Importance of Gorton and Denton

[Acommonreader]

I don’t want to get into the candidates or parties here! Please can someone tell me why huge attention is being given to this by election ?
I know that it’s been Labour for a long time but it seems to be publicised as hugely important to all concerned. Is it just a potential indication of future voting or something else?
I have been looking for information but it’s all about the candidates rather than the wider significance of the results beyond the victor. I’m genuinely just try to understand the wider picture. Thanks

People are shifting from Labour to Reform. More than any other crossing from one party to another rn. That part of the post doesn’t hold up.

You've clearly missed the point that I was making.

The people who are switching are not the ones who base their voting intentions on core values. I have already acknowledged that there are other voters who vote according to their perceived self interest and whatever their particular priorities are at any given time. They are the people who are switching - not the people who are driven by deeply held convictions about what's right and what's wrong.

Obviously you don’t know their intentions or reasoning, I’m not sure why you think you would know this and to post it with such certainty.

All you can know is how many are switching and rn Labour are shedding voters.

Tbf, you didn't say core values, you referred to voting based on moral values vs self interest which infers some sort of judgement.

I'm a floating voter because I don't feel a need to show allegiance to any political party or want to base my self worth on bring perceived in a certain 'good' way. I did that when I was younger but dont feel the need now.

I've voted for all parties across the spectrum including Greens, Labour, Liberal Dem, Independent and Tory. Some I voted for because I believed they were the best option, others I voted for because they were the least worse.

I've never voted Reform and don't plan to, but if the only alternative was Zack Polanskis Greens then I would consider it depending on the local candidate.

I don't need to know their reasoning. It is simply basic common sense that vast swathes of the population won't suddenly be ripping up everything they have ever believed in and adopting a set of values that are the polar opposite of what they previously held dear!

I don’t agree with how you frame it. I think your posts are true for you but that’s it.

I did say moral values. And I gave the example of moving from left to the far right being unlikely, because that was the specific example that started the discussion. However, I didn't say that someone couldn't equally have moral values that would prevent them from moving from the far right to the left. It was you that made the assumption that moral values = left leaning. I made no comment on that.

Saying that I base my voting intentions on my moral values is simply a statement of fact. If that fact makes you uncomfortable, then so be it.

It is also a statement of fact that some people base their voting intentions on self interest - equally, that could apply to left or right. I am not criticising the people who vote for what matters to them at the time. I'm just saying that it's much easier to switch between different political extremes if you don't see it as a moral judgement.

With respect, your logic is flawed.

It ignores the scale and depth of voter dissatisfaction with this government, and secondly, it fails to take into account tactical voting.

You don't have to agree with me. I understand that people who don't see voting as a moral question will probably never understand why it is that for many of us.

No I’m going further I think the way you apply moral isn’t the case. I also don’t agree with the selfish not selfish interpretation you use.

Not at all. There is nothing remotely incompatible with what I've said and the fact that people are dissatisfied or that they might vote tactically.

If your vote is driven by moral values, you may well vote tactically to get a particular party out, or indeed to prevent another party from getting in. But it makes no sense that you would vote tactically for a party that is the moral antithesis of everything that you believe in. What would be the point?

Tactical voting can be moral driven. Look at Caerphilly. The electorate there was pissed off with Labour. However, people voted tactically to ensure their dissatisfaction with Labour didn't result in a win for Reform.

Such is the level of despair with the party that would ordinarily represent one’s values, perhaps.

If, as is likely, many voted tactically to keep the Tories out in July 24 - they would have been voting for a party which is the moral antithesis, as you put it.

We shall ignore adherence (or lack thereof) to manifesto pledges, for a moment.

If someone has deeply held left wing values, it doesn't matter how much despair they may feel with the Labour Party. Voting for a far right party is never going to feel like the answer.

If you can't comprehend that, then perhaps you are one of those people who doesn't view political choices as moral ones. Or perhaps you have a very different set of values.

Well, I certainly struggle with the notion of morality applying to a profoundly immoral government.

As I say, (and ignoring your use of ‘far right’), if voters are prepared to put aside their ‘morality’ to vote for Reform over Labour - that’s an utterly damning indictment of this government.

We can continue to go round in circles, but one thing is clear - a significant number of Labour voters currently intend to vote Reform at the next GE.

What do you think are the reasons for that tectonic shift?

So you agree with unemployment benefit only lasting for 4 months if you lose your job? Do you know how difficult it is for over 50s to get back into employment?

Are you also comfortable with the NHS being sold off and an insurance based healthcare system being brought in?

How do you feel about childless people paying more tax than those with children?

People are also shifting in droves from Reform to Restore due to the intake of former Tories into the party.

Are they?

Can you share the data, please?

Thanks

Oh gosh, we are going round in circles!

I'm not denying that there are a significant number of people who previously voted Labour and are now going to vote for Reform. That isn't in question.

I am merely saying that those people clearly weren't motivated to vote Labour previously because of deeply held left wing values that were core to their very beings, because it simply isn't credible that people who did hold such values would suddenly jump to Reform. They might abandon Labour, absolutely. But they wouldn't suddenly pivot to Reform as an alternative.

So the floating voters who move between polar opposite parties in this way are clearly making their decisions in different ways which have nothing to do with core values. I honestly don't know what is so difficult to understand about this.

I don’t think you’ve got this right. It might apply to you but you’re extrapolating without knowing.

This was after only 24 hours of launching. If you look on Reddit it seems quite feasible (unfortunately).

So the floating voters who move between polar opposite parties in this way are clearly making their decisions in different ways which have nothing to do with core values. I honestly don't know what is so difficult to understand about this.

How can you possibly make such an assertion? A trifle presumptuous to profess to understand a voter’s motives, no? You also ignore the ‘evolution’, for want of a better word, in policy. Take immigration, Labour appear to have moved to the right - dragged kicking and screaming, admittedly.

I find your assumptions interesting - as in reductive. And it partly explains Brexit, and the election of Trump.

By all means, have the last word if you wish.

Well, the key take away from that is that Restore are on the right of Reform.

If anything, that spells danger for Labour.

It applies to loads of people.

Not everyone, obviously. But that was actually the entire point of my argument in the first place. Some people vote on the basis of deeply held values or convictions which are core to who they are. Others don't perceive it as a moral choice.

I think most of you are getting hung up on the perception that I'm calling left wing positions "moral" and right wing positions "immoral". And you're so desperate to take that imagined argument down that you're failing to engage with my actual argument that people don't generally tend to abandon their very deeply held convictions overnight - regardless of whether the starting point is left or right. It does happen occasionally, of course, but it's rare that someone suddenly pivots to a completely different value system that is diametrically opposed to everything that they previously believed in.

No I just don’t think you’ve got it right. I’m not offended or ‘desperate’ as you put it, I just think you’ve created a framing that doesn’t apply.

In addition I agree with pp that it’s reductive and presumptuous.