General Election - June 8th

[TinfoilHattie]

Another vote.

Can totally understand why May has made this move and it is very interersting from a Scottish perspective. Less about Brexit, more about another independence referendum.

I am very torn on who to vote for. It was exceptionally close between SNP and Lib Dem here last time round so it will probably be Lib Dem, but if polls show more chance of the Conservatives or Labour getting the SNP MP out on his ear I'd vote for either of those too. (V unlikely that Labour would be in that position though). Wouldn't ever vote Green.

Of course it wouldn't be plain sailing at first, there is a lot to sort out and organise but once that is done we could do well.

It would be very rough for a long time. There's more than a little reorganisation to do - everything from governmental structure and legislation to the postal service will have to be built from the ground up. Research funding that is currently mostly from UK funding councils will disappear, and with it a lot of our science and tech sector. Then there's our currency and how that will be underwritten, the huge hole in the public finances, and an economy on the brink of recession to fix somehow. (We don't know how, because the SNP either hasn't a clue or hasn't deigned to tell us plebs about it.) If we're going to re-join the EU (and I'm not sure what the plan is this week) then we'll be required to allow free movement, which will mean barriers with the rest of the UK (trade and/or physical), where most of our trade goes and where many (most?) of us have family. This would be so much more complicated than the UK leaving the EU - as part of the UK, Scotland is completely integrated into every institution.

It will be very painful for a long time and for what? Freedom? We already have the power to control pretty much everything except foreign affairs and defence. Do you really hate the Tories so much you'd send us into poverty? When the Tory government is a temporary problem and there's no going back from independence?

And we don't have to pay for the house of lords/London and south of England infrastructure/wars we don't agree with/trident etc etc.

What about the extra institutions we would have to pay for? The government system needs an overhaul as it lacks checks and balances - the house of Lords does serve a purpose. All of the UK government departments that we currently depend upon, like the bank of England, Royal Mail, RCUK councils, all of the advisory committees, specialist medical facilities for infectious diseases etc. etc. would need to be recreated in an independent Scotland.

As I understand it, research funding is shot in the UK also because of brexit. Building everything we need from the ground up will be worth it and will create jobs in itself. It needs to be done. Scotland is completely buggered if we do not choose independence.

I do hate the Tories and I believe they are worse for ordinary people than Scottish independence.

Temporary problem, Hmmmm. And Labour are getting to be indistinguishable from them in any case. I don't want to become a fawning lap dog of the USA and UK politics looks to be becoming similar to theirs in some ways too.

Also an independent Scotland has a chance of being in the EU. This would be an advantage particularly if rUK is out.

And why is being in the EU better for Scotland than being in the UK? So much better, in fact, that it's worth leaving the UK (which is currently supporting us and will continue to do so) for the mere chance of getting back into the EU? It's a smaller market for us, and it certainly doesn't offer 'independence' as we'd have less control over our laws than being in the UK after Brexit. It's also not like we're going to be offered the level of deal the UK had - if we're accepted at all, we'll be offered what other small countries are. These small countries who are increasingly unhappy with the way the EU conducts business.

And where does the money come from for thee new Scottish funding councils? See the evidence for me points to independence being far worse than the tories for ordinary Scots. The SNP are already letting down Scottish children, why would I want to give them more power?

Scotland will be the fawning lapdog of the IMF instead - so much better!

As I understand it, research funding is shot in the UK also because of brexit.

You are misinformed on this. Brexit may well have an impact on research, but EU funding represents only 16% of research income for British universities (2.6% of their overall income), and as net contributors we put a lot of this into the pot to start with. The vast majority of research funding in British universities comes from UK research councils.

fullfact.org/education/how-much-money-do-british-universities-get-eu/

It would be totally wrong to suggest that being an independent nation in the EU surrenders any where near as much control as being a subservient "nation" as part of the UK - examples of this would be being able to set your own Corporation tax rates or being able to decide if you want Nuclear weapons stationed close to most of Scotland's population.

Why on earth would ROI not veto Scotland rejoining the EU? Also there is very little chance the rEU would jeopardise the chance of a sensible Brexit deal with rUK by offering this. That is before you even start to consider Spain etc's objections.

Even the SNP are backing away from the possibility of rejoining the EU. I wonder what their 30%+ Brexit supporters will do? If I were them I would vote anything but SNP this time round to secure Brexit. Then in 5-10 years I would be looking at an Out/Out Referendum with so much co-operation from the UK that it might very well start to look like the "Federal" solution but with the symbolism of being a separate country.

I do hate the Tories and I believe they are worse for ordinary people than Scottish independence.

Personally, I'm more concerned with giving my kids the best future I can (in terms of educational opportunities and job prospects) than in indulging my hatred for particular politicians. Particularly when that indulgence has such destructive consequences.

