Importance of Gorton and Denton

[Acommonreader]

I don’t want to get into the candidates or parties here! Please can someone tell me why huge attention is being given to this by election ?
I know that it’s been Labour for a long time but it seems to be publicised as hugely important to all concerned. Is it just a potential indication of future voting or something else?
I have been looking for information but it’s all about the candidates rather than the wider significance of the results beyond the victor. I’m genuinely just try to understand the wider picture. Thanks

We are by far not the worst country in Europe for youth unemployment. It is not a Labour created issue.

1. Finland – ~10.2 %

2. Spain – ~10.0 %

3. Sweden – ~9.0 %

4. France – ~7.7 %

5. Latvia – ~7.0 %

6. Lithuania – ~6.6 %

7. Estonia – ~6.3 %

8. Belgium – ~6.4 %

1. Romania – ~6.0 %

10. Italy – ~5.6 %

11. United Kingdom – ~5.2 % (ONS data Q4 2025)

12. Germany – ~3.8 %

Not sure why your figures don’t tally with ONS in the quote but yes it’s a Labour issue.

They are in power and have chosen the tax on jobs and policy impacting that age group. Why not look at Labour’s failings on this?

A different interpretation is that unemployment was artificially low in the decade from 2015. It certainly looks that way in the context of the figures from 1979 to 2015. Thatcher didn’t manage to bring them down, the unemployment rate more than doubled under her government.

ETA I’ve quoted the wrong post. Sorry. 😱

Because ONS are UK stats. not European countries.
about:blank Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the national statistical institute of the United Kingdom, so the core statistics it produces itself are focused on the UK covering the whole UK or its constituent countries (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) and smaller UK areas (local authorities, regions, etc.). That’s what its main mandate is under UK law.

Definition of unemployed is much tighter nowadays. (I wonder why.)

This is a bit like being asked ' what is the significance of who wins the world cup' without being allowed to talk about the teams.
I hope you don't mind me commenting. But it's a bit of a struggle to keep within the remit of the post and answer the question at the same time.
Are you someone who tries not to be political?
There are many women who go round telling other women not to be political. And by that they mean you can talk about the local charity cafe or the lack of hairdressers but don't get into parties and all that messy business.
The significance of this election is it's an indication of how far Reform are being emboldened to gain power through triggering racism, misogyny basically bringing out the worst in communities. You can't say that without saying it. The flip side being how badly people are affected by cost of living, and how little Reform are actually going to do about that. . Reforms sinister agenda is a major part of the answer to your question.
Why wouldn't you want people to say that-

Thank you for perfectly illustrating why I asked the question in the way I did.
I asked a genuine question about the machine of politics and how it works.
I did not request a bunfight about the parties or candidates. Such views are readily available as I stated.
I did not need a patronising lecture about the shit show that is Reform. But you gave me one anyway.
Thanks to everyone else who actually read my question and respectfully answered . I appreciate you all sharing your knowledge.

Your figures below in the 18.01 post did you quote overall unemployment figures rather than youth unemployment as in the post? None look correct, France is higher than that. I mean they all will be out but I looked up that one.

Ok Well it sounds like you know more than most about the machine of politics.

Our rate of youth unemployment is increasing very quickly, thats the worrying thing.

This is interesting. Gorton and Denton odds were 12/1 last week for Labour. Now 6/1.

There must be a lot of people out there suddenly betting on Labour to win. Why, I wonder?

(I did see a post from which said word is from journalists/MPs that Labour is expected to hold the seat).

The Labour vote is holding up on the doorstep. We have decades of data.

Every time the greens open their mouths they lose votes and they don’t have a decent doorstep game, blue haired posh southern students are not great advocates for a very working class area with a high level of BAME residents. The greens do not have data as they have never bothered to campaign there. Same with reform.

if Angeliki loses then it will not be her fault. I really feel for her - she’s going a great job and is a really credible candidate.

Idk it seems to be countered by Labour’s woeful SM campaign which seems to over focus on Greens and Reform rather than their positives.

If she does lose I’m sure more eyes will be on Starmer over it anyway.

Thanks patooties, really good to learn what is happening on the ground.

I mean it’s from a Labour campaigner.

I know. The other poster I mentioned isn't though, I don't think? The change in odds means there are increasing numbers of bets being placed on Labour to win. Something must be driving that.

Anyway, just over a week to go and we'll find out.

You seem to really want an argument with me - continuously ‘picking me up’ on things. please stop - me ‘posting on Mumsnet’ makes zero difference to the eventual outcome in g and d - it’s my opinion. I’m allowed one.

I have made the point multiple times over multiple threads that this is merely my opinion- I am an elected member and a seasoned campaigner, i I have previously worked for the party and have campaigned for many years at by elections (always difficult mid term of an unpopular government).

I have told people on this thread my experience of being on the doorsteps - which is ‘the vote is holding up’ much better than I thought it would.

My ‘being a Labour person’ should not render my posts null.

The Greens and Reform trying to organise a hustings without the Labour candidate was interesting.

Seems they are BOTH trying to make it look like it’s a two horse race. What have they learned recently that’s made them panic about Labour?

I might be wrong - but like I say - this ain’t my first rodeo and the Labour data looks good.

Is this the only election that we have had since the GE? That makes it important.
The 'excitement' about Andy Burnham brought it a lot of attention.
I saw some information on YouTube that Unemployment has increased under every Labour Government since WW2. Is this true?

No not at all, some areas had local elections last year and there was a parliamentary byelection back in May as well.

No.

Unemployment nearly doubled while Thatcher was in power.

Thanks Patooties, your posts are really informative.

I wondered if you have seen this tweet from Goodwin? Seems to me he wants to stir things up/intimidate people.

Precisely -note how she doesn’t dare mention Goodwin 😂

How odd of you to drag up a post from nearly three weeks ago in order to sneer at a poster.

I don't get your point, anyway. Why does patooties need to mention that vile twat's name in her post of 1/2/26? She doesn't mention Hannah Spencer by name either. Or the Tory, whose name I can't remember.