Importance of Gorton and Denton

[Acommonreader]

I don’t want to get into the candidates or parties here! Please can someone tell me why huge attention is being given to this by election ?
I know that it’s been Labour for a long time but it seems to be publicised as hugely important to all concerned. Is it just a potential indication of future voting or something else?
I have been looking for information but it’s all about the candidates rather than the wider significance of the results beyond the victor. I’m genuinely just try to understand the wider picture. Thanks

The op has specified she doesn't want to get into the candidates or parties. So most likely people are trying not to mention them.
I'm personally finding this discussion quite Interesting- like I've not seen an election where the reference point is the bookies before? Is that perhaps the significance?
I am waiting for the You Gov poll from Nadhom.Zahawis old company- which might influence people how to tactically vote
or can it be trusted now he's in bed ne if the parties?
What does an absence of polls signify?
So.many questions.

Find Out Now ran a poll but it was only of 143 people, so a bit meaningless. But the findings were:

Reform UK: 36%
Labour Party: 33%
Green Party: 21%
Conservative Party: 8%
Liberal Democrats: 3%
Other: 0%

Every election I've followed references the betting odds market.

There have also been countless polls on this by election, the reason there is a difference between the polls and the betting odds is that the betting market takes tactical voting into consideration.

Bookies’ odds are usually a more accurate indicator than polls. They’ve got a vested interest in calling it right.

Yes but I wonder what are they basing it on other than the number of people who betted?

It was worse than that - it was the Thatcher era which made unemployment and a life on benefits socially acceptable. As a child my parents' generation and community would bend over backwards for someone hitting hard times but had no time for those choosing idleness - feckless men in particular were condemned socially for not living up to their responsibilities. That was enough to keep all but total losers doing their best for their families.

The wholesale destruction of huge sectors of work in such a short period of time meant no realistic prospect of work in many areas, even for the strivers - many WC communities were left workless and hopeless. (I’m sure some think they should have all have hopped on their bikes). In that climate there is no realistic hope, unemployment/underemployment and dependency became the norm.

The comments often seen here along the lines of “not worth taking the job as its not a lot more than benefits” are the direct inheritance of that era's neo liberal abandoning of the working classes to the market. Ditto the trashing of apprenticeship schemes as a consequence of “deregulation of labour” in that era.

Bullseye 🎯

Well you’re getting increasing youth employment with Labour now, so best to look at the present and understand the issues they’re facing today.

= Unemployment. Unfortunately for them. Already threads on stressed young adult dcs on here. Showing how it’s impacting their MH.

And not learn from history? The history which made the “benefits culture” are part of society?

Yes I can see why some are so keen to gloss over that destructive effect on society but you can’t deal with today’s problems without understanding and acknowledging previous disastrous mistakes.

What do you want to do about benefits culture? I might not disagree.

I would imagine it’s data - we have decades of data - it’s whether they will be inspired to vote at all. that’s the GTVO operation that Reform want 1000 volunteers for.
Everyone who’s previously polled as Labour will be squeezed by us - same goes for every party.
Quite a lot of vocal FB people - from my own experience are not on the electoral register and/or don’t vote.
The Greens and Reform making it look like a 2 horse race is an interesting tactic - and to my mind their own data is starting to look shaky - it is in their best interests to act as thought Labour are nowhere near.
The reality being - they won it with a huge majority, it is and has been a solid Labour seat for years. vote Green - get reform.

The boundary changes have left a weird constituency- its mainly students, some posh lefties, Muslim families and white working class around Burnage. The tacking on of Denton is the only way Reform are getting a sniff.

I am a Labour person - I’m not claiming to know anything. Nobody is more surprised than I am that this looks so close. I thought we’d be dead in the water. I am not sure this is the referendum on Keir’s leadership people are making it out to be.

I don’t think Keir will be the pm in a year but he will not resign after this. If Labour does end up coming through the middle then all bets are off.

He will potentially have to go after the locals - but I suspect will usher through the changes/ reforms to benefits and any other unpopular bits of legislation before he goes letting the ‘new’ leader start afresh and ‘bed in’ after he’s fone the dirty work . That’s the kind of public servant he is.

Well if you increase taxation on people working and increase benefits for people not working, then don't be surprised when there are less people are in work.

Its not complicated.

😂😂😂😂😂😂’that’s the kind of public servant he is’ 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Thanks for the laugh that has cheered up my day -he so isn’t 😂😂😂

Well he is certainly more of a public servant than Farage or breast hypnotist Polanski don't you think?

Anyone seen this one?!

Oh dear.

Fake news, apparently. Although it is very believable.

Where did you see that? On the actual Telegraph app?

This is false. Are you a supporter of Advance UK? Their candidate has been spreading this image.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/fact-checked-post-claiming-reform-33456292

Are you a supporter of Advance UK?

I'd be very surprised if BB was from what I have seen of their posts on this thread. Are you a Reform supporter?

No, I'm a conservative. Why?

It just shows how easy it is for disinformation to spread if it hits the right note for someone.

Plus I’m not sure why that question based on @TheNuthatchpost

Well, it might not be true. But what it tells us is...

Nail on the head!!!