Second referendum announced!

[Isadora2007]

😳

Will your vote change next time?

A plague on both your houses to quote the bard.

The SNP lost - convincingly, for a whole host of reasons.

They then said if the UK voted Brexit they would try again.

We had the referendum because Call Me Dave was terrified of UKIP. We did vote out, they are trying again. Therefore, this opportunism has been caused by those people who voted Brexit.

Equally, the timing that Sturgeon wants stinks to high heaven. She wants the independence referendum before the Scottish people can know the outcome of negotiations. Appalling.

My god, how the people in this country have not yet risen up to kick out the absolute self-centred arseholes in both parliaments is beyond me.

Totally agree Latin.

I don't understand why anyone would choose to take a leap into the dark by voting for independence before they even know where the land lies. We're out of the EU either way as there is nothing to suggest we could simply carry on with the same terms. Perhaps she's afraid that Brexit might not be the apocalypse that is often predicted, and that the UK might get a decent deal after all, making it less likely that Scots would choose to go it alone?

If we have to go through this again, I hope TM at least sets the timing to be after Brexit so that we can make an informed choice. After all, isn't that what NS says she wants?

The thing is how do the economics of this work? - Scotland currently does not make enough money to sustain itself independently.?

No first time and still no. Economic argument sways it for me every time. Still no answer about currency and absolutely no certainty that an independent Scotland would be able to stay in the EU and/ or Single Market. Sturgeon and co need to get on and do the day job; sort out education, NHS and Police for starters. They also need to use the powers they have eg Welfare. All they have done so far is make thousands of Scots pay more tax.

A truly altruistic approach to Scottish independence would use the next 10 - 15 years to invest massively in Scottish education and business, get the economy going robustly

With what, though? Scotland can't opt out of Conservative austerity - it gets the money it gets, and there's only so far you can stretch that. Can't opt out of Brexit, can't opt in to the single market... I agree the economic case for independence looks shaky at the moment, but the economic case for staying in the union is a total mess.

Wonder if we'll see that devo-max option on the ballot this time?

Was a no last time and an even stronger no this time.

I wonder if the economic calculations have been/will be done on the back of a fag packet again...

I'm actually beginning to hate living in the UK...as in I'm giving serious consideration to what the options might be in another country

Yes last time, Yes again (assuming the question is the same!)

Re the EU, no, there is no guarantee we'll still be members/be able to rejoin but in contrast to pp the noises I'm hearing are very positive. The Spanish said just at the weekend (and not for the first time) that they have no objections to us being EU members, as the Catalonia situation is constitutionally quite different from ours. As we would remain net contributors and are fully EU compliant already, there's no reason for France or anyone else to object, and if Theresa carries on with her threats to undercut the EU and become a tax haven of sorts, I can see there would be a certain degree of joy for the EU to welcome us out of spite!

We cannot join the Euro, we do not meet the conditions - most importantly, that our own currency (which we don't have) must be in the ERM for at least two years without problems. (There is no requirement to even join the ERM as EU members, btw.) We will have to agree to do so at some point, but that point may be far off in the future or never arrive. There are precedents for this... We could, of course, use the Euro, or any other tradeable currency - £, $, ¥, and there my iPad runs out of symbols.

Re oil, prices are actually starting to recover and new fields to the north and north west are starting to be opened, but I think renewables are the future. We are lucky to have access to massive wind and, more particularly, wave power, and without WM cutting investments we can properly develop these sectors.

As for the argument that we'd be ruled by Germany instead of WM, that doesn't really stand up. We've just seen every amendment to the Scotland Bill proposed by Scottish MPs kicked back, and every proposal to give us a differentiated Brexit ignored. The Supreme Court ruled recently that Sewell is a convention and not legally-binding, WM could close Holyrood without even a vote. We have no meaningful voice in WM, and EVEL reduces it even further.

The EU don't force us to have WMD in our back garden, 30 miles from our biggest population centre. EU don't take us into illegal wars. EU isn't cutting benefits to our most vulnerable citizens - we could set our own rates. EU don't take all our money and give us some back, and would even let us have a say in how much we contribute to the EU budgets. EU don't impose laws on us, as EU members, we'd have the same veto as any other member country.

We don't have to ask the EU's permission to leave...

Scotland has a weaker Gross domestic product (GDP) than Greece. GDP being an indicator of the health of a countrys economy. The heart may say yes to independence, and Nicola Sturgeons political ambitions are saying yes, but the head and people living in Scotland should say no.

Voted yes and would do so again. Not Scottish so national pride didn't come

The thing is how do the economics of this work? - Scotland currently does not make enough money to sustain itself independently.?

