Importance of Gorton and Denton

[Acommonreader]

I don’t want to get into the candidates or parties here! Please can someone tell me why huge attention is being given to this by election ?
I know that it’s been Labour for a long time but it seems to be publicised as hugely important to all concerned. Is it just a potential indication of future voting or something else?
I have been looking for information but it’s all about the candidates rather than the wider significance of the results beyond the victor. I’m genuinely just try to understand the wider picture. Thanks

I’m in Denton, on St Anne’s, and we’ve had Labour campaigners all weekend across the estate. I’ve spoken to a few of them.

The irony is, the Labour campaigners probably work so can’t be out during the working week banging on doors like the Reform ones are.

I am watching the bye election closely, but from a distance, looking for indications of the national mood. Not closely engaged, just interested. I think this is a very telling indicator of the national mind.

It's not going to tell me anything about my local area's likely vote in a bye election. But the result will definitely affect Keir Starmer's relationship with his MPs and his party.

I think there's a lot in that.

Agreed, given it’s the estate where the previous MP lives. However, my granddad is in Haughton Green and also had a knock from Labour over the weekend, so it seems they’re doing the rounds.

(Unless you meant a lot in the last part of my statement.)

Labour will win because they cancelled abolishing the winter fuel allowance and decreasing benefits. Simple.

Mainly about people working!

I am in that constituency and will be voting for Reform. Former Labour voter but can’t in all conscience vote for that shower of slippery fuckers.

Does that mean that you feel Reform aren't slippery and can be relied upon to deliver on their promises?

Does that mean that you feel that not all political parties are slippery and can be trusted?

My experience is that all political parties are slippery and can't be trusted and they have to be because if they ever told the truth then nobody would like what they were saying and they would never get elected to become politicians.

Read the article in The Mill today about the overt racism of Goodwin’s team. A number were kicked out of the Conservatives for racist social media. Do you support that?

Wild - you were never truly Labour if you can shoot to reform

Isn't that a question for BattyTwatty, who is the one who cited slipperiness as their reason for changing voting intentions?

Loads of people who voted Labour in 2024 will vote for other parties, including the pp.

Because it’s effectively a vote on Starmer’s leadership (note that he has been asked not to campaign in G&D).

Labour’s polling is so bad, that they will doubtless try to spin a Green win over Reform, as a Labour victory.

I can see a move to the greens or the Lib Dem’s at a push - but reform? Lol

’lol’ as you like but it’s happening. The flow of votes shows it in the council and by elections. It’s not just to Greens and Lib Dems.

Probably because of Andy Burnham and the fuss around that, obviously it's important to the locals there but it was headlines for several days.

Why can you see a move away from Labour? For what reasons?

I expect lots of former Labour voters will vote Reform because they feel like Labour has let them down and they don't like the 'woke' agenda from the Lib Dems and the Greens.

No one I know who voted Labour and claims to be disappointed is considering supporting Reform. Quite the opposite.

I expect.

Well that's your experience and the people you know. You may not like that some Labour voters will now vote Reform but it is happening. Some people chop and change which party they vote for, Labour wouldn't have won the last election otherwise.

Well if I didn’t like Lib Dem or Green agendas for being too left then I would probably remain happiest with labour - if starting from there and likely being left of centre, or even centre considering there’s no right of centre any more just further right and further right.
Labour to Reform is far too much of a jump unless you’ve fallen for the con Reform is for the working man - which can happen (see Brexit!).
But I do doubt major numbers of labour voters would move drastically to the right now (which would need to happen as centre right has gone). Those who did move to the right (or to the populist agenda) did so in 2019 mainly.

Also to add, I have always voted Labour, was a member until Lisa Nandy said GC women shouldn't be in the party. I wouldn't vote Labour if there was an election soon due to them ignoring child abuse apologists, would never vote Reform, disgusted with all of the main parties.

The voting has been tracked and more have switched from Labour to Reform than any other so it’s probably not that relevant.

So, a handful of datapoints, then.

Hardly compelling.