Prepping for a pandemic...7

[wheresmymojo]

7th thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

Anxiety

As Preppers we tend to look at a reasonable worst case scenario to plan for. Everyone is welcome on the thread but if you find it makes you anxious be kind to yourself and think about sticking to once daily updates from the BBC or similar

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Prepping Scenarios

Most of us are prepping for the following situations:

• Wanting to stay indoors for 2-4 weeks + in case of a local outbreak / schools being closed

• Potentially being ill with a flu type illness lasting 2-3 weeks with one or more of the household having the illness

• Having to take a family member to hospital for COVID or any other reason during an outbreak

Prepping Items

Threads 1&2 have lists of things to think about to prep for the first scenario as do the Brexit prepping threads.

Main differences/additions to something like the Brexit list are:

• Face masks if you can get them for any trips you have to make in public during an outbreak. These don't offer full protection and cannot be 100% relied upon but are probably better than nothing if you make sure you wear them correctly and dispose of them correctly. N95 masks are best but expensive and harder to wear, surgical face masks are second best. Dust masks are not going to help.

• Hand sanitiser needs to be 60% or more alcohol content

• Dettol / bleach / Miltons to disinfect. Not all disinfectants work but these three do

• Plenty of at home/over counter treatments for flu type symptoms should you need to treat at home

• Tissues (lots of) should you catch the virus

• Think about meals that are easy to cook and eat should you be ill or both parents be ill at the same time (soup for example)

• For a potential hospital trip you may want to prep a 'go bag' should you need to take someone to hospital with the virus (or anything else) during an outbreak. See Thread 1&2 for examples of what people are packing

• Frequent and thorough hand washing, not touching your face and social distancing (no handshakes, hugs, etc) are some of the most effective ways to stay virus free

Other Thoughts

India have announced that they are stopping exports of some antibiotics, hormone treatments and vitamin supplements as they rely on China for raw materials.

Many factories that supplied fibre for use in sanitary towels and tampons are being diverted to manufacture face masks. Consider stocking up or changing to sustainable items (cloth STs, mooncup, period pants)

Self isolation can be imposed because you have come from an affected area, you don’t necessarily need to have symptoms.
Eg ironically if you arrive in my city in China from Italy or South Korea you need to self isolate. This means start at home and you have food delivered.

This is all a bit much for me, now. I’m doing my weekly grocery shop this evening and have meal planned so I need minimal stuff for the week and can use the rest of my budget to top up my stash.

DP wants to take DS to Liverpool tomorrow because there’s a big ship in. I desperately want to say no because of the amount of people and the fact they’re going on the train, but DP still thinks ‘it’ is nothing to worry about.

Does anyone else think that Monday is far far too late for a cobra meeting?? I almost expect there to be a huge surge in confirmed numbers by this time next week.

What would you be getting for last minute preps now from Lidl?

I have just completed my prepping task for the day and taken out a life insurance policy for myself. DH is a high earner and has always been insured to the hilt but as I earn very little we haven't bothered for me before now. However, his crazy working hours mean that childcare costs would be nanny level for a few years if I wasn't around so it's madness really not to insure for that (virus or not).

One less thing to worry about.

@justchecking1
Exactly
In my compound (China)it was made clear to all of us that not complying with the regulations would result in legal consequences.

In North Korea a man was shot for breaking quarantine! Unlikely to happen here obviously,

love the way you said unlikely to happen here. Not *wo';t happen here. Who knows wft is going to happen in the world at the moment!

*won't

Have actually reinstalled the Mumsnet app as a result of this thread, came across it via Google. First confirmed case in Wales just now according to the Guardian, which has come in via Italy. Am half prepped since Brexit but will be going out today to pick up essential meds.

Am deliberately trying to stay away from the crazier types of speculation as to spread and origin, but have a toddler and want to be prepared for the prospect of quarantine in whatever form that takes here.

Thanks for the thread and to everyone participating - helps to know there are others of like mind!

The WHO on the ground investigation team in China have released their report if anyone is interested

www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

I think I read that you risk a 3 month prison sentence if you leave locked down areas without special permission in Italy. Something like that.

