General Election - June 8th

[TinfoilHattie]

Another vote.

Can totally understand why May has made this move and it is very interersting from a Scottish perspective. Less about Brexit, more about another independence referendum.

I am very torn on who to vote for. It was exceptionally close between SNP and Lib Dem here last time round so it will probably be Lib Dem, but if polls show more chance of the Conservatives or Labour getting the SNP MP out on his ear I'd vote for either of those too. (V unlikely that Labour would be in that position though). Wouldn't ever vote Green.

this snap election will help the SNP and the tories, both extremists in their own way. If we had a progressive central alliance with a chance of getting elected it'd be so much better, Scotland is better off in the union and the collapse of oil prices and huge deficit have shown this since 2014. The pro union groups would be pushing at an open door if we had a labour government - the SNP wouldn't be able to grandstand about being a leftist party then.

The trouble with increasing tax is the mobile people go away. Several software developers I know have moved from Scotland, most to England but one to Spain because it doesn't matter where they are. Governments don't seem to have grasped that hi-tech jobs don't need to be in any one place. You can hold a meeting on skype, you write code and commit it to a Git server - who knows where.

Nolottery- oil prices can rise again and the industry could be better managed anyway. The deficit has occurred within the union and actually helps to persuade me that it's time Scotland held the reins of its own finances. If Scotland's finances are in bad shape that is how they are under Westminster. Making our own decisions on how we spend our own money seems a wise choice to me.

I agree it is a shame that Labour in Scotland are now just in a laughable position. It is their own fault though.

Nyx it isn't a good idea to put all your eggs in one basket...whether oil prices rise or not - how well the industry is managed is irrelevant. It is a global product - we have no control over the price...we just have to accept it.
The fact that Scotland is running at a massive deficit -wouldn't meet the criteria to join the EU is a massive wake up call - that we need a more diverse income stream - and preferably one we have more control over - to survive as an independent country....can you imagine the mess we would be in now if Yes had won in Indy1...
Under the Barnett formula we should be suffering less austerity than the rest of the UK ....that wouldn't be the case if we were independent. Things really would be grim ...

I only mentioned oil because a previous poster had. Scotland has other income streams, we have the potential to do very well. Various EU voices are sending welcoming messages re Scotland, haven't you heard?

Professor Richard Murphy: "The message then is a simple one: when people say Scotland is in financial trouble, or running a deficit, or anything else, ask them how they know. If they say it’s the GERS (Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland) report, tell them to read the home page for that report where it is quite candid about the fact that the data in it is estimated. If they retort that all financial data includes some estimates, feel free to agree, and then point out that does not usually mean that 25 of the 26 income figures in a set of accounts are estimates extrapolated from data for the UK as a whole and some consumer surveys. And yet that is the case for GERS. Estimates may be a part of financial life but this is ridiculous: what this really says, yet again, is that there is no financial data for Scotland."

the SNP said they based their figures on the GERS report and they are happy to accept them as fact - that was in their last election manifesto.

ill be voting my usual way - hopefully our trouser dropping, cheating shagger of an MP will be ousted but he had a huge majority last time so I doubt it, im damned if im gonna vote for him though. But saying that this was before he was caught with his pants down and thrown out by his wife and he was ousted from his cozy 4 some with NS and her DH so maybe things will change this time...

Various EU voices are sending welcoming messages re Scotland

About 50 non-entity MSPs.

Scotland would survive but it would be poor. Everything people say about a hard Brexit applies to Scotland as well, plus an exit from the UK. If you think rUK is at the back discussing trade deals where do you think Scotland would be?

A new currency, no central bank, punitive loans, a huge national debt and third rate politicians. The SNP had to decline some of the powers they "won" what would they do with all of them?

I don't understand why Scotland would be so fecking poor. We have an abundance of natural resources. We have pretty good exports. Our gin industry is getting to be impressive, not to mention our whisky. Obviously if I mention the O-word I will be jumped on as super naive and stupid because since it's Scotland, striking oil is a curse...but it is there and I refuse to write it off. Yes, debts would need to be dealt with but nobody mentions the share of UK assets Scotland would keep in an independence deal. Plus we would almost certainly not be paying for Trident. That in itself is worth it for me, Trident looms large in my fears. It makes us a target in my opinion but I will put my tinfoil hat away since that's not what we're discussing. The fact that it's eye-wateringly expensive is important though. And it doesn't create that many jobs, local jobs, not the amount of jobs that could be created for people in our currently thriving industries which include food & drink, construction, textiles, tourism, financial services, the games industry, etc etc. I think at this point in the UK insanity Scotland has a very very good chance of turning ourselves around if we were independent and started making our own choices. Particularly if we were in the EU. Which no matter what you sneer about non-entity MSPs, isn't outwith the realms of possibility.

Why in the name of all that is good does Teresa May think the union is so precious if Scotland is such a poor noose around its throat? I don't believe for one second that the Tories will continue the Barnett payments for long as they are at the moment. I keep being told that we are being propped up by Barnett. Perhaps we are, currently. However I blame a lot of Scotland's 'debt' on things that we wouldn't pay for if independent. Scotland has been propping up Westminster for years with oil money while our industries were dismantled.

