Importance of Gorton and Denton

[Acommonreader]

I don’t want to get into the candidates or parties here! Please can someone tell me why huge attention is being given to this by election ?
I know that it’s been Labour for a long time but it seems to be publicised as hugely important to all concerned. Is it just a potential indication of future voting or something else?
I have been looking for information but it’s all about the candidates rather than the wider significance of the results beyond the victor. I’m genuinely just try to understand the wider picture. Thanks

maybe they will. I am unsure which bit you refer to Labour also doing - I’m merely giving an opinion - not getting into a row.

I live in Denton. I am dreading Reform getting in. The community Facebook pages are rife with support for Reform, and posts about any other party being blocked, or just lots of “laugh” reactions. Lots of racism present, too.

I think Denton voters will go hard for Reform, but the vote will balance out with the Gorton voters. Gorton is a very diverse area, and I’m not sure they will welcome the fascists. It’s quite telling that all of the Reform candidate’s social media posts for his campaigning has been in Denton rather than Gorton.

I’m personally gutted that Burnham was blocked. He’d have secured my vote for Labour again, in the hope he would’ve gone on to challenge Starmer. I don’t want a Labour government whilst Starmer is in power, but I will need to vote Labour to hopefully stop Reform getting in. In my opinion, Burnham has been great for Manchester, I really like him. We’d have been lucky to have him.

I expect the Tory candidate will highlight Labour's inaction in protecting single sex spaces too. Though think this issue will impact the support for the Green Party more. It is a very interesting by election due to the different demographics in the constituency. I live not far from it and have friends who live there.

That may be true but metro mayors are a real thing with very real powers.

Losing the Mayorality in Manchester to Reform would be a bigger blow to the area than losing the Gorton/Denton seat to them.

She probably will but I don't think that will be the clincher for many voters.

The old line about the economy stupid will be to the fore along with migration and Gaza.

Workers Party not standing a candidate is potentially very big. The best chance Reform had was to split the left vote, as there's no Tory vote to speak of. WP had about 10% last GE.

I think the greens will win. I’m seriously impressed by them. I’ve always been a Labour voter but I think the Green Party are the only chance we have against Reform in general now.

Also a neighbouring constituency dweller and I have seen lots of reform-denton posts on facebook. Agree with PP post it may be a tale of two sides of the constituencies, ultimately itll be determined by which side turns up to vote...

The probably left leaning side is a bigger share of the electorate, so I think it's as much about how that vote is split as anything. If Reform win, they'll do it with less than 50% of votes cast.

@patooties I'm praying you are right. I thought all was lost when Andy kicked off but I'm hoping the candidate configuration favours Labour. Tory and Reform both GC so can make trouble for the Greens who are only used to spouting their nonsense in their bubble, not selling it on the doorstep. Andy needs to get his shoulder behind the wheel and bring some charisma to canvassing.

If Reform do win, they won’t hold it at the next election. Having someone parachuted in from London, who is on record as despising Manchester, doesn’t bode well for his likely capability as a local MP. Reform talk a lot but deliver very little, apart from chaos in the councils they now manage. And as someone living locally to Gorton, Farage is despised here - it would be the Denton side that votes Reform, not the Manchester part of the consituency.

I went today. Loads of activity around Levy / longsight. Not just saying this but the vote seems to be holding up there (although I expect in other bits of the constituency it’s a different story).
I was genuinely surprised at how the vote’s holding up tbh - not many posters taken (the ‘shy Tory’ phenomenon I think which is insane for Labour heartlands but here we are).

nobody likes Keir it seems and one man pulled over to tell us he was angry about Andy being bumped. I still think Labour will come through the middle - we have polling data going back to the ark that others don’t. I might stick £20 on a Labour hold at 5-1 🤣

It's bloody close with Greens currently just in front:

Whose polling is that? The Greens are doing an ‘only the greens can win’ Lib Dem-esque campaign and suggest Labour should step aside (lol) it’s their bloody seat.
i’m thinking the unwashed pink haired SJW’s have little understanding of a ground game - and no data to rely upon.

They probably should given current scandals.

Quite. A Labour Business Secretary was leaking insider Government information, which was used to fund a prolific paedophile. The Labour promote that men to the Lords and then the current government reward him with a key position on the global stage. We need a detailed external review of what Labour have been leaking to US businessmen whilst Mandelson was Ambassador now.

Are you getting your data from Reeves? If so it might be worth checking the maths.

It's an indicator of a potential.protest vote.

Here's the polling source.

Its a bit different to existing polls at the moment as it tries to include tactical voting.

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/gorton-denton

We would have voted for Burnham but are now going for Greens. Worried about it falling to Reform though.

If you vote green then that is what you will get. Regardless of the fake maths / fake data leaflets you’re being bombarded with.
the only people who can beat reform in that seat is Labour. (I’ve been several times this week)

https://manchestermill.co.uk/exclusive-reform-uk-just-broke-electoral-law-in-gorton-denton/

I also live in Denton. We are part of Tameside council. All other areas lie within Manchester City council . We only joined the other areas in 2024.
The other areas are inner city, very diverse. Denton has been a Labour stronghold since 1918.

Labour have sold us down the river. Starmer is prepared to use us a Guinea pig in the war with Reform. He is only interested in his own career and the cost of a mayoral campaign led to him blocking Burnham ( or so he would lead us to believe.)

I haven’t seen one Labour campaigner in my area. Got up this morning to a Royal Mail delivered leaflet from them which says nothing apart from ‘ Don’t believe the lies.’ They can’t even be bothered to hand deliver like the others.
I will never vote Labour again.

The only potential way I will vote is Green and I don’t agree with all their policies. But what else can I do?

It matters because we have been left to the wolves. I don’t want to be dodging Farage in my town centre and his cronies. I am so angry with the Labour Party. They didn’t even pick one of their decent local councillors who lives in the Gorton area and went for the job, who works hard who everyone knows - they chose one from Whalley Range who hasn’t even set foot here.
Probably because she has friends in high places which always helps.

It’s a compromise now isn’t it and I’m sure I’ve seen the Green leader himself saying you don’t have to agree with everything they stand for but that they are the only ones committed to change. I know people try to discredit some of their claims but at least they seem honest and dedicated. Reform are just corrupt.