November Lockdown: Mibbes Aye Mibbes Naw

[BlueThursday]

Thread 3!!!!

'Thousands of jobs have been lost that didn't need to' - I've seen this on Twitter too, easy to say - I am sympathetic to this at face value but the honest answer is with no endgame in sight and structural changes in how people work happening at this point, we don't know if that's true or not.

The french, german etc etc govts who've had to launch increasing restrictions they were hoping to avoid are getting similar grief on Twitter.

But we do have the same furlough entitlement as England at the moment. So all the pubs closed and staff furloughed from restaurants/ gyms etc in level 2 and 3 areas (because of reduced opening hours) can claim the full 80%. We are "missing out" on any extra furlough pay from eg areas where hospitality is currently open, or where non essential retail would have to close. But any future furlough pay would also have to include the currently furloughed (assuming they would also remain closed in any lockdown!), so the bill for them would be double. So Scotland would effectively be getting more furlough money for equivalent staff in England, which I can see is something the UK wants to avoid. The other option could be that in any later lockdown, "new" furlough is paid at a different rate to "old" furlough, which moves onto whatever scheme the UK has moved onto by then. But that must be an absolute nightmare to administer, being distributed by area rather than sector and so on! I don't envy the designer of any treasury spreadsheet there...

New furlough rules say that employees must be on the payroll on the 30th October and don't need to have been on furlough before. Back to 80% pay, but with employers paying NI and pension contributions.

Also, I can't see hospitality being enamoured of the idea that their staff get less money (and they as employers need to pay more) because they've been more screwed over, for longer than other businesses in Scotland or the UK...

Nightclubs and soft play centres must be despairing...

They must have just updated that @Perihelion, i checked last night. Glad that they have changed it at least

I did read those new furlough rules on the BBC website rather than HMRC.

Figures, they're good at leaking/briefing stuff before there's proper guidance written up for businesses

Fucks sake.

She's most definitely angling for another lockdown. A bigger, better, more Scottish, safer lockdown.

Yes I thought so - I don't know if it's right or wrong and trying not to care before vaccine started rolling out mid dec but it's safer for her to go for it, in line with the tough stance she's adopted so far.

Hmm my linen cupboard is tidy and I've spent far too long mulling duvets and togs and checking what we've got, fear it's that kind of winter where we have to focus on the hygge and outdoor pursuits

Politically safer I mean, if she doesn't lock down she'll be the outlier in Europe and the UK and that's risky. Whereas she can lock down now and blame WM for whatever.

Oops. Wrong thread.

I watched the briefing and don't have a good feeling about it! But I can't see how it could possibly be justified to put eg Inverness from 1 - 4, BAM because of ££. Could she up the 3s to 4s and leave the rest of us be?

All this another lockdown talk is driving me mad today. I’m in a very small school and we have 2 teachers off today, even stricter requirements on playgrounds and bubbles too. I can’t social distance from the children as they are SEN.

@Judystilldreamsofhorses

I watched the briefing and don't have a good feeling about it! But I can't see how it could possibly be justified to put eg Inverness from 1 - 4, BAM because of ££. Could she up the 3s to 4s and leave the rest of us be?

Surely to God that'll be the most she'd do. I feel sick at the thought of going to 4 again, mind you. The thought of going to work every day then there being no leisure activities left to do is horrible. I'm just back from a walk in the rain with the DDs and am further convinced that walking in the rain is shit.

It’s very clear from the case figures that the problem is in Glasgow and Lanarkshire, where it has been for months. 70% of cases in these 2 regions today.

Businesses will be mightily pissed off if she shuts them again days after reopening all because she is scared to upset her support base in the west.

Furlough at 80% instead of 68% does not change the fact that cases are far lower than England across the majority of the country. There is no justification for many areas being in tier 3, never mind shutting them completely.

I know none of this is based on fairness, but I do feel like stamping my feet and having a bit of a tantrum about the general unfairness of it all.

Last week she introduced a level system. It seemed a bit rubbish that Edinburgh was put in at Level 3, but as the numbers continued to go down, the vague hope that it might be lifted. But now despite what we do or how we comply, we'll probably be plunged into another lockdown again because the UK government is prepared to pay for it ?

I know that it probably would have been difficult for SG to plan in advance, as it seems not even Boris knows what's going to come out of his mouth until he speaks, but honest to god the effort required to come up with the roadmap and the levels when the reality is the decision is at the whim of the central government coffers, what really is the point of a separate SG?

I know none of this is based on fairness, but I do feel like stamping my feet and having a bit of a tantrum about the general unfairness of it all.

I'll join you!

I didn't get a good or reassuring feeling about that at all. Oh feck.

I confess I spent quite a lot of yesterday afternoon fantasisingwondering about the feasibility of us moving back to England. Everything feels like it's falling apart up here. Though it's hardly milk and honey down there I know.

I agree rookiemere.

I think as none of this one is based on science, but on availability of money to cover it, that the lockdown will be nationwide.

I agree @WouldBeGood it will be lockdown for all in Scotland, blamed on blundering Boris as usual. Our numbers seem to be going down, it would have been nice to see if the new measures actually worked for a few days before jumping to the next tactic.

Similar tantrumming desires here - I'm tiredness of the way we are leaping from one thing to another, and realistically it will be costing lives.

Tbh the more I read and hear the less I'm convinced that this general approach works. It seems like there's two ways of handling it that make sort of sense

• Sweden(ish); basically let it happen with minimal restrictions. Ideally reduce exposure of vulnerability, make care homes safe, set up health service as best as possible with extra hospitals, bring back staff, hire from abroad, train up auxiliaries and support staff, set sensible limits for intervention. Not nice, high cases and deaths quite quickly, but so far better than us I believe so...
• NZ/China/insert others here ; drive it down very very low and then keep it there with border closures, strict quarantines etc.

We seem to have the worst of all worlds - big restrictions hammering the economy but timed badly, inefficient NHS, piss poor testing. And part of this is because there's isn't the political will to stick to anything. UK appears to have fucked it right up

My heart bleeds for all the places excitedly announcing reopening, with new ideas and brunches, all trying so bloody hard.

It all seems so unfair. Why don’t they narrow down where it’s spreading most and take evidence based measures, not hammering everyone?

There’s no consistency, just reaction. No plan. Unless it’s the secret vaccine!

This is referring to the Uk and governments as a whole, btw, not an SG bashing.

It would have been so much better if they had all worked together and created a clear consistent plan, National track and trace and financial support measures.

and now I'm off to school pick up wearing a mask outside, in a half empty playground where it is usually possible to stay 3-4 metres away from everyone. More virtue signalling ...

UK appears to have fucked it right up

Same applies to most of Europe unfortunately. Germany seem to be the exception and I suspect that is mainly because they started with so much better health infrastructure that they are essentially operating the Swedish approach but from a better starting position.