My understanding is that the whole thing hinges on how you value oil- it's currently $50 a barrel but has been as low as $10 and as high as $160, so, basically, it's anyone's guess. It also depends on how much you say it costs to get out- because if it costs $20 to extract and the oil price is $19, then the oil is worth $0, not $19.

Can we change the question to 'should Scotland remain in the UK or leave' so that Yessers have to campaign for leave? :)

As we would remain net contributors and are fully EU compliant already

I think there are serious question marks over this statement. We currently don't meet the economic requirements, and, given our very fragile economy, how could we be net contributors? Surely we'd be a drain on the EU, and I'm not at all convinced that as whole they'd be in any hurry to have us.

EU don't impose laws on us, as EU members, we'd have the same veto as any other member country.

Of course the EU imposes laws/regulations onto it's member states. That was the crux of the Leave campaign. We would have a vote in those laws of course (as we currently do in the UK) but we'd go from being 9% of the population (at WM) to less than 1% (in the EU) and our influence would be even more diluted. I don't understand that argument at all.

Was no, still no, will always be no. Sick to the back teeth of it all, to be honest.

Whoops, hit post too soon.
Voted yes and would do so again. Not Scottish so national pride didn't come into it, it seemed like a chance to break away from the Toryness of Westminster, and have a crack at a socialist government (which obviously depends on how we vote in the future, but historically a left-wing government seems likely.)

No last time and even stronger no this time.

With what, though? Scotland can't opt out of Conservative austerity - it gets the money it gets, and there's only so far you can stretch that.

I don't begin to have all the answers, 53rdAndBird but my understanding from analysis of the figures at the last referendum were that in more years than not, Scotland receives more money from Westminster from the Barnett formula than it generates through tax and oil revenues. So it would get less money as an independent country.

Additionally, the Scottish government has tax-raising powers that they haven't currently used - though I think this is changing at the moment.

They've got much more chance of creating a sound economy whilst having some support from being part of the UK than if they cut all ties in a premature independence move.

If the SNP put their energies into making Scottish education great again(!) and encouraging enterprise, they would have more chance of making headway than if having to deal with setting up as an independent country, negotiating membership of the EU etc. It's just more uncertainty and diversion.

We need statisticallychallenged, she is very good with all the figures whereas I am a bit woolly .

I think another referendum is a terrible waste or money.

Scotland will be out the EU either way.

I think the Merkel comments are interestingly xenophobic. There is a difference between retained control over a state (Westminster over Scotland) and pooled sovereignty. Which is what the EU is.

No.10 Downing Streets response to this announcement actually shows this in action. No.10 says no referendum (and it cant be done until Westminster approves) whereas the Brexit referendum did not need EU approval. Its about self-determination, not Germen women.

Since the current UK immigration policy is basically xenophobic, nativist and often racist I would hope that Scotland adopts a different approach if they vote Yes. I live in Dublin now as I made the mistake of marrying a foreigner and the UK Home Office really doesnt like that sort of thing.

Though I might get back to Scotland for an actual vote though.

I was Yes last time and I'm even more of a Yes this time.

Of course the EU don't force laws upon us! It may have been central to the Leave campaign (like buses and £350m for the NHS... ) but an iScotland would have the same veto as the other 28 countries. In the UK, we're simply outvoted at WM.

But it's not on the cards yet- What will happen if Westminster blocks it? Do you think NS will keep pushing or wait until after the next GE?

Of course the EU don't force laws upon us! It may have been central to the Leave campaign (like buses and £350m for the NHS... ) but an iScotland would have the same veto as the other 28 countries. In the UK, we're simply outvoted at WM.

Leaving aside the lies told on both sides of the EU campaign, this is simply not how the EU works. Very few areas of EU legislation require a unanimous vote, with at least 80% of new legislation being passed by majority vote. There is no power of veto over these areas, which are wide ranging and include commercial and monetary policies, environment, industry, energy, justice and so on. The long list is found in the like below, as well as an explanation of what areas are subject to veto.

www.eu-facts.org.uk/arguments-by-topic/can-the-uk-veto-new-eu-laws/

If we object to being outvoted at WM with 9% of the seats (and there is an argument for that), then surely we should object to being outvoted in Brussels, with 1% of the seats.

Yes then. Yes now.

You can't just veto everything though.

Tbh, if what matters above everything else to Scotland is being able to decide more for themselves within Scotland, then independence is the way to go. But there are other considerations, like financial viability. I think Scotland saying "we'd all be rich if it wasn't for those meddling kids" is somewhat wide of the mark.

Westminster shouldn't block it, it's not up to them. The other home nations shouldn't pay for the referendum either though, the SNP should need to justify the cost to the Scottish people, it is up to the Scottish people to accept and challenge as they see fit.