That's true, Nyx. If the Tories go for their low-tax, minimal welfare state post-Brexit UK, shackled to Trump's US (which seems to be the way they are headed) then there would be a massive reduction in Barnett money anyway - it is based on public spending, so if spending on education, NHS, welfare etc reduces, then so does Barnett.

In 2014, I think the UK could offer security and status quo. That's been ripped up. There is no status quo, there is only having a say in what kind of change you want.

Personally I favour independence but I think focusing on this issue for this election is a huge mistake. Just because we might get another referendum in the future doesn't necessarily mean that people will go for it, but we could be royally screwed by a hard Brexit.

What worries me is that if the SNP lose any seats to the tories then May will use that to say that the people of Scotland agree with her and then go on to disregard Scotland in the Brexit negotiations.

Plus, I'm a bit pissed off that it looks like the police are looking in to David Mundell and 11 other Tory MPs election campaign for possible fraud and not much is being made of this in the press.

Yes, misskelly, this tory election fraud whitewash is so frustrating.

Scotland will be disregarded in the Brexit negotiations in any case, except as regards what of ours can be given away (eg fishing rights as in the past) to secure agreement on deals for financial services in London etc.

If the SNP lose even one seat, the media will start yelling that it's all over for Sturgeon, yada yada, as they always do. Huge blow and all that. It's par for the course.

oooh Nyx if we're going to argue about inaccurate estimates, I think you may lose that one! Ahem, oil prices?

Economics - an economy dependent on a single crop - i.e. oil wealth is not a strong bet, oil prices have tanked once, they can tank again. And let's not even get into the finite nature of it.

The fact is we need to see a concrete set of policies explaining where the money to replace the barnett formula comes from, explaining to the Scottish people how much more tax they'll have to pay for that.

But you won't give us that will you, easier to sneer at estimates and say 'Scotland, Strong, vote for freedom' because it's not in any way verifiable.

I'm in Tech. I could do my job from anywhere at all. I'm only in Scotland because I love it here.

do you know what the lovely thing is Nyx and OOAOML, the SNP are completely free to put up income tax in the case that the money they get from barnett goes down.

It's not going to go down to nothing, and you're conjecturing that it's going to go down at all.

Obviously you don't feel like this but if I really cared about providing a better life for the poor, I'd take the free money from the UK taxpayers, and then raise income taxes on my Scottish tax base to the level I thought would provide them the best life we could.

I wouldn't vote to toss the money away for vague notions of being in control...you're trying to get out of the UK at precisely the point it is MASSIVELY in our favour to be in it for nebulous notions which don't stack up against hard cash realities.

I don't understand why some are so convinced that the UK is going to hell in a handcart because of Brexit, but that Scotland, which is also going to go through Brexit, would come out stronger than the UK after going through the even bigger, additional, upset of independence. It's all very well using positive language about natural resources and great people etc., but those resources and that skills base are much smaller than those of the UK as a whole, and we have the additional problem of higher welfare costs and a much weaker economy. If the shock of Brexit is going to floor the (much stronger) UK, then how on earth is a more vulnerable independent Scotland going to come out of Brexit + the even greater shock of leaving the UK in a good place? This makes absolutely no sense!! Wishful thinking doesn't pay the bills.

Nolottery did you read my earlier post where I said I don't understand why people say Scotland would be so poor? Oil is not the only economic egg in our basket. Tired of the same old statements again and again. We do raise money currently, and pass it down to Westminster. Barnett is not simply a flipping hand out. Tell me why Scotland couldn't be as successful (at least) as other countries with similar populations currently doing well. What do we not have that they do? Why are we uniquely unfitted to be independent? We are not. We have been told we are for many many years. Of course it wouldn't be plain sailing at first, there is a lot to sort out and organize but once that is done we could do well. Plus, brexit is a complete nightmare and upheaval in itself and the status quo is no longer an option. The SNP are preparing fresh plans which will be told to us when they are ready. Then you can argue and rip them to shreds but lets wait and see what they are. We will have a choice at least.

I mean, 'free money from the UK'? Seriously? Lol

Barnett is not a hand out, it's an insurance policy, Scotland paid in previously, and it is now richly paying out. Tell me where the money to replace Barnett is actually coming from - I'm tired of the same statements about Scotland being alright in the end. It's not alright for house prices to halve, it's not alright to be facing a tax hike of £500/month for most people. Might be 'alright in the end' but why on earth would anyone with any sense vote for that?

it is free money at this point Nyx - it's extra money right now that is not raised from Scottish tax payers. It's a subsidy from the UK to Scotland. The best analogy is an insurance policy for oil, as I said.

Youcannot- those resources and that skills base are much smaller than those of the UK as a whole - but our population is also smaller. And we don't have to pay for the house of lords/London and south of England infrastructure/wars we don't agree with/trident etc etc. We could keep our own house. Also an independent Scotland has a chance of being in the EU. This would be an advantage particularly if rUK is out. How do other small countries manage without the Union we have? The same way we will.

What tax hike of £500/month??

Richly paying out. Uh huh. Richly indeed.

you clearly don't care about real consequences (tax hikes, job losses) for people of independence as in your panglossian world view they'll all be short term, despite Scotland being in recession in the next quarter - we'll await the detailed plans of where the money is coming from.