October lockdown?

[Goingdooolally]

Hi
I can’t see another thread on this and I think it’s more Scotland than general CV related.

Any thoughts on this? I’m a teacher and there’s been no word at work but I’m hoping to go away for a week in half term (west coast) and really really hoping lockdown doesn’t happen! Selfish I know, but we need a break!

Anyone got any views on the likelihood?

@Goingdooolally OP, I’m also West Coast and have work colleagues with children in local primary and secondary schools so received an email maybe 10 days or so ago now asking them to inform the school ASAP (there was definitely a set date given but not sure when it was) if their children did not have access to computer facilities at home to allow for remote learning. This was to allow the schools to gather what provisions they needed to send home with children I believe. From that I’d say there could definitely be something in the works!

I think SG and representatives are handling this appallingly. Jason Leitch and John Swinney acting's all cloak and dagger like it's the plot of a novel - how dare they? We're not schoolchildren waiting to follow instruction.

I hope it's not Thursday as I'll be past the cutoff for cancelling my holiday. I don't see how how it could work with areas having different holidays

And pupils and teachers have to wait for Swinney's BIG ANNOUNCEMENT on Tuesday. The SQA has been ready to talk about changes to courses for nearly a fortnight but Swinney required a delay. He wants to tell us that we have been teaching things pupils will no longer need. And he wants to tell us 3 days before half term. And, about 3 months into courses that, for many, started during lockdown.

Spin. Spin. Spin. And no concern about letting us know.

And now we might have to be locked up again but they won't tell us because they get to keep all the secrets.

@aquamarine1

I think SG and representatives are handling this appallingly. Jason Leitch and John Swinney acting's all cloak and dagger like it's the plot of a novel - how dare they? We're not schoolchildren waiting to follow instruction.

Yes to this! It’s the knowingness and dark hints that are really getting on my tits

well swinney did some press saying a circuit breaker wasn't on the cards so I'm sure it's now a dead cert! The circuit breaker during half term always fell down with the dates not lining up. A 2 week circuit breaker when everyone is back would be more uniform...let's hope the numbers turn for the better soon.

@anon444877 yes, it was Swinney denying it that really put the wind up me! 😂

I know more people who have booked a holiday for October than any other time this year. There are going to be so many seriously pissed off people if they cancel all our plans now. It is not going to win the SNP any votes. And I know its not political but we all know it is on some level. And it would be an economic disaster for the hospitality sector to lose its last big 2 weeks of business before the winter. Ik ow several small hotel and self catering ow ers who are losing sleep over then though of having to cancel a huge chunk of their October business. The decision has to consider economics too as much as public health at this point.

So I'm leaning towards something at the end of October, beginning of November. Which would miss 2 weeks of school for everyone rather than 0, 1 or 2 depending on where you live.

I think we are looking at more restrictions soon, sadly.

I read on the BBC news website that today 13% of tests were positive, up from 5% a week or two ago.

Apparently the WHO advises that more than 5% is a cause for concern.

It's a fine line to tread between restrictions, the economy, the NHS & our civil liberties.

It's so easy to say "ah, but the NHS wasn't overwhelmed earlier in the year" or "hospital admissions/deaths are low just now". Hindsight is the most exact science on earth.

None of us know how this is going to pan out. The government is erring on the side of caution.

As an NHS worker, winter fills me with dread. But this year, how do we tell the difference between a covid & non-covid cough at A&E? A raised temperature? We are already frazzled & stressed. We worry about what we are facing. Morale is low as we have had to reconfigure services, staff are struggling with balancing home & work. Our waiting lists are climbing. We feel we are not delivering the care we would like. We don't have access to enough IT equipment for everyone who needs it. Junior staff aren't getting enough supervision due to social distancing. I could go on......

It's so easy to be critical with hindsight & looking at things from the outside.

Yes, but we know the testing is shit, the positive tests aren't necessarily cases as they detect traces of dead virus, so I think the number of positives going up is flawed.

We are also currently testing swathes of people who have no symptoms but are being tested as they've had close contact so the numbers are skewed as we are testing people more likely to have a positive test rather than randoms with a cold.

There’s going to be a lot of seriously hacked off people if this affects October half term. If they land it on us. Of course we know we’re in a pandemic etc... but we all need something to look forward you and everyone I know is planning a few nights away. We couldn’t actually get anywhere on the West Coast where we wanted as it was all fully booked! This was 5 weeks ago, we booked for the week from the 16th October. I know there’s bigger things at play but it will be crap for morale.

Thank you @BloodyMiserable for all that you do. As a secondary school teacher, I’m one step behind you but feel the stress every day.

If they do this it’s going to finish off many businesses

With the associated human consequences

I hope they don’t do this. DSis is a teacher in a secondary school for children with global learning difficulties and she is exhausted. Obviously distancing isn’t possible with her pupils as they need lots of physical support. Plus her school’s class sizes have, unbelievably, increased since the start of the term as a local behavioural unit was shut down (well done there SNP). She was meant to be going to the States for the October break but when that had to be cancelled her boyfriend booked them a few nights in Edinburgh self catering. She’s been clinging onto that for ages.

