Importance of Gorton and Denton

[Acommonreader]

I don’t want to get into the candidates or parties here! Please can someone tell me why huge attention is being given to this by election ?
I know that it’s been Labour for a long time but it seems to be publicised as hugely important to all concerned. Is it just a potential indication of future voting or something else?
I have been looking for information but it’s all about the candidates rather than the wider significance of the results beyond the victor. I’m genuinely just try to understand the wider picture. Thanks

I don’t think people have skipped from Labour straight to Restore. More like Tories and Reform to Restore and from Labour to Green.

Absolutely.

My point was more this - if you have a combined 35 for Reform and Restore, the national direction of travel is therefore clear. That creates huge issues for Labour, with Starmer apparently being forced by his back benches to veer left.
We have seen what happens when he has attempted to introduce right wing policies.

This is all a function of what happens when a government is elected under a protest vote. Sooner or later you have to own it.

Labour are losing more to Reform than to the Greens. As tracked in council by-election votes.

People change their minds about stuff, certainly. And they will often make compromises when they believe they have to. But they don't usually abandon their most deeply held values and pivot to the exact opposite values overnight.

Anyway, thank you for the discussion. It has been really fascinating to see that some of you apparently don't have a clue what I'm talking about. I had perhaps rather naively assumed that most people would recognise the concept of deeply held values that are fundamental to how they live their lives - whatever those values might be. I always understood, of course, that some people's values might be totally different from my own. I also understood the idea that not everyone necessarily views political decision-making through the lens of their personal values at all. But it is a complete revelation to me that some of you don't even recognise the concept of having deeply held values that you wouldn't ever really abandon.

Very interesting indeed.

It’s not that either.

It’s just your framing isn’t right to start with, so each post doesn’t work. It’s not about this either.

You can't have it all ways.

Either people have deeply held values which they won't readily abandon, or they don't.

If we accept that many people do have deeply held values that they won't readily walk away from (and I can attest that they do), then it is simply a question of whether people choose to view politics through the lens of those values. Some will, some won't.

I don't think it's rocket science. But you can keep telling me that I'm framing it all wrong if you like. It's a shame that you don't seem to be able to articulate why.

I’m not sure you’ll take on board why but no I haven’t asked for it ‘all ways’, more that I don’t agree with your initial assumptions.

But you can't explain why not?

There is a fundamental assumption here that the values of Labour and Reform are at different ends of the spectrum.

If you think this, it must indeed be difficult to understand why so many people seem to be moving all the way across.

However, Reform has always positioned itself to appeal to both L and C and has taken votes from each in the past. This is not a coincidence.

It looks to me as if it’s all been cleverly thought out by political
geniuses who - key point - completely understand what drives loyal voters for each of L and C.

That holds even down to the colours, red and blue equalling purple, for goodness sake.

That holds even down to the colours, red and blue equalling purple, for goodness sake

What is the significance of purple?

It’s the result of the mix

Yes I get that. But you seemed to imply the colour purple has some sigificance in relation to Reform. You said:That holds even down to the colours, red and blue equalling purple, for goodness sake.

I thought perhaps you had confused Reform's colours with those of UKIP.

Your line starting ‘if we accept’ for example no I don’t agree with what follows, nor the self interest posts nor the deeply held value posts. Basically to have a conversation all of that would have to go and you’d have to back up a bit on the assumptions.

OK, so you don't accept that people vote on the basis of self interest or deeply held beliefs and convictions, how do you think people decide how to vote? I'm genuinely interested.

You’re absolutely right - what I wrote was both confused and confusing. Thank you for clarifying it.

That isn’t true. Erstwhile Labour voters are going LibDem or Green. You may have noticed that the high profile Labour supporter Farage boasted he was about to announce never materialised. Remind me how many Tory MPs, current and sitting, have defected.

Perhaps yes when Reform were new but I feel they hit peak transfer of Labour voters a while back.

We are seeing them mainly move to Green currently.

I cannot imagine this will help Labour in G&D….

Unemployment has risen to its highest level in almost five years, official data shows.

The unemployment rate rose to 5.2pc in the final quarter of last year, which was the highest since January 2021, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

It is the latest sign that the UK’s jobs market is continuing to deteriorate. The unemployment rate has either risen or remained flat since August 2024.
It stood at 5.1pc in the three months to November.

Taxa on something discourages behaviour whether that be cigarettes, cars, alcohol or even speeding fines could be seen as a form of taxation to discourage speeding.

Therefore it doesn't take a genius to figure out that increasing employer NI contributions will discourage the hiring of people and surprise surprise unemployment figures go up.

That is easy to get it’s a pity Labour don’t get it.

On voting idk maybe they think it’ll draw more to Labour, I hope not it’s a terrible spiral to get in to.

They are pushing for one in Dublin 🙄
Sorry to derail

The reason why is that economically left wing politics tends to be based on emotion and economically right wing politics tends to be based on logic, it's classic head vs heart.

So from a left wing perspective why shouldn't all those rich companies pay higher NI contributions - or mean the workers do, so should the rich shareholders/ owners of the companies.

From a right wing perspective- but then you disincentivise companies from hiring workers.

From a left wing perspective- well if they don't hire workers then the company will go bust and then the rich shareholders will lose their money- so they will simply have to absorb the NI increase.

From a right wing perspective- the company will either not grow, scale back its operations in the UK or just move abroad.

Shall we look at those stats more broadly over a longer period?
Unemployment stats UK:

1979 5.4 % (Thatcher)

1980 6.8 %

1981 9.6 %

1982 10.7 %

1983 11.5 %

1984 11.8 %

1985 11.4 %

1986 11.3 %

1987 10.4 %

1988 8.6 %

1989 7.2 %

1990 7.1 %

1991 8.9 %

1992 9.9 %

1993 10.4 %

1994 9.5 %

1995 8.6 %

1996 - 8.1%

1997- 6.9% (Blair)

1998 - 6.2 %

1999 - 6 %

2000 - 5.4%

2001 - 5.1 %

2002 - 5.2 %

2003 - 5.0 %

2004 - 4.8 %

2005 - 4.8 %

2006 - 5.4 %

2007 - 5.3 %

2008 - 5.7 %

2009 - 7.6% (Worldwide Banking crisis)

2010 - 7.9 % (Cameron)

2011 8.1%

2012 7.9%

2013 7.6%

2014 6.2%

2015 5.4%

2016 4.9%

2017 4.4%

2018 4.1%

2019 3.8%

2020 4.6%

2021 4.6%

2022 3.8%

2023 4.1%

2024 4.3%

2025 5.0–5.2%

Do you have dc that might want a job soon @BurntBroccoli?

Youth unemployment has jumped to an 11-year high after Labour increased the cost of hiring staff.

As official data showed 16.1pc of 16 to 24-year-olds seeking work have not yet found a job.

The figure is firmly above the Covid lockdown peak of 15.3pc seen in the summer of 2020, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

You also need to consider years of Tory austerity, Brexit (costing billions extra) and the cost of living crisis being a financial drag on the economy:

less spending → less business expansion → slower hiring

Covid too as people have stopped going out as much in general and have found other ways to entertain themselves.