being shut down if you get it wrong, but with not enough to go on to know what's right.

@AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii it’s just so terrible

@StatisticallyChallenged really these businesses that have made themselves Covid secure to adhere with government guidance should be protected from closures now as they have done exactly what has been asked of them to allow them to reopen. I’d be absolutely furious if it was my business to be honest and a lot of these businesses will have self employed people in them, they’ll no doubt be shafted again

Yeah, self employed have been screwed, especially if you have a business that's only a few years old and has been growing - because the income figures are being calculated using averages going back to 2016. So if you say, started a business around then,let's say:

2016/17 made a loss because you set up (lots of self employed use cash basis accounting so set up expenses are against yr 1 income)
2017/18, £10k profit
2018/19 expand business at start of year (using a loan/personal credit card/savings, again not unusual for self employed), 20k profit - steady income started after expansion
2019/20 Steady trading, £40k profit

But when it comes to calculating the seiss grant, your average income would £10k, even though you've been making £40k profit for the last 18 months plus. This isn't an unusual profit growth profile really, loss at the start, small profit, then a decent income once established.

Can you imagine if the government had told employed people their furlough would be based on what you earned 4 years ago - tough shit if you were a student, in training, on mat leave...there'd have been uproar. But self employed people who tried to highlight problems just got accused of cooking their books and told it was just desserts for being tax dodgers. Often on MN

And that's before you consider that plenty of self employed people have business expenses that don't just vanish. Rent on premises, leased vehicles etc. There's also a missing month compared to furlough

Absolutely - dismal times. I suppose the thought to cling to is that govts are all trying to contain in November so that the festive period allows meeting your family.

I probably wouldn’t say it in non-anonymous media but I’d be “happy” to sacrifice Christmas this year if it meant businesses could reopen and survive.

Yes agree - just had an email from a highlands hotel saying they're opening Monday and closing for Christmas this year as they've had such a bucketful of stress (or words to that effect). Eek.

I doubt we are the majority though!

Whilst I've had my issues with the Scottish Government approach and the debacle about students, I think it's unfair to say NS is all about the money.

They need to balance all the health risks and the impact of poverty and mental health from job loss or an even greater economic crash has to be considered against the risks of Covid 19.

As I said I don't always agree with the decisions, but she's got a pig of a job to do and I appreciate the clear effort she's giving. I thought she was having a rest this weekend after robot boy presented at the press conference on Friday and then all this blew up.

I'm not sure I fully understand the furlough thing. The UK gov website says that that is a UK wide scheme, so businesses in Scotland can claim if they need to furlough staff, just like they could in the spring. Much though I strongly disagree with how BJ / RS claimed it was utterly unextendable when, for example Manchester and Liverpool needed it, and now, magically it is extended, 6 hours before it was due to stop, and after goodness knows how many people had already been made redundant... But it HAS been extended, so surely businesses can claim if they need, up until December. This is good for Scotland, no, and what NS was asking for in the summer? I don't understand why NS is now threatening level 4 lockdown in order that more Scottish businesses will need to claim? If businesses don't currently have to furlough anyone, because they can open and use their staff, they don't have to claim (or can claim less if businesses are open only part time/ part capacity). Am I missing something? I accept I may be.

? I don't understand why NS is now threatening level 4 lockdown in order that more Scottish businesses will need to claim? If businesses don't currently have to furlough anyone, because they can open and use their staff, they don't have to claim (or can claim less if businesses are open only part time/ part capacity). Am I missing something? I accept I may be.

I take it to mean that had she known that this extended furlough, full lockdown thingy was coming in England, then she is saying that she would have made different decisions, whatever those might be. Whether that's true or now who knows, but it fits with the "nasty England constraining my power as the first minister" rhetoric - every briefing i've seen in the last three weeks she's been on about fiscal constraints or borrowing power.

It's because we don't NEED to lockdown now to get case numbers down, but we may need to later. If the money won't be available later, then it's better to lockdown now and derive whatever benefits we can (numbers-wise) while keeping as many people being paid as possible.
At least that's my understanding, which may be totally wrong.

That's my interpretation. Full lockdown might be needed at some point. If it's a choice between certain November lockdown with furlough available, or say 80% chance of needing lockdown in December without furlough then it might make sense to go for November.

That's a lot of people who are probably about to lose the money they would have bought xmas presents with

I think there's too much emphasis on Xmas, we're not 12, we can all manage a small Xmas this year if it makes the numbers go down.
I'd much rather see the emphasis being on jobs and health rather than being able to have 14 at the dinner table.

We're a small family anyways but listening to my friends, they are quite glad the fuss and rigmarole has been taken out of it this year and they'll be having a small Xmas too.

MIL is determined to have us all up for xmas dinner. I am not keen.

I'd be quite happy just the three of us in our own home, maybe pop to grandparents at different times of the day

but having 10 from 3 households in the one house for dinner all at the same time, I'm not sure about.

Small Christmas is one thing, no travel or mixing households at all is different and will mean people being alone, the current English lockdown rules (if extended over xmas) would mean families couldn't meet at all.

There needs to be something in between.

it'll be a split - people who won't meet their family anyway as their parents are too terrified, people who feel they've made the sacrifices all year and deserve one day. .

I can't believe how far away from normality we still are, perhaps time to have more of a social media & total news break for me, I'm sure all the politicians around the world are genuinely doing their best with the rubbish hand they've got!

We're actually looking forward to a Christmas at home in our pj's... Not sure we've ever done that!