It seems hard to see how effective it would be with different schools and areas having different dates. We do have some modest cancellable plans - had to move shared family holiday again and that's now in for summer 2021 - but if it's genuinely about keeping schools open,then I'd reluctantly support it.

However unless they close down most venues it's hard to see how it will have any difference on the numbers. We got the Edinburgh bus home after a meal out with friends- as we're now not allowed to drive and see them in their house - and as we headed home about 10, the bus was totally rammed with windows shut and lots of young people not wearing their masks properly.

If it is a full lockdown it's hard to see how things can be reopened after two weeks as many restaurants and pubs probably won't believe the duration and will shut up in some cases for good.

Also numbers in Edinburgh have rocketed since they encouraged students to come. Entirely predictable and not the students fault, but if they are doing it locally means everyone in Edinburgh will be penalised for a stupid decision that they didn't make.

A lot of people in Scotland are no longer taking the rules seriously as my FB feed would imply, plus an invite for doggo to go frolic with his 11 siblings and owners just outside of Glasgow. A friend came yesterday and she sat in the conservatory with the doors open at 2 metres- I'm not making her sit outside when I sat across the table of a restaurant with her the night before.

If they do want a lockdown they can no longer assume blind public compliance. People are weary and need proper explanations of what is planned and the rationale.

@rookiemere that makes depressing reading. I’m also in Edinburgh and am definitely following the rules! I do find it frustrating when people complain about why they can meet a friend in a restaurant but not at home - it’s because people don’t socially distance at home (generally) also less hand hygiene.

I’m doing my bit for the local economy with meeting friends in cafes and restaurants 😁

Would it not be better if they just told us now what the plan is?

I agree too @rookiemere that the rationale needs explaining too.

@Goingdooolally I've always been a rule follower and in truth it pains me not to be scrupulously following the rules, no matter how nonsensical they appear.

But not being able to see the same friend in a well ventilated conservatory maintaining social distance, that I saw the night before in a busy restaurant at around 1 metres distance and having to use public transport with poorly ventilated packed bus to get there and back is a step too far even for me.

I cannot control the actions of the government and nor will I deliberately break the rules if I feel by doing so there is a genuine increase in the chance of me passing on coronavirus, but I'm not a fool and I can see lots of contradictions in whats allowed and whats not simply based on financial transactions.

I'm really sure I saw on bbc news website last night a quoted comment from Jason Leitch saying that it was too late now to put in a circuit breaker as the R number is now too high, and when I went back to the page maybe an hour later the comment had been removed. I'm sure I'm not imagining it 😳 Unless his words were misconstrued or misinterpreted and it was taken down due to that.
But, it feels like kicking the can down the road. I feel more and more now that Nicola is letting politics play a part now given that she didn't lock down Glasgow and Lanarkshire's pubs the way she did with Aberdeen. So disappointed if this is the case.

I'm also feeling increasingly annoyed with the cloak and dagger approach of dropping hints instead of transparent and early information about restrictions and planned dates etc.
I think a lot of us are getting angry and fed up now and the Margaret Ferrier business is not helping.

@rookiemere - Yes well of course they’re trying to keep the economy going hence allowing eating out etc...I don’t think the rules are contradictory- I can see the rationale behind them. Economy vs public health tightrope.

I see your point on the well ventilated 2m distancing conservatory - the thing is most people wouldn’t distance! That’s why they need the rules.

@deaddreams totally agree. Just get on with it!!! It all feels a bit ridiculous.

I saw that NS had re-tweeted further restrictions in Paris and Ireland which doesn’t bode well. It feels like a threat which we can do nothing about, the numbers will go up and it’s all the public’s fault. We’ve lived with these restrictions all year and it feels like what we are doing is not worth while. I agree that there needs to be clearer limits on numbers and more of a plan so that we all know what to expect a bit more, like in Madrid where there were limits put on ICU capacity and so many cases per 100000 before limits are introduced. Random rules, lockdowns and limits on where we can and can’t meet does not work. We have been treated like children since the start of the pandemic by both governments. I worry that whatever new restrictions are introduced paints the government into a corner and then nothing will be opened up again, and my particular worry is that if they go down the blended learning or shutting schools then they will stay this way for a long long time. No number of cases is low enough for the Scottish government, and I believe no R number will be low enough for them either. I have already said on another thread I also feel like keeping families apart for a whole winter is cruel. The threats of lockdowns has led our family to make up our own “rules” so we can keep each other safe and all last the winter without being overwhelmingly lonely. We were strict rule followers during the first lockdown but just won’t be kept apart now. There has to be some kind of a balance and the constant threat of restrictions and lockdowns doesn’t keep me on the side of the government. The clear reasoning, the end date of restrictions and a clear model of what will happen to the economy/ the NHS should be made available to the public. I agree with a previous poster about blind compliance, I think the only people that will blindly comply are the people that feel SNP can do no wrong so don’t argue with your betters, which is quite scary to see.

The main issue for me now is a complete lack of trust. If I'm told a two week lockdown is necessary as a circuit breaker to keep schools open, I'm not sure I'd necessarily believe it.

To be fair I suppose my belief is not required and ultimately they can do what they want and I can't change that.