Importance of Gorton and Denton

[Acommonreader]

I don’t want to get into the candidates or parties here! Please can someone tell me why huge attention is being given to this by election ?
I know that it’s been Labour for a long time but it seems to be publicised as hugely important to all concerned. Is it just a potential indication of future voting or something else?
I have been looking for information but it’s all about the candidates rather than the wider significance of the results beyond the victor. I’m genuinely just try to understand the wider picture. Thanks

The Burnham drama started the focus.

It's going to be a short campaign with three parties - Labour, Reform or the Greens potentially able to win.

Reform and Labour at least will throw the kitchen sink at it. It'll be the most contested, and dirtiest fought, byelection since Bermondsey in the eighties.

It's also a dress rehearsal for how FPTP totally fails once seats are 3 or more way. If it delivers an egregious result on that basis there may be Damascene conversions to PR!!

It’ll be taken as an indicator of Reform’s chances of winning the next election, but just because the media are making a massive deal out of it, you don’t have to.

By-elections and local elections are used as protest votes against the incumbent government and shouldn’t be given undue weight.

Thanks. As I said , just trying to keep informed as this by election is everywhere!

Appreciate the response and information. Thanks

Very sensible and measured response. But the drama llamas will be along soon to predict Starmer being deposed etc.

I think Labour will win it (I am local and engaged in this sphere) I think Labour will come through the middle.
the candidates selected are a gift to the the Labour Party.

If it wasn't for the Burnham/Starmer pycho-drama it wouldn't really matter I don't think anywhere enough. Burnham has made it a must win by-election for starmer, otherwise it would just go in the normal the ruling party normally lose by election bucket.

What is the feeling locally about Burnham not being allowed to stand?

i mean - last week was a shitshow but now people who are engaged in politics are saying ‘just move on’ and have been since the NEC ruling.
He needs to suck it up - quite a few agitating are those on the left of the party and our political enemies.
they also need to stop the briefings against him —and someone needs to take his phone off him— a candidate is selected and we just need to win the election now. That’s it.

Tory candidate (a gender critical lesbian retired police officer) will, one hopes, highlight the complete insanity of the greens on trans rights which will go down like a bucket of sick .
Not sure who Galloway will field.
Labour to come through the middle of the ‘littered by lunatics’ field.

the doorstep is not as bad as we had feared either.

Thank you, that is interesting. The press seems to be presenting it as Reform v Greens, so good to hear some on the ground info.

I think Galloway is considering fielding himself!

Although a Labour campaigner is hardly going to be promoting the message that they think they are going to loss are they?

Well perhaps some local activists from other parties will be along to give their view too.

It's high stakes for the Labour leadership. If they lose then questions will be raised about their decision to block Burnham.

That is something we can almost be certain off!

lol - this is not my first by election rodeo and nobody is more surprised than I am at my change of heart.

This time last week, before the candidates were selected by all parties I thought we had no chance.

I know the green and the Labour candidates- and the area well. I thought we had had it - and now I don’t.

The party benefits zero by a post on Mumsnet from an uncredited source - it’s merely my thoughts on it.
If you like you can post and say ‘green win’ and it would bear the same weight.

really is - Andy should’ve sought advice from the NEC, he didn’t.
the risk could be us losing the mayoralty - arguably worse than a single seat for a few years.
also, this give him legitimacy to criticise from the sidelines.
given how awfully Labour are polling and how little people in general seem to like Keir Starmer - and in the 3rd year of a poorly received government the polls should look a lot worse than they do.

Greater Manchester could have managed without a mayor forever. We didn't want one..it's another layer of bureaucracy that wastes money.

Greens are favourites according to bookies (odds checker)

Greens 6/5
Reform 6/4
Labour 5/1

Yep it was a fairly easy win until Burnham was blocked

Tories and Lib Dems are 600/1!

I think he’s doing a good job - and that’s why he shouldn’t have gone on a doomed run against the all powerful party / NEC.
i don’t know anyone who is angry about us having a mayor - so ‘we’ don’t want one is not exactly true.
the ‘referendum’ I can’t remember exactly but it was about 1.5-2% against having a mayo. That referendum (in case you didn’t know) was only for Manchester - not the entire combined authority of 10 councils.
the devolution bill of 2010 stated a metro mayor - hence us now having one. That ‘one’ is Andy. I only ever see people with this opinion about not ‘wanting one’ or ‘respecting the referendum’ (which was on something completely different) by facebook warriors.

If the Green Party wins it highlights that Labour is losing voters to the left as well as their traditional working class base.

people don’t know what the Green Party are and what they really stand for.
I know there’s a schism between the ecology greens and the pink haired ones…

I imagine the new Tory candidate will be busy telling the large Muslim community exactly what a green MP thinks about men in women’s loos.

all we need to do is campaign and let them shoot each other in the head

I'm in a neighbouring constituency but on some facebook groups that cover the same areas and the comments are pretty bad from all sides, lots of insults being thrown around from the left and the right and not just insulting the candidates but their voters too.

I wouldn't place any bets on who will win it feels too close to call right now but its historically been a very safe labour seat, but now seems labour are disliked- apart from the common complaints about u turns, the WhatsApp messages that made Andrew Gwynne lose the whip also involved a number of labour councillors who are still in post, one of whom refuses to apologise and complains its all the fault of the person who leaked the messages!

As for Andy Burnham he might have had a good chance because although labour, he is seen as one who might pose a leadership challenge to Starmer. However one rumour is that labour blocked him because they would rather risk losing a labour mp than losing the city if it triggered a mayoral contest.

It is a shame because when its over, regardless of who wins the strength of feeling is one of anger and it seems there will be a lot of upset people, which just goes to show how polarised everything is becoming.

Labour do this too going by their tactics. Maybe they’ll come third.