I believe the conservatives in Scotland would sign the NHS's death warrant, as is happening in England.

Nyx the EU is already starting to look at harmonising tax rates and if the finances go wrong they will be opposing Greek style austerity before we know it. Ireland is still recovering and that is only with bilateral UK support while the EU seeks to attack its corporation tax structure.

As for Nuclear weapons I assume you are still happy for Scotland to benefit from rUK defences as proposed in Indyref1 in which case all that happens is we still get the risks but no share in the defence budget spending or decision making.

opposing should be imposing

What are you saying about Ireland? I haven't heard a thing about them wanting to block Scotland from joining the EU. Really?

They haven't said it but they already have the competitive advantage and are seeking to relocate any lost City jobs to Dublin where they already have strong financial links. There is no way they would let Edinburgh muscle in.

They won't come out and say it for the same reason they keep their cards very close re N Ireland.

"As for Nuclear weapons I assume you are still happy for Scotland to benefit from rUK defences as proposed in Indyref1 in which case all that happens is we still get the risks but no share in the defence budget spending or decision making."

What was proposed was to get rid of trident ASAP. Various proposals were made that were to take place over a10 year transition period.

If trident was to be kept in the Clyde for any length of time after independence I am sure rUK would be charged handsomely for the privilege.

Howabout, if that were the case the media would be gloating about it already. Scotland and Ireland have a good relationship.

FB is of course full of bonkers hyperbole already. Apparently Sarah Smiths report yesterday was 'BBC bias' because she used the word 'independence' too often, thus inducing voter fatigue.

Fuck me. Really? That theory will prove interesting come the next indyref. 'listen lads, whatever you do, don't mention independence'. Er ok, Nicola.

I'll be voting labour. My MP looks (and sounds) like an elderly muppet left out in the rain but he's the only labour MP in Scotland and I dont want to live in a one party state. Nor do I want to say yes to indyref 2, which Sturgeon herself has stated general elections are for.

I predict the SNP losing quite a few seats. Possibly even a couple to the Tories.

Sarah Smith had to inject some sort of balance after Lesley Riddoch speaking for ALL Scottish "folk". She couldn't even give a decent definition of scunnered.

Morris even I would vote for Murray and I am a JC fan.

Even the National are more or less conceding Berwickshire to the Tories. No idea what the tactical Tory vote will do in East Renf but it won't help the SNP like last time.

You're probably right about the seats Morris, it will be interesting to see what happens. Talk about living in interesting times! I would be glad not to. It's all going crazy. I'm losing my ability to be surprised.

Nyx they have a good relationship. Why ruin it by getting into competition with each other?

The Press like a story and Neverendum makes plenty of print. Scottish Independence is the best insurance for lots of jobs for Scottish journalists. The inbuilt bias is never to point out the blindingly obvious.

Remember last time when FB was awash with rumours that you absolutely shouldn't cross the box in pencil, because The Tories / MI5 / The Russians had a team of elves somewhere rubbing out pencil marks and replacing them with crosses in different boxes?

Wonder what it will be this time? If the SNP do lose some seats - and I really, really hope they do - how long before the loony fringe of the Nats blame someone, anyone or anything else for their failure?

Looking at Google, Edinburgh South saw a huge swing to SNP away from the libdems last time. Murray won by a fag paper. Slightly concerned the libdems claw back and split the unionist vote.

Are the libdems unionist?

Yes the LibDems are Unionist, but tellingly you had to ask. Political expediency is their core manifesto pledge. That said I have high hopes for them in the North East.

Yes, Lib Dems are Unionist but not as shouty about it as the Conservatives. They are pro-EU as well.

There are some VERY close seats in Scotland which SNP could very well lose.

In Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk they only have 328 majority over the Conservatives. That will probably turn blue.

Mundell is on less than 800 majority in Dumfriesshire, will be a top SNP target but COnservatives will probably retain it.

Dunbartonshire East I'm really hoping will be Lib Dem again. Labour no hope here, only worry is that both Lib Dems and Tories will increase their vote at the expense of Labour and let SNP back in.

Bit worried about Alistair Carmichael in Orkney & Shetland - there was a big campaign against him after the last general election where he was taken to court by some Yessers - he;s on a very slim majority and those issues may be enough for SNP to take that one.

Renfrewshire East is another potential Tory target, but they'd need to persuade a fair few Labour supporters as well as SNP ones.

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

Has all sorts of predictions - not sure what the assumptions and predictions are based on, but gives an idea about the majorities and main targets for the parties.

lost city jobs - that'll be the impact of Brexit, but presumably you don't mind that all those who think Brexit is going to be great?