I mentioned this on an earlier thread but I am aware of a case where the returnee from china (young professional person) was told to self isolate and stay in their house and said "you can't make me" and PHE stepped in very swiftly and very firmly and said "oh yes we can".

Yes, who knows what will happen.
At the end of January I was at home in China, preparing to go on holiday to Australia. Now I am back in the uk with dd, school closed, dh working in HK and no flights back to my city...

I read the new legislation the other day. In the UK we can be forceably quarantined.

@AlohaMolly

If all items to make meals, medication & cleaning supplies were complete, my last minute preps would be treats. Don't forget treats for your pets if you have any too

Indeed, some people have been critical of the heavy handed methods taken by the Chinese, but wouldn’t you want those who have been quarantined or in self isolation to stay put?

I am at the lack of communication via Boris Johnson about cv19. Although i have nasty sneaky thoughts of he probably is rubbing his hands with glee at the though of knocking off the elderly and disabled. That would answer a few issues for his governance .

I agree. Of all the parties you would want in power at the time of a health crisis, a hard right one is the worst because, of course they don't care about the most vulnerable in society.

I've heard it said today that older, vulnerable people will be denied treatment in favour of those 'more likely to recover' what a nice way to treat those who have paid taxes all their life

My last minute preps would be long life milk, porridge oats, rice, tinned beans and probably tuna. And otc medication. Toiletries too. We've got enough to eat comfortably for a good month or so, and I reckon if SHTF then rice would keep starvation at bay a little longer.
Does depend a lot on what you already have in though. Have you looked through the list threads?

I'm obviously being dim, as I don't really get the problem with what @actiongirl1978 is planning, unless I've misread.

I mean, as I understand it, someone self-isolating could go into their own garden, yes? So, if she actually owned the land on which she's planning to walk her dog, that woud be OK too, surely? In which case, what's the problem with walking on land where she knows she won't see anyone else?

I get that the virus is airborne to some (small) extent, but what she's proposing is far less likely to result in infecting someone else than if she lived in a terraced house and went into her garden to hang out washing. Which in itself would be unlikely. Even if she actually had it.

Or am I talking bollocks?

@AlohaMolly ^^

Looking forward to the 2pm update. I think we are prepared.... but starting to think about the length of time this will impact and wondering if I need more! Not that I can fit it anywhere

On the jumping to dogs point earlier an expert has said it would be astonishing if the virus had jumped species again and so its likely to just be an error or as a result of environmental contamination.

Indeed, some people have been critical of the heavy handed methods taken by the Chinese, but wouldn’t you want those who have been quarantined or in self isolation to stay put?

My parents have a friend who is incredibly irresponsible and is currently trying to book another holiday to Japan because the one she was supposed to go on (the much talked about cruise ship) was cancelled. It's people like her who spread the disease.

Maybe start thinking of ways you could exercise your dog at home? Not sure how/if that would work but you can't break isolation procedures. Playing fetch with a tennis ball thrown down the stairs is a good energy burner for smaller dogs for example. Not ideal, but these would be extraordinary times.

@RedLentilYellowLentil
The key point is that the rules are not open to interpretation.
X walks the dog, y thinks i’ll Just pop to the shop as nobody around, z goes to the cash point...etc
China has been incredibly tough in the measures taken and this seems to be working.

In which case, what's the problem with walking on land where she knows she won't see anyone

She doesn't know that. She cannot possibly know that. Plus PHE hasn't the time to police everyone and accompany them around just in case. Who's to say whether she's nipping out (presumably walking past other houses and people in the process) to walk the dog in an isolated field or whether she's nipping to tesco. People cannot be trusted and cannot possibly know when they might encounter others and so you have to have firm and clear rules. You stay at home.

actiongirl perhaps if your dog must be walked you could have a plan with a friend with a dog that you look after each others dogs in the event of self isolation?

If I had 3 weeks of food but wasn't able to leave the house after 3 weeks for any reason, what would I do? I know in China they have deliveries but I don't know if I see the Chinese methods working here in the UK. Guess we'll just have to wait and find out.